The Texas Rangers have looked more like the defending World Series champs in recent weeks, but are coming off a 6-3 loss to the Houston Astros as they prepare for the second game in a three-game series.
Despite the loss, the MLB odds have the Rangers as a -120 moneyline favorite for Round 2 against the Astros.
Find out where my best bets lie in our Rangers vs. Astros predictions and MLB picks on Saturday, July 13.
Rangers vs Astros prediction
My best bet
Corey Seager Over 1.5 total bases (-105 at bet365)
Best odds available in your region
My analysis
Corey Seager’s season has mirrored the Texas Rangers’ coming off last year’s World Series win. Clearly Seager and this team were dealing with a hangover, but with a little bit of time, like with all hangovers, it has passed.
The two-time World Series MVP has resumed his All-Star ways after dealing with plenty of inconsistency over the first three months of the season. He’s been dominant in July, slashing .361/.410/.750 with three dingers in nine games.
He’s already flashed the goods against Houston, too. In Friday’s matchup, he went 2-for-4 with a home run and three RBIs. In this month alone he’s got nearly as many total bases (27) in nine games as he did in all of June (28).
Seager has had the Houston Astros’ number all season. He’s slashing .355/.459/.516 in 31 plate appearances, and righty Spencer Arrighetti appears to be his next victim. Arrighetti is struggling this season with a 5.96 ERA and 82 hits allowed across 74 innings.
The rookie has allowed six homers in his last seven starts and has given up at least six hits in back-to-back outings. With Arrighetti leaning primarily on his four-seamer (42.2%), he’s set to struggle against Seager.
The Rangers’ star has a .616 xSLG and 63% hard-hit rate against four-seamers this season with 16 of his 29 extra-base hits coming against fastballs. The only pitch he’s added a higher run value against than the four-seamer is the curveball, Arrighetti’s second-most used pitch (20.4%).
Seager has been mashing curves with a .385 average and .769 SLG. That spells trouble for Arrighetti with Seager clearly returning to All-Star form and playing his best against Texas’ AL West rival.
Rangers vs Astros same-game parlay (SGP)
Corey Seager Over 1.5 total bases
Josh Smith Over 0.5 hits
Jose Altuve Over 0.5 hits
While Seager’s play has coincided with the Rangers winning games, Josh Smith’s play has been nearly as important. He’s the most underrated player on the team and leads Texas in batting average (.295) and sits second in hits (83).
With Smith batting .312 since the start of June, he should be able to come away with at least one hit off Arrighetti. If Seager and Smith are cooking, Houston will need Jose Altuve to do the same.
The 34-year-old has been ageless this season and is batting .328 since the start of June and helping cover for the fact Kyle Tucker is still out. While Nathan Eovaldi is a tricky pitcher to hit, Altuve is batting .330 with a .602 SLG off four-seamers, his most used pitch (36.6%). And the last time Eovaldi started against Houston, Altuve finished the game 3-for-5.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Rangers vs Astros odds
Rangers vs Astros live odds
Rangers vs Astros opening odds
- Run line: Texas -1.5 (+140) | Houston +1.5 (-165)
- Moneyline: Texas -120 | Houston +100
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 (-110) | Under 8.5 (-110)
Rangers vs Astros spread and Over/Under analysis
- Coming off a loss to the Astros on Friday, the Rangers opened as a -115 to -125 moneyline favorite and remain there.
- While Texas is just 44-49 on the season, they’ve won seven of their last 11, but still sit behind the 49-44 Astros in the AL West.
- The Over/Under opened at 8.5 and has seen minimal movement at most books.
- These are two of the worst Over teams in the league, with both owning a 38-52-4 record when betting the Over.
Rangers vs Astros trend
The Rangers have hit the moneyline in 5 of their last 7 games (+2.70 Units / 29% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Rangers vs. Astros
Rangers vs Astros game info
| Location: | Minute Maid Park, Houston, TX |
| Date: | Saturday, 7-13-2024 |
| First pitch: | 4:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Bally Southwest, Space City Network |
| Rangers starting pitcher: | Nathan Eovaldi (5-3, 3.15 ERA) |
| Astros starting pitcher: | Spencer Arrighetti (4-7, 6.13 ERA) |
Rangers vs Astros latest injuries
Rangers vs Astros weather
Not intended for use in MA.
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