The Texas Rangers and Atlanta Braves begin a three-game series at Truist Park on Friday night.
This is a marquee matchup between two of the top teams in baseball, with the Rangers looking to defend their World Series and Atlanta boasting the second-best MLB odds to win this year's Fall Classic.
MLB betting lines have the Braves installed as a -210 favorite for this showdown, with the O/U listed at 9.5. Here are my Rangers vs. Braves predictions and MLB picks for April 19.
Rangers vs Braves prediction
My best bet
Marcell Ozuna Over 1.5 total bases (-115 at DraftKings)
Best odds available in your region
My analysis
The Atlanta Braves lead the majors in scoring (6.35) and OPS (.841), and a big reason for that has been the play of Marcell Ozuna. In the middle of a stacked lineup, Ozuna can sometimes be overlooked, but he's easily been Atlanta's top hitter this year.
The hard-hitting DH has racked up a team-high 52 total bases, ranking second in the majors in slugging percentage (.732), and enters Friday in the Top 5 percentile in barrel rate.
Ozuna has a favorable matchup tonight with the Texas Rangers sending Andrew Heaney to the mound. Heaney had a solid 4.15 ERA in 147.2 innings last year, but he has yet to have a quality start this season, pitching to a 6.75 ERA across three outings.
Ozuna hits the ball extremely well against southpaws like Heaney, slugging .636 versus lefties since the start of last year. Heaney also has a limited arsenal and relies primarily on his four-seamer. Ozuna crushes those offerings, slugging .889 against four-seamers this season.
Keep riding the red-hot Ozuna and take the Over 1.5 on his total bases.
Rangers vs Braves same-game parlay (SGP)
Marcell Ozuna Over 1.5 total bases
Braves team total Over 5.5 runs
Ronald Acuna Jr. Over 0.5 runs
Ozuna isn't the only Atlanta batter who rakes against lefties like Heaney. The Braves are batting .272 versus lefties this season, and in 2023, they led the majors with an incredible .521 slugging percentage versus southpaws.
This is a loaded Braves lineup that ranks first in the majors in hard-hit rate (46.3%) and average exit velocity (90.5 mph) while ranking fourth in barrel rate (8.7%). If Ozuna has a good night at the plate, the rest of the Atlanta order will also put up plenty of runs against Heaney and the Rangers subpar bullpen.
That also means there's a good chance that Ronald Acuna will plate a run. Acuna is fifth in the majors with 17 runs, having touched home plate in six of his last nine games. The four-time All-Star was named the NL MVP last year after plating 149 runs — the second-most scored in a season since 1950.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Rangers vs Braves odds
Rangers vs Braves live odds
Rangers vs Braves opening odds
- Run line: Texas +1.5 (-120) | Atlanta -1.5 (+100)
- Moneyline: Texas +165 | Atlanta -200
- Over/Under: Over 9.5 (-110) | Under 9.5 (-110)
Rangers vs Braves spread and Over/Under analysis
- Early money has come in on the Braves, who have gone 186-111 at home since 2020.
- Atlanta is starting veteran southpaw Chris Sale (4.58 ERA), who is coming off a rough outing but was solid in his first two starts of the year.
- The Braves are coming off a six-game road trip where they went 5-1, with their only loss being a game in which Sale started.
- The Rangers were fourth in the majors with an OPS of .789 against southpaws last year, but that number has dropped to just .642 this season.
Rangers vs Braves trend
The Braves have hit the team total Over in 36 of their last 55 games at home (+13.64 Units / 21% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Rangers vs. Braves
Rangers vs Braves game info
| Location: | Truist Park, Cumberland, GA |
| Date: | Friday, 4-19-2024 |
| First pitch: | 7:20 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Apple TV+ |
| Rangers starting pitcher: | Andrew Heaney (0-2, 6.75 ERA) |
| Braves starting pitcher: | Chris Sale (1-1, 4.58 ERA) |
Rangers vs Braves latest injuries
Rangers vs Braves weather
Not intended for use in MA.
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