After staggering into the All-Star break dropping eight of 12, the New York Yankees got their second half off to a promising start with a 6-1 win over the Tampa Bay Rays. The second of their 4-game set goes Saturday afternoon in the Bronx, with the Yanks pegged as -155 moneyline favorites in the MLB odds.
Can the Rays — hovering around .500 and a fringe playoff contender — start making a move against the current holder of the top Wild Card spot in the AL? Read my MLB picks and Rays vs. Yankees predictions below to find out.
Rays vs Yankees prediction
My best bet
Rays moneyline (+130 at DraftKings)
My analysis
It might very well be that the best shot for the Tampa Bay Rays to beat the New York Yankees is to beat them with offense. That’s not an easy task, especially for a squad that’s third last in runs scored this season.
Plus, they’re up against a New York side that ranks first in runs scored, second in home runs, and inside baseball’s Top 6 in on-base percentage, slugging percentage, and OPS. However, the Rays will be facing lefty Nestor Cortes, and they might be catching him at just the right time.
Tampa lit him up in the final game before the All-Star break, chasing him after just 4 1/3 innings, tagging him for seven hits and five earned runs, handing him his third loss in his last four starts. Cortes has allowed 3+ earned runs in each of those losses and has been taken yard in four straight starts. He’s currently 4-8 on the year, though with a reasonable 3.67 ERA.
Conversely, Tampa will trot out 23-year-old Taj Bradley. The second-year man is coming off a brilliant win over the Guardians, where he threw seven innings of five-hit ball, giving up no runs while fanning eight in a 2-0 victory.
Since getting detonated by the Orioles on June 1, a forgettable 3 1/3 innings where he was drilled for nine hits, nine earned runs, and four homers, Bradley has surrendered one earned run or less in six of seven starts — a total of five runs.
It will be the second time he’s faced the Yankees this season, taking the loss in his first start of the year, where he deserved a better fate. Bradley threw six innings, giving up just four hits and one run in an eventual 2-0 defeat.
These teams have alternated wins in seven straight games, and Tampa seems to have the right matchups on both sides of the field to make it eight.
Rays vs Yankees same-game parlay (SGP)
Rays moneyline
Randy Arozarena Over 1.5 total bases
Juan Soto Over 1.5 total bases
The Rays have hit Cortes hard, with three players with at least two homers against him, including outfielder Randy Arozarena. He was one of the few Rays to see success in the series opener, picking up a hit, giving him at least a base hit in 13 of his last 16 games. That’s also hits in six straight against New York.
He has three home runs and eight RBI against Cortes. One of those long balls came in the last matchup, as Arozarena ripped his 12th long ball of the year.
For the Yankees, Juan Soto has been a multi-hit machine of late. Soto kicked off his second half with a 4-for-4 effort, driving in a run and scoring another. In the last seven games, he has had 2+ hits six times, yet Soto is still getting plus-money odds for going Over 1.5 total bases — a number he’s topped in each of his last three games against Tampa.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Rays vs Yankees odds
Rays vs Yankees live odds
Rays vs Yankees opening odds
- Run line: Tampa Bay +1.5 (-170) | New York -1.5 (+145)
- Moneyline: Tampa Bay +120 | New York -140
- Over/Under: Over 8 | Under 8
Rays vs Yankees spread and Over/Under analysis
- New York is 4-2 in its last six as betting favorites against Tampa Bay.
- The Rays have lost four straight road games.
- The Yankees have cashed the Under in three of their last four.
- Tampa has gone Under the total in five of its last six.
Rays vs Yankees trend
The Yankees have lost nine straight games as favorites following a win. Find more MLB betting trends for Rays vs. Yankees
Rays vs Yankees game info
| Location: | Yankee Stadium, Bronx, NY |
| Date: | Saturday, 7-20-2024 |
| First pitch: | 2:05 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Bally Sports Sun, YES |
| Rays starting pitcher: | Taj Bradley (4-4, 2.90 ERA) |
| Yankees starting pitcher: | Nestor Cortes (4-8, 3.67 ERA) |
Rays vs Yankees latest injuries
Rays vs Yankees weather
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