The Boston Red Sox face off against the Houston Astros in MLB action this Tuesday. Houston has won 11 of its last 12 games and my Red Sox vs. Astros predictions for today expect that hot streak to continue.
Here are my best free MLB picks for this AL showdown on August 20.
Red Sox vs Astros prediction
My best bet
Astros moneyline (-120 at bet365)
My analysis
The Boston Red Sox are sending Nick Pivetta to the mound and he has a 4.49 ERA through 19 starts while allowing two homers in each of his last four outings. Pivetta ranks in the Bottom 10th percentile in ground ball rate and barrel rate while sitting in the Bottom 30th percentile in average exit velocity.
Things could get significantly worse once Pivetta comes out of the game since Boston's bullpen has an MLB-worst 6.42 ERA since the start of July. The Houston Astros are third in the majors in batting average (.261) and 10th in OPS (.740), and they should be able to put up runs at home here.
To be fair, Boston's lineup is slightly better, ranking second in BA (.262) and third in OPS (.768). But Houston's pitching staff is significantly better.
Ronel Blanco is toeing the rubber for the Astros today and he has a sizzling 2.89 ERA with a 1.01 WHIP through 23 starts. Houston's relievers have also been sharp, pitching to a 3.22 ERA since the start of July.
With the Astros boasting a massive edge on the mound and playing at home, back them at close to a pick'em price.
Red Sox vs Astros same-game parlay (SGP)
Astros moneyline
Yainer Diaz Over 1.5 H+R+RBI
Ronel Blanco Over 1.5 walks allowed
Yainer Diaz has excellent reverse platoon splits, batting .305 against righties, and he thrives at Minute Maid Park where he slashes .321/.343/.502. The 25-year-old catcher has been on fire since the start of June, slugging .532 with 47 RBIs in 61 games.
Blanco has an impressive OBA of just .179 but he can struggle with his control. He has walked 2+ batters in 17 of 23 starts this year.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Red Sox vs Astros odds
Red Sox vs Astros live odds
Red Sox vs Astros opening odds
- Run line: Boston +1.5 (-190) | Houston -1.5 (+155)
- Moneyline: Boston +105 | Houston -135
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 (+100) | Under 8.5 (-120)
Red Sox vs Astros spread and Over/Under analysis
- Early money has come in on Boston, slimming Houston's price from -135 to -120.
- Despite averaging a whopping 5.93 runs per game since the All-Star break, the Red Sox have gone just 12-17.
- The Astros opened this series with a 5-4 victory last night and they have the best record in the AL West at 68-56.
- The Astros are 7-0 in the last seven meetings between these teams even though they haven't been bigger than a -141 favorite in any of those contests.
Red Sox vs Astros trend
The Astros have hit the moneyline in 35 of their last 51 games (+14.75 Units / 20% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Red Sox vs. Astros.
Red Sox vs Astros game info
| Location: | Minute Maid Park, Houston, TX |
| Date: | Tuesday, 8-20-2024 |
| First pitch: | 8:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: | NESN, SCHN |
| Red Sox starting pitcher: | Nick Pivetta (5-7, 4.44 ERA) |
| Astros starting pitcher: | Ronel Blanco (9-6, 3.02 ERA) |
Red Sox vs Astros latest injuries
Red Sox vs Astros weather
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
