The New York Yankees look to be coming out of their funk with some better showings on offense over the weekend and head into a six-game homestand with two wins in their last three contests.
Waiting on the other side will be the Cincinnati Reds, who have been quiet at the plate over the last couple of weeks and whose fate will lie in the hands of one of the worst pitchers in the National League.
My Reds vs Yankees predictions break down whether or not New York can find a way to pick up another convincing win and get one of its coldest starters back on track.
Let’s take a deeper look at my MLB picks for Reds vs Yankees on Tuesday, July 2.
Reds vs Yankees prediction
My best bet
Yankees -0.5 First Five (-137 at BetRivers)
My analysis
Luis Gil has done a lot of good this year, but the month of June has not been kind to him. Even with a strong start to open things up in Minnesota, he’s stumbled to a 6.45 ERA and has been rocked in back-to-back outings to the tune of 12 runs over 5 2/3 innings against the Orioles and Mets.
The offense waiting for him on Tuesday is far less imposing than those two powerhouses, with the Cincinnati Reds sitting 23rd in baseball in wRC+ over the last two weeks. It can produce some power, sure, and that’s a concern when you’re talking about a fly ball pitcher in Gil, but the Reds have not only struggled in that split but have also failed to do the one thing that would really scare the right-hander, and that’s walk.
Free passes have been the biggest issue for Gil, so against a Reds team walking at just a 5.7% clip over the last 14 days he shouldn’t afford the same number of baserunners as he has in recent outings. He’ll also encounter a team that is dead last in average and OPS to fly-ball types this season.
On the opposite end of the spectrum, Graham Ashcraft has been abysmal this season with a .281 Expected Batting Average that puts him in the bottom 10% of all pitchers, a signal that his ground-balling ways aren’t exactly setting him up for success.
The New York Yankees are third in hits and slugging against ground-ball arms and should have no issues doing damage against an arm that was demoted to Triple-A earlier in the season, only to reappear with the Reds after some injuries.
I’ll happily lay the half-run through five innings and fade Ashcraft into oblivion.
Reds vs Yankees same-game parlay (SGP)
Yankees moneyline
Graham Ashcraft Over 4.5 hits
Juan Soto 2+ total bases
Anthony Volpe Over 0.5 hits
Sportsbooks don’t like to allow us to play the first five innings in Same-Game Parlays, so we’ll have to opt for the juiced Yankees moneyline here and look to an extra leg to deliver us some better odds.
That should be no worry, however, as Ashcraft should be more than generous enough to us on Tuesday with the expected numbers we’ve laid out above. The Yankees are sporting a handsome .294 average versus ground-ball pitchers, and with that, we can expect Ashcraft to allow five or more hits for what would be the 12th time in 15 starts this year.
Juan Soto is one guy who should benefit from this game. Not only does he appear to be healed from his hand injury with three hits (including a homer) over his past two games, but he’s had the fifth-most hits in baseball against ground-ballers this year to post a silly .522 average. He’s also hit .306 against these types in his career, shattering his marks against fly-ball pitchers and carrying a considerably heavier slugging percentage as well.
Anthony Volpe is ice cold at the moment, but he’s helped Soto in leading the charge against these ground-ball arms by hitting .340 in the split. With the number of expected hits coming against the Reds’ starter, I think this is as good a spot as any for the Yankees’ leadoff man to turn things around.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Reds vs Yankees odds
Reds vs Yankees live odds
Reds vs Yankees opening odds
- Run line: Cincinnati +1.5 (-115) | New York -1.5 (-105)
- Moneyline: Cincinnati +164 | New York -179
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 | Under 8.5
Reds vs Yankees spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Yankees opened up as -200 favorites here, and after the Reds received some considerable line movement early in the betting window, New York has been pushed back down all the way to around -210.
- The total remains at the opening number of 8.5 runs, though there’s been some slight movement towards the Over.
- DraftKings has taken 91% of the moneyline bets on the Yankees and 85% of the cash.
- The Over has accounted for 81% of the tickets and an even-stronger 90% of the handle.
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Reds vs Yankees trend
The New York Yankees have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 34 of their last 52 games (+14.90 Units / 24% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Reds vs. Yankees.
Reds vs Yankees game info
| Location: | Yankee Stadium, Bronx, NY |
| Date: | Tuesday, 7-2-2024 |
| First pitch: | 7:05 p.m. ET |
| TV: | BSOH, YES |
| Reds starting pitcher: | Graham Ashcraft (4-4, 5.45 ERA) |
| Yankees starting pitcher: | Luis Gil (9-3, 3.15 ERA) |
Reds vs Yankees latest injuries
Reds vs Yankees weather
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