Luka Doncic and the Dallas Mavericks can take a firm grip on this chippy first-round series today as they host a Los Angeles Clippers team sweating on the health of Kawhi Leonard.
My Clippers vs Mavericks predictions focus on Paul George instead, as my NBA picks outline just how PG will shred Dallas in this April 28 matchup.
Clippers vs Mavericks predictions
My best bet
Paul George Over 20.5 points (-108 at Caesars)
Best odds available in your region
My analysis
With Kawhi Leonard hampered by a knee injury, it’s time for Paul George to deliver his best game of this series. George was steady in the two games in L.A., but he was a non-factor on Friday, finishing with just seven points on 3-for-11 shooting while battling foul trouble.
James Harden has gone past 20 points in all three games so far, so George doesn’t have to shoulder an unsustainable workload, but a repeat of his PG13’s Game 3 performance will likely put L.A. in a 3-1 hole.
Though the Dallas Mavericks have tightened the screws defensively, it’s not as if they've elite perimeter stoppers, and I’m looking for George — who hasn’t yet agreed on a contract extension with the Los Angeles Clippers — to be aggressive early to set the tone.
That means seeking out mismatches against Kyrie Irving or the Mavs’ big men — and a volume similar to Game 1 where he scored 22 points on 20 shots. The time for deferring is over.
Given the stakes, he may also see 40+ minutes of action, especially if Amir Coffey and Terance Mann struggle offensively again. It’s almost a must-win game for the Clippers, and I’m banking on George to cash in this Over as the focal point of the visitors’ offense.
Clippers vs Mavericks same-game parlay (SGP)
Paul George Over 20.5 points
P.J. Washington Over 1.5 made threes
Clippers +6
P.J. Washington has been walking into an endless supply of open shots ever since the trade that brought him to Dallas, and I’m targeting his sharpshooting to build out my SGP.
With Doncic and Irving at the controls, scrambling defenses are continually helping off the rest of the Mavs’ shooters, and I see Washington taking advantage this afternoon — particularly with Tim Hardaway Jr. listed as doubtful.
I’m looking past Washington’s 0-for-4 dud from 3-point range on Friday and picking him to nail at least two triples, something he’s done in 11 of his past 14 outings.
Even if Leonard is limited or unavailable, this still feels like a tight battle, with the Clippers likely to have an extra layer of desperation with their season on the brink.
The ATS line feels a little high, so I’m grabbing the points with the visitors and counting on George, Harden, Russell Westbrook, and Norman Powell to keep L.A. within striking distance, though they’ll need to find their stroke from downtown after back-to-back shaky outings.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Clippers vs Mavericks odds
Clippers vs Mavericks live odds
Get the latest Clippers vs Mavericks NBA playoff odds for Game 4.
Clippers vs Mavericks opening odds
- Spread: Los Angeles +5.5 (-105) | Dallas -5.5 (-115)
- Moneyline: Los Angeles +196 | Dallas -222
- Over/Under: Over 208.5 (-106) | Under 208.5 (-106)
Clippers vs Mavericks spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Mavs were 4.5-point favorites heading into Game 3 and that number started at 5.5 for Game 4 before inching up with the pessimism over Leonard’s knee.
- The Clippers have been a steady road team all season, winning 26 of their last 36 contests away from Crypto.com Arena.
- The Under has been the way to go when these teams collide, going 9-1 in the past 10 meetings, and all three games in this series.
- the O/U line has plummeted since sitting at 221.5 points for Game 1, and it’s fair to wonder whether the 209.5-point line is an overreaction with both offenses capable of heating up.
Clippers vs Mavericks trend
Despite all of their offensive firepower, the Mavericks have cashed in the team total Under in 29 of their past 44 contests. Find more NBA betting trends for Clippers vs. Mavericks.
Clippers vs Mavericks game info
| Location: | American Airlines Center, Dallas, TX |
| Date: | Sunday, 4-28-2024 |
| Tip-off: | 3:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ABC |
Clippers vs Mavericks latest injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Covers may receive advertising commissions for visits to a sportsbook or betting site.
