The Toronto Raptors will host franchise folk hero Kawhi Leonard and the Los Angeles Clippers on Friday night.
Leonard and the Clippers have looked like one of the best teams in basketball over the past two months and are starting to look like a true contender to get to the Finals, and the NBA Championship odds agree.
On the other hand, while showing some promise at times, the new-look Raptors are still trying to find their footing, and the NBA odds for this game illustrate the gap between these teams.
Toronto is roughly an 8-point home underdog, and to make matters worse, Immanuel Quickley will sit this one out. Do the Raps have a chance to keep this close and cover the spread?
I break down this matchup and bring you the best bet, plus a same-game parlay, in my NBA picks and predictions for Clippers vs. Raptors on January 26.
Clippers vs Raptors odds
Clippers vs Raptors predictions
Kawhi Leonard and Paul George are healthy. James Harden has figured out how to play with his new team. And Russell Westbrook brings energy off the bench. Simply put, the Los Angeles Clippers are going to be a problem.
Since the start of December, the Clippers have the NBA’s best winning percentage, going 21-4, fueled by what is arguably the best offense going in the Association. This team has really found its groove, leading the NBA in offensive rating, effective field goal percentage, and 3-point shooting percentage over this impressive run.
Meanwhile, the luster of the Toronto Raptors’ recent roster makeover has worn off. The Raptors have now lost seven of their last eight games overall, which includes coming off an embarrassing 108-100 loss to the shell of the Memphis Grizzlies.
Toronto’s biggest problem over this stretch has been its defense. The Raps haven’t been able to stop anyone from getting buckets, ranking 26th in defensive rating since the start of January (when they traded OG Anunoby to the New York Knicks). In exchange, the offense has been a little better (16th in offensive rating), but unfortunately, they will be without one of their better scorers, as Immanuel Quickley will sit this one out with a quad injury.
The other area Toronto has struggled lately has been on the glass. The Raptors have the third-worst rebounding rate in the NBA since the start of January. Not having starting center Jakob Poeltl for the last eight games and trading away Pascal Siakam is certainly not going to help their rebounding moving forward.
Tonight, they go against a Clippers team that ranks 10th in rebounding rate. That has me looking at Kawhi Leonard odds for his rebounding prop, sitting at 6.5 for this matchup.
Leonard has always been a sound rebounder during his career, and this year is no different, averaging 6.2 per game. But he’s put in more work on the glass of late, bumping that number up to 6.8 over his last 10 games, and has pulled down seven or more boards six times over that stretch.
When you also consider the fact Toronto will be without one of its best shooters in Quickley, which could result in more bricks from the Raps and in turn, more rebounds, I’m backing Kawhi to go Over his rebounding prop. Board man gets boards.
My best bet: Kawhi Leonard Over 6.5 rebounds (-115 at PointsBet)
Clippers vs Raptors same-game parlay
Kawhi Leonard Over 6.5 rebounds
Raptors Team Total Under 114.5
Gary Trent Jr. Over 12.5 points
Leonard should go Over 6.5 rebounds, thanks in part to a bunch of Raptors bricks tonight. Those bricks also have me thinking this will be a low-scoring game for Toronto.
The Raptors rank dead last in the NBA when it comes to effective field goal percentage over the last six games, putting up 106.7 points per game over that stretch, and will play this game without Quickley. While the Clippers tend to overwhelm opposing teams with their offense, they clearly have great individual defenders and rank 13th in defensive rating. Add the Raps to stay Under their team total in this one.
But with Quickley out, someone on the Raptors will have to step up, and I’m looking at Gary Trent Jr. The Toronto shooting guard loves it when his usage rate goes up. Trent is a sharpshooter who's draining 41.5% of his attempts from 3-point range. He is averaging 11.4 points per game, but that bumps up to 14.3 points as a starter. Give me Trent to go Over 12.5 points to close out this SGP.
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Clippers vs Raptors spread and Over/Under analysis
The Raptors opened this NBA matchup as 7.5-point home underdogs, and not surprisingly, the early money has faded them to +8.
It makes sense. The team is in a slump, doesn’t play good defense, and will be without one of their primary shot-creators in Quickley. It's just hard to see the Raptors keeping up with the Clippers in this matchup, even at home.
This is particularly true when you consider that this Los Angeles team has taken care of business, going 9-3 ATS in its last 12 games overall.
The total hit the board at 233.5 and has already been bet up two points to sit at 235.5 as of early Friday afternoon. That said, at this new number, I would consider the other side.
I’ve broken down how buckets could be an issue for the Raptors, and the onus would be on the Clippers to do the heavy lifting if the game were to go Over this number. The sputtering Raptors offense has resulted in them hitting the Under in five consecutive games. I prefer Toronto to go Under its team total but would lean to the Under on the full game as well.
Clippers vs Raptors betting trend to know
Raptors have hit the Team Total Under in 20 of their last 28 games at home for +10.7 units. Find more NBA betting trends for Clippers vs. Raptors.
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Clippers vs Raptors game info
| Location: | Scotiabank Arena, City, State/Province |
| Date: | Friday, January 26, 2024 |
| Tip-off: | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Bally Sports Southern California, Sportsnet |
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