Lakers vs Warriors Odds, Picks, and Predictions Tonight: Don't Pass up This Podziemski Prop

The NBA season resumes with a bang on Thursday, February 22 with a 12-game slate headlined by a national TV showdown between the Los Angeles Lakers and the Golden State Warriors.

The Lakers are winners of three straight and are hoping for a late-season push to escape the play-in tournament. The Warriors are trailing behind them in the standings but are playing at perhaps an even higher level, which ensures that sparks should fly as the opponents from last year’s Western Conference semifinal square off once more.

The NBA odds for Thursday’s clash have shifted decisively in favor of Golden State with news of LeBron James’ absence, but I’m looking elsewhere for value.

My NBA picks and predictions for Lakers vs. Warriors believe Brandin Podziemski should continue to thrive as one of Golden State’s primary playmakers.

Lakers vs Warriors odds

Lakers vs Warriors predictions

One of the NBA’s most popular buzzwords these days is something called .5 basketball. In essence, it means that a player should drive, pass, or shoot within half a second of touching the ball. 

It’s about keeping the offense flowing while creating and pressing the advantages that come with that. It’s been a staple of the Golden State Warriors the entirety of the Steve Kerr era, and in Brandin Podziemski they have found another player that slots perfectly into that system.

It’s not just that Podz is incredibly skilled, capable of scoring, rebounding, and increasingly, passing. It’s that he does everything so quickly. The word connectivity is also buzzy these days, but the way that Podz helps flow into and out of actions seamlessly by quickly passing, cutting, and screening elevates everything the Warriors do.

Now that Chris Paul has been out a while and Podziemski has earned Kerr’s trust, he’s being given increasing prominence in the offense. Kerr went as far as to elevate Brandin into the starting lineup over Klay Thompson.

Podz is getting significant on ball reps as the primary playmaker, setting up Steph coming off screens, working with Dario Saric coming off for pick and pops, and diming up the streaking Jonathan Kuminga in transition. 

He’s shown remarkable skill as a passer for a rookie. He’s comfortable working off the pick and roll and slinging one handed pass to the far corner. That’s a difficult pass for anyone, but he makes it seem natural. 

It’s all added up to an impressive 5.3 assists per 36 minutes overall and a 24.3% assist rate since the beginning of February.

Podz being a willing screen setter himself allows him to function in a lot of give-and-go style actions, a twist on the split cuts the Splash Brothers became famous for. 

Another way Podz generates so many assists is by leveraging his work on the offensive glass. 

Defenses are never so vulnerable to an open three as they are the moment a shot comes off the rim, and Podz always looks to either crash or box out for solid position when a shot goes up. He turns that into a couple of assists per game by just tipping the ball out to the perimeter.

Now that Brandin is a full-time starter, and at least until Chris Paul is back running the second unit offense, the opportunities for Podziemski to produce assists are going to be plentiful. He’s averaging 6.9 assists over his last five games and has seven or more in four of those five. 

These Brandin Podziemski odds don’t properly reflect his increasing command of the Warriors offense, and the significant plus money value is too good to pass up.

My best bet: Brandin Podziemski Over 5.5 assists (+140 at DraftKings)

Lakers vs Warriors same-game parlay

Brandin Podziemski Over 5.5 assists

Draymond Green Over 7.5 rebounds

Klay Thompson Over 15.5 points

+550 at DraftKings

With the news that LeBron James will miss Thursday’s game and with several other Los Angeles Lakers players questionable, I’ve decided to go with an all Warriors same-game parlay.

In addition to liking Podziemski to keep it rolling as a playmaker, I liked what I saw in Klay’s first game off the bench and believe Draymond Green should have another strong night on the boards.

Even though he’s struggled mightily this season, it was still a bit of a shock when it was announced that Klay was out of the starting lineup. Instead of sulking, Klay turned in his best game of the season. 

Thompson had 35 points on 13 of 22 from the field, including a blistering 7 of 13 from downtown. It’s not that Thompson has forgotten how to shoot, but some athletic decline has combined with forcing bad shots to leave Klay well below his career averages. It seemed that going to the bench helped Klay mentally reset, and with the Lakers' limited defensive options on the wing I like him to produce well off the bench again.

Green’s return to form has rescued the Warriors season. And despite Anthony Davis’ significant size advantage, Draymond has proven he can rebound against this Lakers team. 

He had 14 rebounds when these two teams last played, and 11 came in regulation. He also had nine or more rebounds in four of the six games they played each other in the Conference semifinal and is averaging 8.2 in February.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Lakers vs Warriors spread and Over/Under analysis

The Warriors opened between -3 and -3.5 favorites for Thursday, which has since risen to between -6 to -6.5 once it was reported that LeBron would officially be out due to injury.

The one time these two teams played this season was a double-overtime instant classic, with the Lakers ultimately capturing a one-point victory. The Warriors have suffered quite a few heartbreaking losses at home and are just 7-14 against the spread in Chase Center this season.

Obviously, LeBron’s absence changes things dramatically, as does the Warriors' more full-throated embrace of the youth movement by empowering Kuminga and Podziemski.

That shift has coincided with Golden State playing their best basketball in this recent stretch. The Warriors are a sterling 8-2 against the spread in their last 10 games and suddenly look like a playoff threat.

The Lakers have also played better of late, winning six of their last seven. They haven’t been a strong road team, however, going just 12-16 ATS in away games this season.

The total for Lakers at Warriors has seen a slight bump to 242.5 after opening at 241.5 at most sportsbooks.

The Lakers and Warriors had been two of the league’s most potent offenses in the run up to the All-Star break. In the two weeks before All-Star the Lakers had a 128.8 offensive rating, second best in the NBA, and the Warriors ranked fifth per Cleaning the Glass.

Those numbers are overstating things a little. Neither team played many elite defenses, or at least not healthy ones, in that time. The Lakers are a below average offense, and they’ll likely be worse than that without LeBron.

Still, oddsmakers have consistently underestimated the Lakers' offense (or overrated their defense) in away games this season. The Over is 20-8 in Lakers road games.

The Warriors for their part have been on fire at home which has contributed to Overs cashing in 18 of their 28 games in Chase Center this season.

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Lakers vs Warriors betting trend to know

The Warriors are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games. Find more NBA betting trends for Lakers vs. Warriors.

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