The Indiana Pacers shoved a pile of chips into the center of the proverbial table when they traded for Pascal Siakam, and they're still waiting to get a good look at that hand, a wait that will extend into next week with star point guard Tyrese Haliburton once again sidelined by a hamstring injury. If Haliburton was in the lineup, tonight’s matchup with the Denver Nuggets would have been a tantalizing clash in styles.
Instead, the Pacers are deserved home NBA odds underdogs, on a bit of a lull going against the defending champions amidst a quiet surge. Is there an avenue for Indiana to hang with Denver tonight?
Let’s ponder that value in our free NBA picks and predictions as we preview Nuggets vs. Pacers on January 23, with tip set for 7:00 ET.
Nuggets vs Pacers odds
Nuggets vs Pacers predictions
Gambling 101: Buy on bad news, sell on good. It’s a more polite and fun way of saying "fade the public".
Haliburton is an absolute superstar who has taken the NBA by storm this season. The fourth-year guard’s absence absolutely should impact a spread, and only a few other players — maybe a dozen, at most — would directly impact a pregame line as much.
But is he worth 2.5 points? Furthermore, was Haliburton’s absence expected by sportsbooks before the Pacers announced it early Tuesday morning?
It's far from stunning. He missed Indiana’s most-recent game and has played in exactly one of its last seven. Logically, the possibility of Haliburton missing tonight’s game was at least partially built into the spread when the Nuggets opened as 3-point favorites on Monday evening.
Realizing that, this number jumping to +5.5 is an overreaction.
Siakam has played in a Pacers jersey in just two games now: A high-flying loss at Portland as eight-point favorites alongside Haliburton, and a seven-point loss, an ATS push, at Phoenix on Monday without his new running mate. Gauging Pascal Siakam’s impact on the Indiana lineup is still rather murky, but some like-for-like can be applied to him stepping in for Bruce Brown.
And as much fun as the former Nugget is, Siakam is better right now. The Pacers are, in theory, better now than they were before that trade last week. Before Siakam joined the lineup, Indiana had gone 4-1-1 ATS without Haliburton of late, including the game he was first injured and thus played only 13 minutes in a win against the Celtics.
There's plenty going on in Gainbridge Fieldhouse beyond Haliburton, particularly with Siakam making his home debut tonight. The betting public has overreacted to Haliburton’s prolonged absence, no matter how much deference he has genuinely earned.
My best bet: Pacers +5.5 (-114 at FanDuel)
Nuggets vs Pacers same-game parlay
Pacers +5
Nikola Jokic Under 28.5 points
Nikola Jokic Over 49.5 points + assists + rebounds
You read that correctly. Let’s bet on Nikola Jokic to impact this game heavily, as the two-time MVP is one to do, but not through scoring. That exact combination creates a hefty payout on this same-game parlay, as the sportsbook math deems it too narrow a needle to thread.
Yet, Jokic put up a 46 PRA against the Pacers less than two weeks ago while scoring only 25 points. Yes, that is short of the want here, but given the possible payout, the value begins to make some sense.
Indiana is vulnerable to play-making bigs. Domantas Sabonis scored 21 points, grabbed 11 rebounds and dished out 10 assists last week.
And stats get embellished against the Pacers, simply because of the pace they play at, even without Haliburton. They slow down a bit without him, but still rank No. 10 in the league in possessions per game since Haliburton first began missing action this month.
And for an intangible endorsement of Jokic, he may just want to one-up Joel Embiid’s Monday night without acknowledging he cares, a moment of Jokic’s competitive spirit showing through despite his public nonchalance. In that case, a resounding triple-double would be Jokic’s ideal response.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Best NBA bonuses
All Users30% boost for 3+ leg NBA SGP
e.g. +1,600 BOOSTS to +2,080! Claim Now
New Users
33% boost for one NBA bet
e.g. -114 BOOSTS to +116! Claim Now
Eligible USA locations only. Also, see our full list of best sportsbook promotions for 2024.
21+. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER
Nuggets vs Pacers spread and Over/Under analysis
This spread opened with the Nuggets favored by 3 on Monday evening before the Tuesday morning Haliburton news edged it to -3.5 and the public confirmation launched it to -5 and even -5.5 at some books.
Denver was favored by 10.5 at home against Indiana on Jan. 14. Grant a usual 3 points to home-court advantage — perhaps a bit more than is actually usual, but playing in Colorado warrants such a swing — and a spread of -4.5 tonight would have made the most sense. But then perhaps Siakam should knock it down a touch, and suddenly the first move to -3.5 makes some sense.
Remember, that game nine days ago was also without Haliburton.
So moving this up to +5.5 is clearly an overcorrection.
Naturally, the total also moved with the Haliburton news, peaking at 243.5 in Tuesday’s earliest hours before plummeting to 238.5 by late morning. That fall makes sense, given Indiana has cashed the Under in six of the eight games since Haliburton began battling this nuisance, including the Celtics game he played only 13 minutes in.
Nuggets vs Pacers betting trend to know
Denver is 8-15 ATS on the road this season, including 1-5 in its last six. Find more NBA betting trends for Nuggets vs. Pacers.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Covers may receive advertising commissions for visits to a sportsbook or betting site.
Nuggets vs Pacers game info
| Location: | Gainbridge Fieldhouse, Indianapolis, IN |
| Date: | Tuesday, January 23, 2024 |
| Tip-off: | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Altitude, Bally Sports Indiana |
Nuggets vs Pacers latest injuries
Stay updated with the latest picks, odds, and news! Tap the 
to add us to your favorites on Google News to never miss a story.
