Thursday’s NBA odds board has a trio of exciting Game 3 scenarios to bet on.
The Knicks and Pistons are locked in Motown, the Thunder try to put the Grizzlies on the ropes, and the Clippers ride the momentum back to L.A. where they host the Nuggets.
I go beyond the spreads and totals for these postseason tilts, breaking down the NBA player props markets. Here are my best NBA picks for April 24.
Best NBA player props today
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Gordon Over 2.5 assists (-110 at bet365) -
Beasley Over 14.5 points (-110 at bet365) -
Morant Over 6.5 assists (+115 at bet365)
NBA player props for April 24
Aaron Gordon Over 2.5 assists (-110 at bet365)
The Clippers' defense did a good job gumming up the works of the Nuggets’ playbook in Game 2.
Denver shot under 47% from the field and recorded 23 assists on its 37 made field goals. The Nuggets led the league in assists per game during the regular season (30.8), which boosted their advanced offensive rating to No. 4 in the NBA (118.9). In the postseason, that metric has dipped to 110.3.
Denver needs to pump up its playmaking, and power forward Aaron Gordon can be a conduit for that attack, despite picking up only one assist in each of the first two games of this series.
He’s averaged more than three assists over his last three seasons with the Nuggets, but it’s nothing for Gordon to dish out more dimes than that. Before the start of the playoffs, Gordon recorded three or more assists in eight of his final 10 games of the schedule, and player projections for Game 3 are very positive on his passing potential.
Forecasts range from 3.4 to 4.1 assists from Gordon, who showed five potential assists in Game 2. My number is at 3.6, which should have the Over 2.5 dimes priced closer to -220 rather than the -110 currently offered.
Malik Beasley Over 14.5 points (-110 at bet365)
Beyond the pressure of the playoffs, there’s plenty of extra motivation for Malik Beasley tonight.
The Pistons’ spark plug was hyping up the return of postseason basketball to the Motor City and what is expected to be a wild home crowd for Game 3, but he’s also playing with a chip on his shoulder.
Beasley was among the three finalists for the NBA’s Sixth Man of the Year Award but lost out to Boston’s super-sub Payton Pritchard. He responded with a simple “Boooooooo” on X this past Tuesday and gets a chance to prove those voters wrong tonight.
Beasley opened this quarterfinal series with New York in a big way, scoring 20 points on 7-for-16 shooting in 35 minutes of floor time. He cooled off in Game 2, going just 2 of 9 from the field (1-for-8 from 3-point range) and finishing with nine points.
Player projections for Game 3 come in closer to Beasley’s season scoring average of 16.3 points. While some models sit as low as 13.4, the majority of those forecasts are above his current scoring prop of 14.5 points O/U with a high of 18.6. My number for Beasley boils down to 16.2 points.
The prop markets opened as high as 15.5 O/U at some operators, and current patterns show a push to the Over 14.5 at sharper books. That projection should have the Over 14.5 juiced closer to -140 than the -110 available at bet365.
Ja Morant Over 6.5 assists (+115 at bet365)
Things look bleak for the Grizzlies as they head back to Memphis with two big lumps on their head, courtesy of the Thunder.
The Grizz lost the first two games of the series by a combined 70 points but did look sharper at times in Game 2. Turnovers and poor shooting have plagued Memphis in those games, while also burning Ja Morant’s playmaking abilities.
Morant’s potential assists have dropped from 12.5 in the regular season to 9.0 in this series, and he’s put up assist totals of four and six in those defeats. That forced books to open his Game 3 assist total at 5.5 (Over -158), and we’ve seen a market move to the Over, with the number now at 6.5 O/U.
With the series swinging to the FedExForum, the Grizzlies should see an uptick in efficiency (can’t get much worse) and wrangle in their turnover troubles. Memphis boasted an offensive rating of 118.6 at home this season (sixth highest) along with 29.4 assists per home stand (second most).
Interim head coach Tuomas Iisalo emphasized the importance of better execution within the offense, specifically the quality of screens, while also being able to adlib when OKC takes away those options — rather than forcing the ball into dangerous passes.
Morant, who averaged just shy of eight assists at home, is at his best in a free-flowing game, being able to attack the paint and create. If his shots aren’t dropping (he’s shooting 38% in the playoffs), he needs to find other ways to influence the offense.
Morant is projected to have at least seven dimes in Game 3, according to the multiple models I consulted. My projection shakes out to 7.5 assists. If there’s any validity in that number, the Over 6.5 should be set closer to -160.
I think the Over 6.5 +115 is well worth the wager, considering Morant is going to play major minutes in a do-or-die return home and have the ball in his hands on every possession.
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NBA odds today
Here are the full NBA odds for all of today’s matchups.
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