The Golden State Warriors came out to play. In a game that almost certainly secured their play-in berth over the Houston Rockets, the Warriors extended a recent stretch of strong play that makes them a suddenly daunting opponent. While the NBA odds are against the Warriors making a long run from the 10 seed, they remain dangerous on any given night.
The Dallas Mavericks know that only too well, having dropped a game to Golden State just a few days ago. They’re back for a rematch on Friday, April 5 with the Mavericks trying to win their way into homecourt advantage in the first round.
My NBA picks and predictions for Warriors vs. Mavericks detail why I expect Luka Doncic to have another productive evening against Golden State.
Warriors vs Mavericks predictions
My best bet: Luka Doncic Over 19.5 rebounds + assists (-130 at FanDuel)
Then these two teams played on Tuesday, the Golden State Warriors did about as good of a job tracking, harassing, and slowing down Luka Doncic as you’ll see.
The man still finished with 30 points, 12 rebounds, and 11 assists.
As the Dallas Mavericks head toward a rematch on Friday night, I’m expecting a similar level of production from Doncic on the rebounding and assist front.
Sometimes I would look to short a player’s assist prop when they’re playing on a back-to-back. Tired legs make for worse shooting by the recipient of the passes after all.
But in this case, Doncic is somewhat immunized from that drop off. Doncic creates plenty of open threes of course, but he’s also one of the most prolific and effective guys in the NBA when it comes to hitting the roll man right at the basket for a layup or a dunk.
Daniel Gafford, in turn, is one of the NBA’s best finishers, scoring 83% of his looks around the rim per Cleaning the Glass and shooting there almost exclusively.
The reason I think Luka will be able to reliably create those looks inside is down to the injury report.
On Tuesday Andrew Wiggins did a great job hanging with Luka on the perimeter, but he tweaked his ankle last night and couldn’t play in the fourth quarter against the Houston Rockets. When a player can’t return to action due to an ankle injury, it’s a surprise if they are then good to go the next day. Usually, the swelling and stiffening only worsen once they stop moving.
The options without Wiggins, or a limited version of him, are not as enticing. Jonathan Kuminga is already sidelined with a knee issue. Draymond Green can guard Luka, but then they have nobody to show help when Doncic turns the corner. Gary Payton II is strong enough, but simply doesn’t have the size, and Doncic overwhelmed him easily when they briefly matched up on Tuesday night.
Luka is going to be able to surveil the court against the Warriors’ smaller defenders, and more than likely they’ll have to blitz him regularly because they don’t have a great one-on-one option to guard him. That should mean plenty of assist chances.
Similarly, without an athletic wing to bang with Luka inside, he should have a lot of scoring chances closer to the basket, and thus opportunities to rebound his own misses or those of his teammates.
As both teams are on a back-to-back, this game could become sloppy at points. That typically means lower shooting percentages and more boards up for grabs. The Warriors' best players are downright ancient in NBA terms, and that makes quick turnarounds much harder on the body. Doncic should have the edge on 50/50 balls.
Luka has finished with 20 or more combined assists and rebounds in 11 of his last 16 games. His incredibly consistent floor game is why I love these Luka Doncic odds.
Warriors vs Mavericks same-game parlay
Luka Doncic 10+ rebounds
Luka Doncic Over 9.5 assists
Mavericks -5
Both the Warriors and Mavericks are surprisingly resilient in back-to-back situations this season, but I’m giving the edge to the Mavs.
While the Mavericks did just lose to Golden State, they are still 8-2 against the spread in their last 10 games, and a sterling 28-18 ATS when playing a game with equal rest to the opposition. The Warriors fare much worse.
But the main reason to like Dallas more here is Luka.
The Warriors need several players to have strong performances to play well, while the Mavs basically only need Doncic to do so. Golden State has gotten good performances from all three of Steph Curry, Klay Thompson, and Draymond Green recently, but all three have been up or down for long stretches of the season. There are just so many more potential points of failure in the mix for Golden State, any one of them sinks the Warriors' chances.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Warriors vs Mavericks odds and trends
Warriors vs Mavericks live odds
Warriors vs Mavericks opening odds
- Spread: Golden State +5.5 (-110) | Dallas -5.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Golden State +180 | Dallas -220
- Over/Under: Over 228.5 (-110) | Under 228.5 (-110)
Warriors vs Mavericks spread and Over/Under analysis
- Dallas opened as -5.5 point favorites over the Warriors for Friday, with that line now available anywhere from -4 to -5.5, depending on the sportsbook.
- Dallas is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games.
- Tonight’s total opened at 228.5, and that’s been pushed down to as low as 225.5 as of late Friday morning.
- The Under is 23-15 in Mavs home games and 22-16 in Warriors road games.
Warriors vs Mavericks trend
Mavericks are 8-2 ATS in their last 10. Find more NBA betting trends for Warriors vs. Mavericks.
Warriors vs Mavericks game info
| Location: | American Airlines Center, Dallas, TX |
| Date: | Friday, April 5, 2024 |
| Tip-off: | 8:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | WFAA / UniMás 49, NBC Sports Bay Area |
Not intended for use in MA.
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