The Midwest region of the March Madness bracket tips off on Thursday afternoon with a clash between the No. 14 seed Akron Zips and the No. 3 seed Creighton Bluejays.
This is just the second appearance for the Zips in the NCAA Tournament over the last decade while the Bluejays have been a constant presence during the Greg McDermott era and aim to go even further than last year when they advanced to the Elite Eight.
March Madness odds have the Bluejays as 12.5-point favorites with the O/U at 141.5. Here are my best free college basketball picks and predictions for Akron vs. Creighton on March 21.
Be sure to stay up to date with all our March Madness picks as the tournament progresses.
Akron vs Creighton best odds
Akron vs Creighton picks and predictions
The Akron Zips punched their ticket to the big dance by winning the MAC tournament but they were far from impressive. They had to mount a comeback to beat Ohio in the semifinals after scoring a pathetic 16 points in the first half. In the finals, they barely squeaked by a Kent State squad that finished eighth in the conference during the regular season. Wins like that might be thrilling for this senior-laden lineup but they can also lead to emotional letdown spots.
The Creighton Bluejays are not a team that you want to face with your fuel tank at less than 100%. Creighton has the ninth-best odds of winning the national title (+2,500 at FanDuel) and is an experienced squad that excels on both ends of the floor, ranking 12th in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency and 24th in adjusted defensive efficiency per KenPom.
The Zips had the second-best defensive rating in the MAC but they have holes that Creighton can exploit. While the Zips are 14th in the country in opponent three-point percentage (30%) they rank just 192nd in opponent two-point percentage (50.7%) and struggle against off-screen plays.
The Bluejays run off-screen plays at the seventh-highest rate with the sixth-best efficiency according to ShotQualityBets, and they shoot a sizzling 60.6% from inside the arc — easily the best number among Power Six programs.
On the other side of the court, Akron should be in even more trouble. This is a team that rarely attacks the rim and settles for far too many outside shots which isn't smart since they rank just 274th in the country in three-point percentage (32%).
The Zips' offense tends to run hot and cold, getting held to fewer than 70 points in 13 games this season. Expect that offense to run cold more times than not against a Creighton side that limits foes to 32.2% shooting from deep and 45.7% shooting from inside the arc.
The Bluejays were upset by Providence in the Big East quarterfinals last Thursday but now they are well-rested and should be highly motivated to win big here. Keep in mind that prior to that conference tournament loss to the Friars, the Bluejays had gone 7-1 SU and ATS in their previous eight games.
That stretch included a 14-point win against Marquette and a 19-point victory against UConn, the No. 1 ranked team in the country. If they are good enough to destroy high-quality squads like that they should be able to win with margin in an advantageous situational spot here.
My best bet: Creighton -12.5 (-110 at bet365)
Akron vs Creighton same-game parlay
Creighton -12.5
Akron First Half Total Under 31.5
Ryan Kalkbrenner Over 17.5 points
The Zips scored just 16 points in the first half against Ohio last week and they've gotten off to slow starts all season, ranking 221st in the country in first-half scoring (33.2 ppg). With their slow pace, Creighton's stingy defense, and the nerves that come with being a smaller school playing in the NCAA tournament, expect them to take a while to find their offensive groove.
The Zips have a small frontcourt with 6-foot-9, 225-pound Sammy Hunter or 6-foot-7, 205-pound Enrique Freeman usually their biggest players. With how well Akron defends the arc, the Bluejays will be best served attacking those undersized forwards in the paint with center Ryan Kalkbrenner.
The 7-1, 270-pound senior averages 17.1 ppg on 65 FG%, and he's rarely been substituted over the last month, logging 37.9 minutes per game in his last 10 contests.
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Akron vs Creighton spread and Over/Under analysis
The spread opened with Creighton at -12.5 with the O/U at 139.5. As of Tuesday night, the line has remained at -12.5 but the total has ticked up to 141.
The Bluejays are the No. 11 ranked team in the KenPom ratings and they are able to defend inside and out, while also scoring at every level. Creighton has three players averaging more than 17.0 ppg led by Baylor Scheierman (18.4 ppg, 9.0 rpg, 4.0 apg).
The Bluejays also do an excellent job of protecting the rim thanks to Kalkbrenner who averages 3.0 blocks per game and was just named Big East Defensive Player of the Year for the third-straight season.
This is just the second time that Akron has made the Big Dance in the last decade. However, the Zips two best players, Ali Ali (15.6 ppg, 4.1 rpg, 2.8 apg) and Enrique Freeman (18.6 ppg, 12.9 rpg) were also key starters on that 2022 team so they'll have their experience to lean on.
Akron vs Creighton betting trend to know
The Zips were able to string together a few victories and win the MAC Tournament but they closed the regular season going just 1-7 ATS in their final eight games. Find more college basketball betting trends for Akron vs. Creighton.
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Akron vs Creighton game info
| Location: | PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh, PA |
| Date: | Thursday, March 21, 2024 |
| Tip-off: | 1:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | TNT |
Akron vs Creighton key injuries
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