The Purdue Boilermakers might be known for first-round disasters — losing to 16-seed Fairleigh Dickinson in 2023 and 13-seed North Texas in 2021 will do that — but they should be in the clear this year. Some might argue the High Point Panthers have an efficient enough offense to make this first-round matchup interesting, but you should expect the favorite to pull away.
My High Point vs. Purdue predictions trust the better team led by a veteran backcourt. Let's get into my March Madness picks for Thursday, March 20.
Who will win High Point vs Purdue?
Excluding 2020 for obvious reasons, Matt Painter has now led Purdue to 10 straight NCAA Tournaments. He lost in the first round in four of those nine thus far, including as a favorite of at least 8.5 points in three of those four defeats.
So anyone arguing for High Point as a trendy underdog pick has a leg to stand on this week.
But Painter bucked that stressor last year. Purdue played UConn tougher than anybody in the 2024 NCAA Tournament, falling in the national championship game. The Boilermakers know what it takes to win in March, and this is a veteran team led by guards Braden Smith and Fletcher Loyer, buttressed by Trey Kaufman-Renn on the interior. Trust that offensive balance.
High Point vs Purdue prediction
My best bet: Purdue -8.5 (-110 at bet365)
The High Point Panthers have an excellent offense. Let’s give that credit. The Panthers rank No. 25 in offensive efficiency per Ken Pomeroy, competent in all regards. High Point does not turn over the ball much, it shoots well, and it crashes the offensive glass. The greatest offensive flaw you can find is that the Panthers do not move the ball particularly well, ranking in the bottom 40 of the country in assists rate.
That may matter here. When overmatched athletically, a ball movement offense can help level the playing field, er, court.
The Purdue Boilermakers defense is far from bad. It may not be as dominant as it was last year with Zach Edey in the paint, but it is still No. 63 by Pomeroy’s numbers, though No. 155 since Feb. 1 according to barttorvik.com.
Mostly, though, this bet is based on the Boilermakers’ offense, No. 7 in the country in Pomeroy’s efficiency rankings and No. 7 since Feb. 1 via Torvik. Most pertinently, Purdue shoots well, hitting 38.5% of its 3-pointers this season, No. 10 in the country. Smith and Loyer lead the way, making 38.4% and 46.4%, respectively.
That duo makes nearly 4.5 threes per game, and High Point will have no solve for them. At no point this season did the Panthers see a backcourt remotely comparable to a veteran one with this postseason success on its résumé.
High Point played exactly one team in this Tournament field, No. 16 seed American. The Panthers won by seven as 14-point home favorites.
Not to get too deep into the weeds here, but American’s offense ranks No. 252 in the country. Purdue will expose High Point in ways American absolutely could not.
A quality defense is needed to stay within single digits of the Boilermakers these days, and the Panthers lack that trait.
High Point vs Purdue same-game parlay (SGP)
Purdue -8.5
Over 153.5
Fletcher Loyer Over 1.5 made threes
Betting this Over 153.5 should be rather self-explanatory. Two efficient offenses that can both shoot well from deep should make for an entertaining game.
No one on the court shoots better than Fletcher Loyer. He hit 46.5% of his 3s in Big Ten play, knocking down 2.3 per conference game. In last year’s NCAA Tournament, he went 9-of-19, hitting at least a pair in three of the six games, and that was when he was a far less influential piece of the Boilermakers offense with Edey still around.
Loyer cleared this prop in nine of his last 11 games, including a pair of Purdue routs. The reality that this game might get one-sided exists because Loyer could start knocking down a bounty of triples.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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High Point vs Purdue odds
High Point vs Purdue live odds
High Point vs Purdue opening odds
- Spread: High Point +9 | Purdue -9
- Moneyline: High Point +350 | Purdue -450
- Over/Under: Over 154 | Under 154
Odds courtesy of bet365
High Point vs Purdue betting trend to know
Purdue went 4-0 against the spread this season when favored by three buckets, between -6.5 and -9. Find more college basketball betting trends for High Point vs. Purdue.
How to watch High Point vs Purdue
| Region | Midwest |
| Location | Amica Mutual Pavilion, Providence, RI |
| Date | Thursday, 3-20-2025 |
| Tip-off | 12:40 p.m. ET |
| TV | truTV |
High Point vs Purdue key injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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