The No. 12 McNeese State Cowboys take on the No. 5 Gonzaga Bulldogs in the first round of the NCAA Tournament tonight. Fans making their March Madness bracket selections are familiar with the tendency of No. 12 seeds to pull off first-round upsets so don't count out the Cowboys who have turned around their program in Will Wade's first season as head coach.
March Madness odds have the Zags as 6.5-point favorites with the O/U at 150 for this Midwest Region clash. Here are my best free college basketball picks and predictions for McNeese State vs. Gonzaga.
Check out our best No. 5 vs. No. 12 matchups to target, and be sure to read up on what our betting experts are saying on our March Madness picks page!
McNeese State vs Gonzaga best odds
McNeese State vs Gonzaga picks and predictions
While the McNeese State Cowboys went just 11-23 last year, they went 30-3 this season and easily won the Southland Conference championship. If dominating a weak conference doesn't impress you, keep in mind that they also won by double digits on the road against VCU, UAB, and Michigan.
The Gonzaga Bulldogs have a good team but they aren't the dominant juggernaut that they've been in past years. Not only did they fall to Saint Mary's in the WCC Tournament final but they lost to the Gaels and Santa Clara during the regular season while having a close scare at home versus San Francisco.
Sure the Zags still have one of the best offenses in the country since they play at a fast pace, limit turnovers, and are extremely efficient inside the arc (58.3 2PT%). However, this year's squad has poor spacing and doesn't shoot the ball well from deep while also drawing fouls at a low rate.
While there are a few flaws for Gonzaga on offense there are even bigger weaknesses on defense. The Bulldogs sit outside the Top 200 in opponent turnover rate (16.2%) while ranking 341st at allowing high-quality threes per ShotQualityBets.
They were fortunate that the poor outside shooters in the WCC couldn't take advantage of that but the McNeese State Cowboys drain a sizzling 39.4% of their attempts from beyond the arc — the seventh-best number in the country. The Cowboys also get to the free throw line at the 10th highest rate while ranking 22nd in turnover rate so expect them to find offensive success here.
The Cowboys are also tough on the other end of the floor, ranking 10th in the country in defensive efficiency while forcing turnovers at the sixth-highest rate (22.6%). While they likely won't be able to completely shut down Gonzaga's offense they should be able to disrupt it enough to cover this spread.
My best bet: McNeese State +6.5 (-110 at bet365)
McNeese State vs Gonzaga same-game parlay
McNeese State +6.5
Shahada Wells Alt Points 20+
Graham Ike Under 7.5 rebounds
McNeese State might be a smaller school but guard Shahada Wells previously played for TCU which shows just how talented he is. Wells was just named Southland Player of the Year and leads the team with 17.8 points, 4.8 assists, and 3.0 steals per game while shooting 40.2% from deep. The O/U for Wells' points is 17.5 but I'd rather take the milestone of 20+ points for Wells at +180.
Wells has scored at least 23 points in four of his last contests and in the Cowboys' biggest non-conference games he balled out, scoring 23 points versus VCU, 36 against UAB, and 30 versus Michigan. For the Cowboys to cover they'll need a big game from their best player against a vulnerable Gonzaga defense.
Ike's rebounds total has been inflated all season. Sure he pulls down 7.1 rebounds per game but he occasionally goes off for 10+ boards which puffs up his average. He's grabbed fewer than eight rebounds in 14 of his last 17 games and with McNeese State playing at a slower pace, he'll get fewer rebounding opportunities.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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McNeese State vs Gonzaga spread and Over/Under analysis
This spread opened with Gonzaga installed as a 6.5-point favorite with the Over/Under at 147.5. Money has poured in on the Over moving the total to 150. While early money came in on the Cowboys, slimming the line to -5.5, buyback on the Zags has pushed it back to the opening number.
What a job Will Wade has done in his first year coaching at McNeese State. Wade was never able to get LSU over the hump but he brought his brand of ball pressure and energy to a Cowboys team that has thrived. The Cowboys have lost just one game since the start of December, and they cruised to a 92-76 win against Nicholls State in the Southland Finals in their previous game last week.
The Zags are coming off a 69-60 loss to Saint Mary's in the WCC Finals. That snapped a nine-game winning streak for Gonzaga who had gone 6-3 ATS during that stretch. While the Zags often have a target on their back at this time of the year they might be a bit undervalued this season.
The Zags looked a step below other marquee programs during their non-conference schedule losing by double-digits to Purdue, UConn, and San Diego State while also falling to Washington. That said, they beat Kentucky 89-85 in Lexington last month which showed just how dangerous they can be when they get rolling.
McNeese State vs Gonzaga betting trend to know
The Cowboys are 7-2 ATS in non-conference games while the Zags have gone 5-8 ATS against non-conference foes. Find more college basketball betting trends for McNeese State vs. Gonzaga.
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McNeese State vs Gonzaga game info
| Location: | Delta Center, Salt Lake City, UT |
| Date: | Thursday, March 21, 2024 |
| Tip-off: | 7:25 p.m. ET |
| TV: | TBS |
McNeese State vs Gonzaga key injuries
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