NCAA Tournament bettors get a treat in the Round of 32 with the No. 1 North Carolina Tar Heels meeting the No. 9 Michigan State Spartans in the West Region of the March Madness bracket this evening.
The Tar Heels not only clash with a feisty team out of the Big Ten but also battle history, with the Green and White led by legendary coach Tom Izzo, who’s known for his mastery of the “madness” of March. March Madness odds are showing MSU plenty of respect, with UNC laying just 3.5 points.
The Spartans came out swinging in their opening-round win over Mississippi State, jumping out to a big lead and never taking their foot off the gas en route to a 69-51 win as 1.5-point favorites — despite being the lower seed.
North Carolina played around with No. 16 Wagner for a bit but dominated an undersized and undermanned Seahawks squad inside, collecting 48 of its total 90 points in the paint. The Tar Heels stepped up big for bettors laying the lumber at -25.5.
I dissect the spread and Over/Under for this ACC vs. Big Ten battle and give my best March Madness picks for Michigan State vs. North Carolina on March 23.
Michigan State vs North Carolina best odds
Michigan State vs North Carolina picks and predictions
The North Carolina Tar Heels were able to do whatever they wanted against Wagner, including playing the style of offense UNC likes to play.
The Tar Heels are at their best in transition, getting a stop on defense and pushing the pace with the basketball in a more free-flowing attack. They rank Top 75 in points per play in transition and find themselves in the open court at the 26th highest rate in the country.
The Michigan State Spartans are among the better defenses in the land at putting the brakes on transition-heavy teams and will force a more methodical pace, putting UNC into the halfcourt offense more often.
That means more touches for senior big man Armando Bacot in the blocks. He was able to bully the smaller Seahawks frontcourt for easy inside looks and putbacks on offensive rebounds in the Round of 64, finishing with 20 points but could have had a lot more if he wanted to.
Michigan State did get bodied against bigger foes in Big Ten play, watching the likes of Purdue’s Zach Edey, Minnesota’s Dawson Garcia, and Indiana’s Kel'el Ware have high-scoring showings. Offensive rebounds can also be an issue for MSU,
The Spartans caught a break against Mississippi State center Tolu Smith on Thursday, with early foul trouble keeping the Bulldogs’ big man on the sideline for much of the first half.
Bacot is playing some of his best — and consistent — basketball in the postseason. Before dropping 20 points on Thursday, he put forth scoring efforts of 19, 18, and 14 points (in 25 minutes of a blowout vs. FSU) in three ACC tournament games and is shooting 59% of his last four contests.
The 7-footer has a scoring prop of 13.5 points for this meeting with Michigan State on Saturday, which is pretty much where some player projections have him pegged. That said, given the pace and playsets UNC will be forced into, Bacot has a higher ceiling on the scoresheet.
He’s put up 14+ points in four straight games and eight of his last 13 appearances. The Over 13.5 points for Bacot is priced as high as -125 at many sportsbooks, but bet365 is offering that option and a more reasonable -115.
My best bet: Armando Bacot Over 13.5 points (-115 at bet365)
Michigan State vs North Carolina same-game parlay
Armando Bacot Over 13.5 points
Tyson Walker Over 1.5 made threes
North Carolina moneyline
Bacot will see the basketball a lot in a slowed-down tempo and will also be a force on the offensive glass for easy putbacks.
Walker knocked down 3 of 6 from distance against Miss State and projections have him making at least two triples against UNC.
Game models call for a very close contest, but all have North Carolina surviving and advancing to the Sweet 16.
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Michigan State vs North Carolina spread and Over/Under analysis
Following UNC’s one-sided win over Wagner, books opened the Tar Heels between -2.5 and -3.5 with some sharper online books coming in with a shorter spread. The industry consensus as of Friday afternoon is North Carolina -3.5 with some operators up to -4.
The Tar Heels offense looked much better than its defense in the tournament opener, with UNC getting whatever it wanted down low while also connecting on 9 of 18 shots from beyond the arc.
However, the North Carolina defense wasn’t as sharp — especially considering this team sits among the defensive elite. Wagner, which is a terrible offensive team, went 7-for-18 from deep.
The 3-pointer was also the weapon of choice for Michigan State, which knocked down 10 of 23 attempts from beyond the arc in the squash of Mississippi State on Thursday. The Spartans shot 50% from the floor while checking the Bulldogs to just 52 points on 37% shooting and forcing 14 turnovers.
Saturday’s Over/Under total opened as low as 138.5 and has jumped to as high as 140.5 in the first 24 hours of action.
North Carolina is 17-17-1 Over/Under on the season but has played Over the total in four of its last five games overall. The Heels are also 8-2 O/U on neutral courts this season.
Michigan State boasts a 14-20 O/U mark overall and has gone Under in four of its last five games and seven of its last nine. Sparty is 2-4 O/U on neutral site, yet is playing in front of a pro-UNC crowd in Charlotte on Saturday.
Michigan State vs North Carolina betting trend to know
North Carolina has won outright on the moneyline in 22 of its last 28 games (+4.95 units). Find more college basketball betting trends for Michigan State vs. North Carolina.
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Michigan State vs North Carolina game info
| Location: | Spectrum Center, Charlotte, NC |
| Date: | Saturday, March 23, 2024 |
| Tip-off: | 5:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | CBS |
Michigan State vs North Carolina key injuries
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