Nevada vs Dayton Predictions, Picks, and Odds: Flyers Figure Out Way to Advance in NCAA Tournament

The West Region of the March Madness bracket pits the No. 7 Dayton Flyers against the No. 10 Nevada Wolf Pack in Round 1 on Thursday.

Given the March Madness odds for this Round of 64 matchup, hoops bettors are in for a good one. Nevada is a slight favorite in Salt Lake City, where it will own an edge in altitude against its Ohio opponent.

The Wolf Pack were one of the hottest teams in the country before stumbling in their opening game of the Mountain West Conference tournament, snapping a seven-game streak in which Nevada went 6-1 against the spread in the college basketball picks.

Dayton suffered a similar fate in its conference tournament, getting bounced in the quarterfinals of the Atlantic 10 tournament. The Flyers were inconsistent in closing out the A-10 schedule, going 3-2 SU and 2-3 ATS in the final five games before losing outright as 7-point chalk in their postseason opener.

I dissect the spread and Over/Under total for this West Region run-in and give my best March Madness picks and predictions for Nevada vs. Dayton on Thursday, March 21.

Nevada vs Dayton best odds

Nevada vs Dayton picks and predictions

I’m conscious of the edge the Nevada Wolf Pack could have in terms of venue, given this Round of 64 game is being played at the Delta Center. Reno is a tick higher in altitude than Salt Lake City (4,400 feet vs. 4,327), with the thin air a concern for the Dayton Flyers in the second half.

However, in terms of how these programs operate, Dayton could really complicate Nevada’s plans.

The Wolf Pack have a dynamic duo in the backcourt in Jarod Lucas and Kenan Blackshear, but this offense is dependent on getting inside, drawing contact, and scoring from the free-throw line.

On the season, Nevada forced foes into an average of 21.4 personal fouls (second-most) and flipped those infractions into 25 free-throw attempts (eighth-most), knocking down just over 18 of those freebies and generating almost 24% of its total offensive production from the foul line.

Dayton plays one of the most disciplined defenses in the country, getting whistled for just 13.4 personal fouls per contest — fifth-fewest. The Flyers send opponents to the foul line fewer than 13 times an outing, which means Nevada could be missing a good chunk of its scoring on Thursday.

Referees tend to swallow their whistle a little more in NCAA tournament games, letting some aggressive and physical play slide. Overall, fouls are down over the past three college basketball seasons, and the 33.8 average fouls per game this regular season are tied as the second-lowest in NCAA history.

The Flyers put opponents through the wringer on offence. Dayton is extremely efficient with the basketball and draws possessions deep into the shot clock with a methodical pace that makes foes play defense more than they’d like.

That attack is anchored by the inside presence of 6-foot-10 forward DaRon Holmes II, who averages more than 20 points on 54.5% shooting. When opponents collapse to double down on Holmes, the ball kicks out to a perimeter group ranked No. 3 in 3-point shooting.

The Wolf Pack struggle to protect the paint and allow foes to finish at the rim and in the post-up at an average of 1.17 and 0.82 points per play, which ranks 262nd and 240th, respectively, according to ShotQualityBets.

Game models for this No. 7 versus No. 10 contest confer with the short spread, but not all agree with which team should be the favorite. Out of the four projections I sourced, three gave the nod to Dayton in a 1-point game.

Given matchup snags for Nevada and those forecasts leaning toward the underdog, I’m shopping around for the best outright price on Dayton in the Round of 64. Some books have the Flyers sitting as pricey as -105 on Tuesday morning.

My best bet: Dayton moneyline (+106 at Pinnacle)

Nevada vs Dayton same-game parlay

Dayton moneyline

Koby Brea Over 9.5 points

Kenan Blackshear Under 14.5 points

64% boost available

+495 +812 at DraftKings

Projections give Dayton the thumbs-up in a game with a slim spread. The Flyers' defense and ability to knock down triples will be the difference.

Koby Brea will benefit from Nevada collapsing on Holmes. He’s projected for three 3-pointers and can get hot quickly.

Blackshear is reliant on scoring points from the foul line but won’t be able to sucker the Flyers into fouls at his normal rate. He’s not a good enough shooter to make up for that missing piece.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Nevada vs Dayton spread and Over/Under analysis

In the wake of Selection Sunday, oddsmakers opened the No. 10 seed as the favorite, with Nevada laying -1.5 versus No. 7 Dayton. 

That spread slimmed a bit in the early hours of action, dropping to -1. According to Covers Consensus, 58% of picks are siding with the Wolf Pack as short favorites.

Nevada’s hot finish to MWC play made it a darling among college basketball bettors, finishing the season on a 10-3 ATS streak before faceplanting in the conference tournament quarterfinals versus Colorado State. The Wolf Pack are 21-10 ATS on the season, including 11-5 ATS away from Reno (road/neutral games).

The Flyers are 16-14 ATS overall but failed to meet oddsmakers expectations in the back half of conference play. Dayton covered the spread only five times in the past 13 games, including a bad loss to Duquesne in its A-10 tournament opener.

Thursday’s Over/Under total hit the board as tall as 138.5 and has come down to 136.5 across the industry. Covers Consensus shows 56% of picks on the Over.

Nevada went 14-17 Over/Under on the season but the offense picked up the pace during that strong finish, topping the total in six straight games heading into this NCAA tournament matchup.

Dayton owned an 18-11-1 O/U mark on the year, including six straight Over results to close A-10 play before an Under in the tournament quarterfinal loss. The Flyers are 18th in offensive efficiency and drag out possessions, forcing opponents to play defense for extended periods.

Nevada vs Dayton betting trend to know

Dayton has won outright on the moneyline in 22 of its last 28 games (+12.90 units). Find more college basketball betting trends for Nevada vs. Dayton.

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