Oakland vs Kentucky Predictions, Picks, and Odds: Reeves Steps Up in March Madness Opener

The Kentucky Wildcats begins a high-pressured March quest in the first round against the Oakland Grizzlies tonight.

The Wildcats have one of the most talented backcourts in America with multiple potential NBA draft lottery picks. However, they'll come into March Madness off a surprising and disappointing first-round SEC Tournament exit to Mississippi State.

Oakland has been a fun team to watch this year, with Jack Gohlke being the best 3-point shooter in the tournament. The 14-seeded Grizzlies punched their ticket here by winning the Horizon League Tournament, capped by a championship game win over Milwaukee. 

What's the best bet in this one? Find out as I look at the March Madness odds and give my best March Madness picks for Oakland vs. Kentucky.

Oakland vs Kentucky best odds

Oakland vs Kentucky picks and predictions

The should-have-been All-American Antonio Reeves has lived with it for over 365 days now. That's when the Kentucky Wildcats were eliminated from the NCAA tournament by Kansas State, and the senior had one of the worst games of his season. He scored just five points and went 1-for-10 from three, which seems unthinkable today after shooting over 43% from deep this season.

The narratives in this spot are widely abound. The revenge factor is prominent for Reeves. He's bounced back so well this season after poor shooting games, and not only do we have the element of him looking to avenge that bad tournament last season, but we also have him looking to bounce back from a poor SEC tournament performance.

In the loss to Texas A&M, Reeves scored just 14 points, his lowest scoring output in 2024. His prior low was nine points which was way back in December against North Carolina. How did he respond? With 30 points and four threes against arch-rival Louisville.

I also like the element of a young Kentucky team leaning on its veteran in its first NCAA Tournament game. In the first three games of the year, Reeves combined for an eye-popping 49 total shots. I'm not sure he'll see quite that volume here, but it aligns with the thinking he should get many opportunities as a veteran player for a group of many playing in their first tournament game. 

There's also a matter of the matchup. The Oakland Golden Grizzlies are a terrible spot-up defense, allowing .98 points per possession on such sets and 38% shooting. Much of that has come against a schedule far from the quality of what Kentucky will throw at it, too.

In addition to that, its zone has allowed some teams to get very hot from three. The Grizzlies allow nearly 40% shooting from deep out of conference, something that I'd expect to show up here. 

There's a lot to like about Reeves in this spot. In an added element, Reeves may be playing with even more of a chip on his shoulder as he was recently named an honorable mention on the All-American list when most presumed he would be an All-American. He'll have a good amount of open looks from outside, and more often than not, you'd bet on Reeves to knock those down.

My best bet: Antonio Reeves Over 2.5 made 3s (+140 at bet365)

Oakland vs Kentucky same-game parlay

Antonio Reeves Over 2.5 made 3s

Jack Gohike Over 1.5 assists

+425 at bet365

As I mentioned at the onset, Gohike will enter this game as statistically the best 3-point shooter in the entire tournament. For all of Kentucky's defensive issues, it has been alright against 3-point shooters this season.

The Wildcats will be aware that one of the only ways for Oakland to win this game involves Gohike getting hot from deep. The extra emphasis on running him off the 3-point line should open up some passing lanes and allow him to eclipse this minimal number — something he's done in two of his last four games.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Oakland vs Kentucky spread and Over/Under analysis

This is a reasonably high-variance game, so I want no part of the pregame 13.5-point spread. 

Kentucky will be asked to make open shots, and you'd imagine that one of the best shooting teams in the field would do it. However, there is the matter of the Wildcats needing to take better quality shots from time to time as they rank below the national average in that metric, according to ShotQualityBets. 

Often, this doesn't matter because it's littered with NBA talents with NBA shotmaking ability, which may hold here. This analysis is pretty simple. If Kentucky is making open 3-pointers, it wins and could win big. If not, things get interesting because Oakland has a reasonably good path to executing in the halfcourt. If I played anything pregame, a few alternate spreads would highlight that variance, but I'll likely stay away.

I lean to the Over here, but my best bet is isolating the Wildcats' team total of Over 88.5 points. Kentucky is the country's highest-scoring team. As I've mentioned, it has an excellent path to putting up points in bunches in this matchup, and I struggle to understand how Oakland will have much success containing the athleticism or team speed of UK.

Oakland vs Kentucky betting trend to know

Kentucky has hit the game total Over in 24 of their last 33 games (+14.05 Units / 39% ROI). Find more college basketball betting trends for Oakland vs. Kentucky.

Play at Pinnacle: Offering 25 + years of betting experience

Make your March Madness wagers at Pinnacle, which offers Canadians unbeatable value with the most competitive odds in the industry and high limits — come find out why Pinnacle is home to better odds and better payouts!

Sign Up Now 

Oakland vs Kentucky game info

Oakland vs Kentucky key injuries

Stay updated with the latest picks, odds, and news! Tap the to add us to your favorites on Google News to never miss a story.

Pages related to this topic