Oregon vs South Carolina Predictions, Picks, and Odds: Ducks Hold Momentum Heading Into NCAA Tournament

The No. 11 seed Oregon Ducks face the No. 6 seed South Carolina Gamecocks in the first round of the March Madness bracket on Thursday.

South Carolina is having one of its best seasons in program history, while Oregon booked a spot in the Big Dance after a surprise victory in the Pac-12 Tournament.

Upsets between 11-6 seeds are common in March Madness picks, and this wouldn't even be surprising since this matchup is close to a pick'em. March Madness odds currently have the Gamecocks as 1-point favorites, with the Over/Under listed at 133 for this Midwest Region clash. 

Here are my free college basketball picks for Oregon vs. South Carolina on March 21.

Oregon vs South Carolina best odds

Oregon vs South Carolina picks and predictions

The South Carolina Gamecocks begin March Madness fresh off an ugly 31-point loss to Auburn in the SEC quarterfinals. However, that shouldn't overshadow a fantastic regular season that saw them tied for second in the SEC with a 13-5 record while picking up wins against Tennessee and Kentucky.

The Oregon Ducks posted an underwhelming 12-8 record in conference play and were expected to miss the NCAA Tournament for the third straight season. Instead, they ended up winning the Pac-12 Tournament as a +1,100 dark horse to secure a spot in the madness.

On the surface, it seems like backing the Gamecocks makes the most sense. They had a better record in a slightly tougher conference and defended at a higher level, ranking 54th in the country in opponent effective field goal percentage (48%), while the Ducks are just 245th (51.5 eFG%). 

That said, the Ducks caught on fire down the stretch thanks to the massive strides they made on the defensive end of the floor. Not only do they come into March Madness riding a four-game winning streak, but they held their foes to just 64.5 points per game on 41.3% shooting over that span. That included a pair of neutral site games against Top 25 offensive teams in Arizona and Colorado.

From an analytics perspective, South Carolina has a slight edge with KenPom and Bart Torvik, while sportsbooks project a 1-point win for the Gamecocks. However, Oregon's season-long metrics are a bit skewed because their best player N'Faly Dante (16.2 ppg) missed 14 games earlier in the season.

In addition, freshman Jackson Shelstad needed time to find his groove at point guard, but his consistency has improved over the last month. During a four-game stretch in December, Shelstad turned the ball over 12 times. However, the Oregon guard has just a pair of turnovers in his last four contests despite facing better defenses. 

With the Ducks entering this tourney with more momentum and having better shot-makers, I'll take them on the moneyline.

My best bet: Oregon moneyline (+100 at FanDuel)

Oregon vs South Carolina same-game parlay

Oregon moneyline

Under 133.5

Collin Murray-Boyles Over 12.5 points

+837 at FanDuel

The Gamecocks are 354th in the country in adjusted tempo and they average 19.5 seconds per possession — which ranks 347th. While the Ducks have been unable to slow down up-tempo opponents (averaging just 16.8 seconds per defensive possession), they take their time when they have the ball, sitting 240th with 18.0 seconds per possession. 

With both teams rarely applying defensive pressure on ball-handlers, expect these offenses to take their time in the halfcourt. Combine that with the fact that neither offense shoots well from deep, and Oregon's defensive improvement and the Under seems likely.  

Collin Murray-Boyles began the season as a reserve but the freshman forward has emerged as one of South Carolina's best players down the stretch. He's coming off one of the worst performances of his career, going just 1-9 from the field against Auburn, but he should bounce back here.

Keep in mind that Murray-Boyles averaged 16.7 ppg on 70.3% shooting in his previous 11 contests before that loss to Auburn. Taking the Over on his points, along with the Under on the game total and Oregon moneyline, creates a significant multiplier for this SGP.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Oregon vs South Carolina spread and Over/Under analysis

This line opened with the Gamecocks installed as slim 1.5-point faves with the Over/Under at 133. Both the spread and total have only seen moderate movement, with the line down to -1 at most books and the total ticking down to 132.5.

It's been a fantastic season for the Gamecocks, who made the NCAA Tournament for just the second time in the last 20 years. They've gone 23-10 against the spread this season, which is the sixth-best mark in the country. That said, oddsmakers seem to have adjusted, and South Carolina is now a modest 6-5 ATS over its last 11 contests. 

The Gamecocks don't shoot the ball well but they limit turnovers and work hard on the offensive glass. They also like to slow games down to a crawl so they can use their physicality and tough defense to grind out wins.

While the Gamecocks have been one of the best ATS teams in the country, the Ducks have struggled to cover. Although they won and covered in their last two games, Oregon went 6-5 straight up and 1-10 ATS in its previous 11 contests.

Oregon vs South Carolina betting trend to know

Oregon has cashed the moneyline in 24 of its last 34 games (+16.80 Units / 14% ROI). Find more college basketball betting trends for Oregon vs. South Carolina.

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