Saint Peter's vs Tennessee Predictions, Picks, and Odds: Offenses Suppressed in NCAA Tournament Tip-Off

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The No. 15 seed Saint Peter's Peacocks are set to take on the No. 2 seed Tennessee Volunteers in the first round of the March Madness bracket tonight. The Volunteers boast the sixth-best March Madness odds and aim to make up for last year when they came up short in the Sweet 16.

The Peacocks will try to recapture the magic of their 2022 Cinderella run when they entered as the No. 15 seed and advanced to the Elite Eight. College basketball odds have the Vols as 21.5-point favorites, with the Over/Under listed at 130 for this evening's showdown in the Midwest Region. 

Here are my best college basketball picks for Saint Peter's vs. Tennessee on Thursday, March 21.

Saint Peter's vs Tennessee best odds

Saint Peter's vs Tennessee picks and predictions

The Saint Peter's Peacocks won the MAAC championship despite averaging just 60.0 points per game during the conference tournament. They have a pathetic offense that ranks just 359th in the country in 2-point percentage (42.4%) and 324th in turnover rate (19%). Those numbers are especially terrible when you consider that the Peacocks had one of the easiest regular season schedules in the country. 

Expect them to get shut down by the Tennessee Volunteers, who are ninth in the country in opponent 2-point percentage (44.3%) and 60th in opponent TO rate (18.6%) despite facing a slew of top-rated offenses in the SEC. The one thing that the Peacocks do well on offense is rebound but they'll have a much tougher time succeeding in that area against Tennessee, who is much bigger than the undersized frontcourts it sees in the MAAC. 

While the Peacocks have a pathetic offense, they do play tough on the other end of the floor. Saint Peter's is eighth in the country in defensive efficiency and ranks 22nd in opponent-effective field goal percentage (46.6%). Bashir Mason's club makes it tough for opponents to run up the score by doing a good job of pressuring ball-handlers and defending on the perimeter.

The Vols have vastly improved their scoring ability from last year, but they're still more consistent on defense than offense. When Dalton Knecht's shots aren't dropping, the supporting cast struggles to pick up the slack.

Even if Tennessee is efficient offensively, points could still be suppressed due to the sluggish pace of the Peacocks, who are 338th in adjusted tempo. If the Vols gain a big early lead, they could also choose to rest Knecht and point guard Zakai Zeigler, which could result in their offense looking disjointed for stretches.

My best bet: Under 130 (-109 at Pinnacle)

Saint Peter's vs Tennessee same-game parlay

Under 130

Tennessee alternate spread -16

Corey Washington Over 14.5 points

+550 at DraftKings

Although the Peacocks won their conference tournament, they didn't look impressive during the regular season. They finished the campaign going just 7-8 in their last 15 games against the mediocre competition in the MAAC.

The Volunteers were dominant despite facing one of the toughest schedules in the country and they had no problems blowing out subpar opponents, with 10 victories coming by 20+ points this season. Because of the slow pace of the Peacocks, I'm reluctant to follow the line movement to -21.5, but I'll buy some points and take the Vols on an alternate spread of -16.

It seems counter-intuitive to take the Under and an alt spread on the Vols while also backing the Over on points for Saint Peter's leading scorer Corey Washington. However, it also creates a nice multiplier for this SGP and makes sense when you realize that the Peacocks don't have anyone else who can create their own shot.

Books have already adjusted for Tennessee's stingy defense, with the total on Washington's points sitting at just 14.5 despite the forward averaging 19.3 points per game since the start of January. Even in games where Saint Peter's has struggled to score, Washington has often finished with a decent amount of points.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Saint Peter's vs Tennessee spread and Over/Under analysis

The spread opened with the Vols installed as massive 19.5-point faves and the Over/Under listed at 129.5. Early money came in on Tennessee, shifting their spread to -21.5. 

If you remember Saint Peter's miracle run two years ago, it might sense to take them with the points against a Tennessee program that seems to choke every year under head coach Rick Barnes. 

That said, this Peacocks squad has a completely different lineup and a new coach. They finished a modest fifth in the MAAC during the regular season and are just 305th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency according to KenPom.

The Vols collapsed in the SEC Tournament semifinals, losing by 17 points as 9.5-point favorites, but they were the cream of the crop in the SEC during the regular season. They finished atop the conference standings with a 14-4 record and went 11-7 against the spread. Tennessee is 29th in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency while ranking third in adjusted defensive efficiency. 

Saint Peter's vs Tennessee betting trend to know

The Under is 7-1 in Tennessee's last eight games. Find more college basketball betting trends for Saint Peter's vs. Tennessee.

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