The No. 13 seed Samford Bulldogs face the No. 4 seed Kansas Jayhawks tonight in the first round of March Madness odds.
Many fans were already circling Samford as a potential upset play when filling out their March Madness bracket. They're likely feeling even better about their college basketball picks after Kansas coach Bill Self announced that leading-scorer Kevin McCullar Jr. would miss the tournament.
Despite the absence of their star swingman, college basketball odds still have the Jayhawks as 7-point favorites for this Midwest Region showdown. Here are my best free March Madness picks for Samford vs. Kansas on March 21.
Samford vs Kansas best odds
Samford vs Kansas picks and predictions
The Kansas Jayhawks were already looking like a trendy team to fade in this spot, so the news that Kevin McCullar Jr. is officially out for the season makes me like the dogs even more. That said, there is a bet I like even more than the +7 on the Samford Bulldogs, and it factors in both the absence of McCullar and Samford's soft interior defense.
The Bulldogs have a highly-efficient offense but they've been vulnerable on defense, ranking 116th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency per KenPom. They also play at a blazing-fast pace, so even without McCullar, Kansas should be able to put up some points here.
Expect a lot of those points to come from center Hunter Dickinson, who will likely see his field goal attempts rise without McCullar in the lineup. Dickinson dislocated his shoulder in the regular season finale against Houston, but he's been practicing this week and all indications are that he'll be 100% by tip-off.
Dickinson averages 18.0 points and 10.8 rebounds per game while shooting 55% from the floor. The 7-foot-2, 260-pound center has been one of the top offensive big men in the country since his sophomore season at Michigan, and he'll now face an undersized Samford frontcourt that doesn't defend well down low.
The Bulldogs are 257th in the country at defending the rim per ShotQualityBets while ranking just 343rd at defending post-up plays. Dickinson is a monster in the paint, and the Jayhawks run post-up plays at the 66th-highest frequency in the country while ranking 19th in efficiency.
The Bulldogs were clobbered by Purdue in their season-opener and they were fortunate that Zach Edey was benched after just 20 minutes since he went 5-6 from the field and got to the free-throw line at will. The best bigs they faced in the SoCon were UNC's Mikael Brown-Jones and Mercer's Jalyn McCreary, who both had success inside.
Dickinson is far bigger and more skilled than those guys and he should carry the Jayhawks offense in Round 1.
My best bet: Hunter Dickinson Over 19.5 points (-115 at bet365)
Samford vs Kansas same-game parlay
Hunter Dickinson Over 19.5 points
Samford +7.5
Kansas team total Under 80.5
With the Jayhawks diminished by the loss of McCullar, they'll have a tough time covering the spread against an explosive Samford offense. The Bulldogs are 20th in the country in 2-point percentage (50.5%), and also shoot lights out from beyond the arc, ranking eighth in three-point percentage (39.3%).
They should have success from the outside against a Jayhawks team that ranks just 345th in the country at allowing high-quality threes. With the Bulldogs playing at a fast pace with crisp ball movement and multiple scoring options, even a defensively solid Kansas team will have a tough time slowing them down.
The Jayhawks' biggest issue for much of the season was scoring depth, and with McCullar in street clothes, that problem will be magnified. Keep in mind that they scored just 52 points without McCullar and Dickinson in their last game and finished with 46 points in the game before that when McCullar was hindered by his knee injury and had zero points in 15 minutes.
McCullar also missed several games in February, and the Kansas offense sputtered in his absence despite some strong performances from Dickinson. With Dickinson hitting the 20-point plateau, there's a strong chance that the Jayhawks will go Under their team total.
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Samford vs Kansas spread and Over/Under analysis
This line opened with Kansas at -8.5, with the Over/Under listed at 149.5. With Samford playing at one of the fastest tempos in the country and capable of shooting lights out from anywhere on the floor, money came in on the Over, moving the total to 153. The Bulldogs have also been a popular ATS bet, which has slimmed the line to -7. With McCullar officially ruled out, we could see even more money come in on them.
Samford dominated the Southern Conference and cruised to an easy conference title last week. The Bulldogs were clobbered by Purdue in their season opener and also dropped their following game against VCU, but have lost just three other times since.
Even before the injury to McCullar, Kansas wasn't looking like the national title contender they were expected to be. While the Jayhawks looked terrific during their non-conference slate, picking up wins against Kentucky, Tennessee, and UConn, they were inconsistent in conference play.
The Jayhawks never won more than two games in a row against Big-12 opponents and they struggled away from home, going just 2-7 straight up.
Samford vs Kansas betting trend to know
Samford has covered the spread in 17 of its last 26 games (+7.15 Units / 25% ROI). Find more college basketball betting trends for Samford vs. Kansas.
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Samford vs Kansas game info
| Location: | Delta Center, Salt Lake City, UT |
| Date: | Thursday, March 21, 2024 |
| Tip-off: | 9:55 p.m. ET |
| TV: | TNT |
Samford vs Kansas key injuries
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