The No. 7 Texas Longhorns face the No. 2 Tennessee Volunteers in the second round of the NCAA Tournament tonight. March Madness odds have the Volunteers as 6.5-point favorites, with the Over/Under listed at 147 for this Midwest Region clash.
That isn't surprising when you consider that Texas is a long shot in college basketball picks, with a futures price of +9,000. Although the Longhorns are underdogs, they advanced to the Elite Eight with a similar squad last year. Meanwhile, the Vols have a bad habit of getting bounced earlier than expected from the March Madness bracket.
Here are my best free March Madness picks for Texas vs. Tennessee on March 23.
Texas vs Tennessee best odds
Texas vs Tennessee picks and predictions
I'm leaning towards an experienced Texas Longhorns side that made the Elite Eight last year over a Tennessee Volunteers squad that has a history of underachieving in March.
The Longhorns are coming off a double-digit win in the first round over Colorado State 56-44, despite going just 1-14 from beyond the arc. However, on defense, Texas held the Rams to just 29% shooting from the field and forced 18 turnovers.
The fact that the Longhorns were able to grind out a win when their outside shots weren't falling makes me like them more in this spot. The Vols have an elite defense and guard extremely well on the perimeter, but even if the Longhorns can't light it up from outside, they have the mettle to stick around.
While the Vols also boast very impressive defensive analytics around the rim, most of their regular season SEC opponents preferred to shoot from the perimeter or get buckets in transition, as opposed to attacking inside in half-court sets.
On the other, hand the Longhorns are second in the country at attacking the rim per ShotQualityBets. Texas is also 55th in the country in effective field goal percentage (53.3%), which is better than Tennessee's 51.7 eFG%, despite the Longhorns playing in the defensively tougher Big 12.
Tennessee coach Rick Barnes coached Texas for 17 years before leaving in 2015, and his long-time assistant Rodney Terry is now running the show. That familiarity should turn this into a rock fight, and with Barnes going just 4-15 against the spread in the NCAA Tournament dating back to 2009, I'll take the points with the dogs.
My best bet: Texas +6.5 (-110 at bet365)
Texas vs Tennessee same-game parlay
Texas +6.5
Dylan Disu Over 14.5 points
Dalton Knecht Over 2.5 threes
Dylan Disu scored just 12 points against CSU but he took 18 field goal attempts, including six from beyond the arc. He averaged 16.1 points per game on 50.2 FG% during the regular season, and was the Longhorns' best player during the tourney last year before a foot injury knocked him out of the lineup.
One advantage that the Longhorns have in this game is that they have better athletes in their frontcourt and play with more energy upfront. They'll need a strong performance from Disu if they want to pull off the upset here.
One factor that makes me wary of backing the Longhorns is their poor 3-point defense, with Texas allowing foes to shoot 34.5% from long range. While the Rams went ice-cold from deep yesterday, they'll have a tougher time containing Vols guard Dalton Knecht.
Knecht was named SEC Player of the Year and led the Vols with 21.2 ppg. He has drained more than 2.5 treys in six of his last eight games and tends to be more ball-dominant in bigger games.
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Texas vs Tennessee spread and Over/Under analysis
This line hit the board with Tennessee at -6.5 and the O/U at 147. Although the spread has remained unchanged, the total ticked down to 146 by Friday night. These teams faced off last year, with the Vols winning 81-71 as 5.5-point home favorites. While they are even better on paper this season, they won't have a homecourt advantage this time.
It's been an up-and-down season for the Longhorns, who entered with high expectations. Despite three returning starters and the addition of Max Abmas, the Longhorns went .500 in Big 12 play and showed that they were a step below Houston and Iowa State.
The Vols were the best team in the SEC during the regular season but collapsed in the conference tournament semifinals when they lost by 17 points as 9.5-point favorites.
Texas vs Tennessee betting trend to know
The Over is 8-2 in the Longhorns' last 10 games. Find more college basketball betting trends for Texas vs. Tennessee.
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Texas vs Tennessee game info
| Location: | Spectrum Center, Charlotte, NC |
| Date: | Saturday, March 23, 2024 |
| Tip-off: | 8:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | CBS |
Texas vs Tennessee key injuries
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