Texas vs Tennessee Predictions, Picks, and Odds: Horns Hold Value in Saturday's March Madness

With the Vols' tendency of coming up small in March, the Longhorns could surprise the public in Saturday's second-round showdown. Rohit Ponnaiya breaks it all down in our Texas vs. Tennessee betting picks.

Rohit Ponnaiya - Betting Analyst at Covers.com
Rohit Ponnaiya • Betting Analyst
Mar 23, 2024 • 16:11 ET • 4 min read
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This article contains predictions for an old game!

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Dylan Disu Texas Longhorns NCAAB
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The No. 7 Texas Longhorns face the No. 2 Tennessee Volunteers in the second round of the NCAA Tournament tonight. March Madness odds have the Volunteers as 6.5-point favorites, with the Over/Under listed at 147 for this Midwest Region clash.

That isn't surprising when you consider that Texas is a long shot in college basketball picks, with a futures price of +9,000. Although the Longhorns are underdogs, they advanced to the Elite Eight with a similar squad last year. Meanwhile, the Vols have a bad habit of getting bounced earlier than expected from the March Madness bracket.

Here are my best free March Madness picks for Texas vs. Tennessee on March 23.

Texas vs Tennessee best odds

Texas vs Tennessee picks and predictions

I'm leaning towards an experienced Texas Longhorns side that made the Elite Eight last year over a Tennessee Volunteers squad that has a history of underachieving in March. 

The Longhorns are coming off a double-digit win in the first round over Colorado State 56-44, despite going just 1-14 from beyond the arc. However, on defense, Texas held the Rams to just 29% shooting from the field and forced 18 turnovers.

The fact that the Longhorns were able to grind out a win when their outside shots weren't falling makes me like them more in this spot. The Vols have an elite defense and guard extremely well on the perimeter, but even if the Longhorns can't light it up from outside, they have the mettle to stick around. 

While the Vols also boast very impressive defensive analytics around the rim, most of their regular season SEC opponents preferred to shoot from the perimeter or get buckets in transition, as opposed to attacking inside in half-court sets.

On the other, hand the Longhorns are second in the country at attacking the rim per ShotQualityBets. Texas is also 55th in the country in effective field goal percentage (53.3%), which is better than Tennessee's 51.7 eFG%, despite the Longhorns playing in the defensively tougher Big 12. 

Tennessee coach Rick Barnes coached Texas for 17 years before leaving in 2015, and his long-time assistant Rodney Terry is now running the show. That familiarity should turn this into a rock fight, and with Barnes going just 4-15 against the spread in the NCAA Tournament dating back to 2009, I'll take the points with the dogs.

My best bet: Texas +6.5 (-110 at bet365)

Texas vs Tennessee same-game parlay

Texas +6.5

Dylan Disu Over 14.5 points

Dalton Knecht Over 2.5 threes

Dylan Disu scored just 12 points against CSU but he took 18 field goal attempts, including six from beyond the arc. He averaged 16.1 points per game on 50.2 FG% during the regular season, and was the Longhorns' best player during the tourney last year before a foot injury knocked him out of the lineup.

One advantage that the Longhorns have in this game is that they have better athletes in their frontcourt and play with more energy upfront. They'll need a strong performance from Disu if they want to pull off the upset here.

One factor that makes me wary of backing the Longhorns is their poor 3-point defense, with Texas allowing foes to shoot 34.5% from long range. While the Rams went ice-cold from deep yesterday, they'll have a tougher time containing Vols guard Dalton Knecht.

Knecht was named SEC Player of the Year and led the Vols with 21.2 ppg. He has drained more than 2.5 treys in six of his last eight games and tends to be more ball-dominant in bigger games. 

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

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Texas vs Tennessee spread and Over/Under analysis

This line hit the board with Tennessee at -6.5 and the O/U at 147. Although the spread has remained unchanged, the total ticked down to 146 by Friday night. These teams faced off last year, with the Vols winning 81-71 as 5.5-point home favorites. While they are even better on paper this season, they won't have a homecourt advantage this time. 

It's been an up-and-down season for the Longhorns, who entered with high expectations. Despite three returning starters and the addition of Max Abmas, the Longhorns went .500 in Big 12 play and showed that they were a step below Houston and Iowa State.

The Vols were the best team in the SEC during the regular season but collapsed in the conference tournament semifinals when they lost by 17 points as 9.5-point favorites. 

Texas vs Tennessee betting trend to know

The Over is 8-2 in the Longhorns' last 10 games. Find more college basketball betting trends for Texas vs. Tennessee.

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Texas vs Tennessee game info

Location: Spectrum Center, Charlotte, NC
Date: Saturday, March 23, 2024
Tip-off: 8:00 p.m. ET
TV: CBS

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Betting Analyst

With a background playing soccer, rugby, and boxing, combined with a journalism degree, it's little surprise that Rohit gravitated towards the world of sports betting. He specializes in betting on UFC and college basketball, two sports where the eyeball test can tell you a lot more about matchups than any analytics. Rohit has years of experience handicapping NFL and NBA games as well as niche betting markets such as politics and Oscar odds. He's also the resident CFL expert and formerly hosted "The Chez and Ro Show" with former CFL star Davis Sanchez.

You can catch Rohit breaking down every UFC event with Joe Osborne on "P4P Picks" on the Covers YouTube channel and he also has regular appearances on "Before You Bet" with Joe. In addition, he's a regular guest on "By The Book" on the Monumental Sports Network and makes guest appearances on VSIN's "The Handle" and CBS Sports.

Rohit primarily makes his bets at bet365, which offers a wide variety of prop markets, but also has accounts at several others so he can shop around for the best prices. For Rohit, bankroll management is key. He believes you should never bet what you can't afford to lose and maximize those few betting opportunities where books misprice a line.

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