The No. 12 UAB Blazers needed to win three games in three days in the American Athletic Conference Tournament in order to reach the March Madness bracket, a run sparked in some part by upsets elsewhere in the AAC bracket.
Remembering that provides some doubt about the Blazers’ March Madness odds.
It can be easily argued that the No. 5 San Diego State Aztecs lucked out by drawing UAB to open the tournament in Spokane. Fan support should be on their side in this one, but more importantly, the Aztecs should have an edge on the court in our UAB vs. San Diego State predictions and picks.
The selection committee overlooked the degree of that on-court edge in setting up this matchup, a mistake that yields value in our free March Madness picks as we preview this opening round game happening today.
UAB vs San Diego State best odds
UAB vs San Diego State picks and predictions
As advanced metrics have become more commonplace, the NCAA Tournament selection committee has generally done better with seedings. Sure, there are still questionable omissions each season, but most of the 68 teams in the actual bracket are slotted correctly.
UAB was not.
The Blazers rank behind three 13 seeds in barttorvik.com’s adjusted efficiency rankings and behind all four 13 seeds in Ken Pomeroy’s. One cannot even argue that UAB surged of late and earned this seeding. Yes, it is on a five-game winning streak, but two of those wins were against Temple and another was against Wichita State, teams that are far from quality no matter what metric you want to use.
And let’s not even get into how going to Temple and winning by 28 points in publicly suspicious circumstances artificially inflated the Blazers’ advanced metrics. If that had been a one-score game, as was initially expected before who-knows-what-happened, then UAB would be behind even more lower seeds.
But focusing on the last month as a whole, the Blazers rank No. 91 in barttorvik.com’s numbers since Feb. 15, behind 15-seed South Dakota State (No. 87), the College of Charleston (No. 56), and all three other 12-seeds.
UAB should have been a 13 seed, not a 12, a difference that matters to the teams facing South Dakota State (No. 2 Iowa State) and Charleston (No. 4 Alabama) while benefiting San Diego State. The Aztecs could not have landed a more overmatched foe as a No. 5 seed, a ranking that was largely deserved even if No. 3 Kentucky and No. 4 Kansas are both behind the Aztecs in KenPom's numbers.
This mistake by the selection committee alone is reason to believe in San Diego State as a 7-point favorite. Projections suggest this spread should be closer to -9.
The Aztecs boast the best player on the court in forward Jaedon LeDee and will dictate the pace of the game by relying on their suffocating defense to force UAB to chuck from deep.
The Blazers won't want to, taking only 32% of their conference shots from beyond the arc, and making only 34.1% of those attempts. Meanwhile, SDSU is coming off forcing conference foes to heave from long range on 41.2% of their shots, nearly four percentage points higher than the national average.
UAB should not be in this game, and the style of it could turn this into a rout.
My best bet: San Diego State -7 (-108 at BetRivers)
UAB vs San Diego State same-game parlay
San Diego State -7
UAB team total Under 66.5
Yaxel Lendeborg Under 13.5 points
With every advantage in this game, the Aztecs should slow it down to a crawl. Less possessions will also mean fewer trips to the free-throw line for Blazers forward Yaxel Lendeborg.
While the 6-foot-9 junior usually overmatches opposing frontcourts, that won't be much of a worry for San Diego State with LeDee around. Furthermore, the Aztecs may prevent most entries to Lendeborg, limiting his field goal attempts entirely, given he took exactly 36 threes this season.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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UAB vs San Diego State spread and Over/Under analysis
When the selection committee announced this matchup, the spread opened with San Diego State favored by 7.5, a number that fell to -6.5 on Sunday night. That was non-sensical, as shown by the spread jumping back to -7 no later than Monday, with some books grabbing -7.5.
The best thought process for why it has not climbed higher is an expectation that the Aztecs could slow this game down into the low 60s, at which point, winning by three possessions will become harder. That would be a bit extreme for San Diego State, a team generally too efficient to live at that low altitude.
The total opened as low as 134.5 and was eventually bet up to 139.5 by Wednesday. While the Aztecs play slow, they remain highly efficient at scoring.
UAB vs San Diego State betting trend to know
San Diego State went 5-2 against the spread this season when favored by three buckets, spreads between -6.5 and -9. Find more college basketball betting trends for UAB vs. San Diego State.
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UAB vs San Diego State game info
| Location: | Spokane Veterans Memorial Arena, Spokane, WA |
| Date: | Friday, March 22, 2024 |
| Tip-off: | 1:45 p.m. ET |
| TV: | TNT |
UAB vs San Diego State key injuries
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