The No. 6 seeded BYU Cougars take on the Alabama Crimson Tide in the Sweet 16 tonight.
The Tide are an offensive juggernaut, but my BYU vs. Alabama predictions expect their vulnerable defense to get lit up by the red-hot Cougars.
Here are my best free March Madness picks for this East Region showdown, with tipoff at 7:09 p.m. ET on Thursday, March 27 from the Prudential Center in New Jersey.
Who will win BYU vs Alabama?
Going into the NCAA Tournament, I believed that Alabama was the most vulnerable No. 2 seed due to their lax defense. While St. John's was the first 2-seed eliminated, the Tide have been far from impressive.
They barely beat lowly Robert Morris in the Round of 64 and were fortunate to face a Saint Mary's squad in the second round that couldn't make open shots. The Cougars are one of the best shooting teams in the country and they have the firepower to make this game a back-and-forth shootout.
Sure, Alabama has more size in the frontcourt and has better athletes but BYU has more length in the backcourt and boasts the more physical lineup. In what should be a close game, don't be surprised if the Cougars pull off the upset.
BYU vs Alabama prediction
My best bet: BYU team total Over 85.5 (-115 at bet365)
The Alabama Crimson Tide are committed to their run-and-gun philosophy, convinced that they can outscore anybody. However, this is the sort of matchup that could trip them up. The BYU Cougars are ninth in the country in adjusted offense and are more than capable of going bucket for bucket.
Don't forget that Alabama's shaky defense led to almost getting upset in the first round when No. 15 seed Robert Morris dropped 81 points. While Saint Mary's scored just 66 points against them in the last round that had more to do with the Gaels pathetic shooting than good defense from Bama.
The Tide gave up a ton of open looks and were fortunate that the Gaels shot just 12-32 at the rim and went 1-8 on open threes. The Cougars are sixth in the country in 2-point percentage (58.4%) and 28th in 3-point percentage (37.3%) and will make Alabama pay if they get those openings.
The Tide are near the bottom of the country in opponent turnover rate and won't be able to exploit BYU's issues with ball security. Their drop coverage also leaves outside shooters open which is why they rank 340th at allowing high-quality threes per ShotQualityBets.
They were fortunate that most of the teams in the SEC don't shoot well from the arc and the ones that do (Auburn, Florida, Kentucky, and Mizzou) all had offensive success against them. The Cougars space the floor with four players that can shoot from the perimeter which will be tough for Alabama to defend.
With Alabama 346th in the country in ppg allowed (81.0) and the Cougars dropping at least 85 points in seven of their last 10 games, take the Over on their team total.
BYU vs Alabama same-game parlay (SGP)
BYU team total Over 85.5
Alabama alt-team total Over 85.5
Aden Holloway 2+ threes
Richie Saunders 5+ rebounds
The Tide play at the quickest tempo in the country and the Cougars have a tendency to get sucked into fast-paced games. While I'm betting on the Cougars to have offensive success, I don't expect them to shut down an Alabama attack that leads the country with 90.8 ppg.
After all, the Tide have scored 90+ points in nine of their last 14 games. The games where they finished with fewer than 90 points during that span came against teams in the Top 20 in adjusted defense while BYU checks in at No. 71.
Both teams take a ton of shots from beyond the arc and missed threes often end up in long rebounds that go to guards and wings. Richie Saunders is extremely active around the basket and grabbed seven rebounds in his last game while logging 5+ boards in four of his last six.
Holloway has gone just 2-5 from deep so far in the tournament. However, the sophomore sharpshooter had drilled at least a pair of threes in 13 of his last 16 regular season contests. He should knock down at least a pair of treys against a BYU squad that is 248th in 3-point defense (35%).
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BYU vs Alabama odds
BYU vs Alabama live odds
BYU vs Alabama opening odds
- Spread: BYU +4.5 (-110)| Alabama -4.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: BYU +165 | Alabama -200
- Over/Under: Over 174.5 (-110) | Under 174.5 (-110)
Odds courtesy of bet365
BYU vs Alabama betting trend to know
BYU has hit the Team Total Over in 15 of its last 18 games (+11.45 Units / 55% ROI). Find more college basketball betting trends for BYU vs. Alabama.
How to watch BYU vs Alabama
| Region | East |
| Location | Prudential Center, Newark, NJ |
| Date | Thursday, 3-27-2025 |
| Tip-off | 7:09 p.m. ET |
| TV | CBS |
BYU vs Alabama key injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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