Wagner vs North Carolina Predictions, Picks, and Odds: Tar Heels End Seahawks’ March Madness Run

The thrill of winning one of the NCAA Tournament’s Play-In games is short-lived for the No. 16 Wagner Seahawks: Waiting for them in the West Region Round of 64 in the March Madness bracket is the top-seeded North Carolina Tar Heels.

The Seahawks now go from Dayton to Charlotte for this opening-round matchup today, with the March Madness odds backing up a dump truck of points and setting UNC as a 24-point favorite in its own backyard.

The Tar Heels stumbled in the ACC tournament final, getting upset by rival NC State, but still edged Tennessee for the last remaining No. 1 seed in the Big Dance. They face a Wagner team with a taste for upsets after winning the NEC tournament as a No. 6 seed and beating Howard as a 3-point pup in the First Four.

I break down the spread and Over/Under total for this No. 1 vs. No. 16 matchup and give my best March Madness picks for Wagner vs. North Carolina.

Wagner vs North Carolina best odds

Wagner vs North Carolina picks and predictions

Anyone who’s had a finger on the pulse of college hoops the past few months knows the North Carolina Tar Heels have an elite defense. The Tar Heels enter the NCAA Tournament sitting sixth in KenPom’s “holy of holy” defensive efficiency metric while allowing just over 70 points per contest.

The Wagner Seahawks, however, may be an unknown for many basketball bettors. The Seahawks snuck their way into the bracket thanks to a stunning run in the NEC tournament and set up this date with UNC by beating Howard in the Play-In Round on Tuesday.

Wagner is also rooted in defense, finishing NEC play with the fewest points allowed. A lot of that has to do with the Seahawks’ pace on offense, which sits only above Virginia in terms of tempo. So, you know where we’re going here.

Offensively, Wagner is among the worst attacks in the country and ranks as the second-worst team in offensive efficiency among qualified NCAA teams.

It doesn’t shoot well — from anywhere — and is reliant on flipping turnovers into buckets and scoring putbacks on the offensive glass. Those won’t be there against a UNC sitting 57th in turnovers and boasting the second-highest defensive rebound rate in the land.

The Seahawks have obviously held some Under value for total bettors, staying below their closing total in 19 of their 30 games. College basketball odds have adjusted those numbers significantly, with Wagner facing an Over/Under of more than 130 points only 10 times all year and posting a 1-9 O/U count against those higher totals. 

What’s more, Wagner’s roster is running dangerously thin considering the schedule it’s been keeping. Head coach Donald Copeland has seven healthy bodies and runs only that deep in his rotation, with the starting five logging massive minutes since the postseason tipped.

The Eagles have gone from Shaolin to Ohio to Charlotte in four days, now facing a deep UNC squad with a heavy home-court advantage inside Spectrum Center. North Carolina will also be itching to get back on the court after that whiff in the ACC final while also looking ahead to Round 2, which means conserving some energy in the second half.

The Heels faced some similar-paced opponents in ACC play, with the likes of Virginia, Notre Dame, and Pittsburgh (twice) ranking at the bottom of the tempo metrics in the conference. UNC stayed Under in all four of those games against those “slow motion” opponents, giving up scores of 65, 57, 51, and 44 points to offenses that are much stronger than the broken-wing Seahawks.

Game models for this No. 1 vs. No. 16 game range from an output of 128 points to 130.5, which provides plenty of headroom with the game total sitting as high as 133.5 points on Wednesday morning.

My best bet: Under 133.5 (-110 at bet365)

Wagner vs North Carolina same-game parlay

Under 133.5

North Carolina moneyline

Race to 20 — North Carolina

+105 at bet365

You have one of the best defenses in the country taking on one of the worst offenses, running only seven players deep on a hectic travel sked. Ruff Stuff.

The Tar Heels cruise but this mountain of chalk is scary if they start slowing down in the second half. Moneyline for safety.

I don’t know if Wagner will have 20 points by halftime. North Carolina will win this always-fun prop and strike 20 first.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Wagner vs North Carolina spread and Over/Under analysis

Shortly after a thrilling First Four finish between Wagner and Howard, oddsmakers opened this Round of 64 clash with North Carolina as 24-point neutral-court chalk — a game played in Charlotte, NC.

The Tar Heels backed into the No. 1 seed in the West Region after losing in the ACC tournament final to NC State. UNC is 19-15 ATS on the season but has been a bad bet over the past two months, going just 6-8-1 ATS in its last 15 outings. The Heels are 7-7 ATS as double-digit faves and 2-2 ATS as 20-plus chalk.

The Seahawks ride a four-game ATS streak into the NCAA Tournament, edging Howard as 3-point underdogs in the Play-In and shocking their way to the NEC tournament title as underdogs in all three postseason games. That run has improved Wagner to 15-15 ATS overall.

Thursday’s Over/Under total opened at 133.5 points shortly after the Play-In wrapped up.

North Carolina is one of the best defensive teams in the country, which has helped sway a 16-17-1 O/U mark. The Heels are 7-2 O/U on neutral courts this season, including a 2-1 O/U mark in the ACC tournament last week.

Wagner is also a program anchored in defense, boasting an 11-19 O/U mark overall. The Seahawks’ four-game postseason run has produced a 1-3 O/U mark with Tuesday’s First Four game topping the closing total of 128 points.

Wagner vs North Carolina betting trend to know

Wagner has gone Under the total in 19 of its last 29 games (+8.00 units). Find more college basketball betting trends for Wagner vs. North Carolina.

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Wagner vs North Carolina game info

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