Western Kentucky vs Marquette Predictions, Picks, and Odds: Hilltoppers Keep March Madness Opener Close Early

Marquette and Western Kentucky meet in a first-round game of the NCAA Tournament with all the fireworks on the floor.

Marquette spent much of the season's last month without its offensive hub and the best player on the floor, Tyler Kolek. Even still, the Eagles made it to the Big East Tournament Championship game. Defending National Champion Connecticut was too much for it there, but it put up an admirable battle before the Huskies pulled away late.

Western Kentucky has been impressive under first-year head coach Steve Lutz. The Hilltoppers got here by winning three games in three days to capture the Conference USA crown over UTEP.

Which team will find the goods to move in in the March Madness bracket?

Find out when we look at the March Madness odds and give it Western Kentucky vs. Marquette predictions and picks for today's matchup

Be sure to check out our free March Madness picks before locking in any other selections. 

Western Kentucky vs Marquette best odds

Western Kentucky vs Marquette picks and predictions

This game is fascinating on so many levels.

Shot volume has been a critical indicator of national champions over the last five years and something I've paid great attention to over these last few seasons. Shot volume is a relatively simple formula calculation based on 100 possessions without free throws. I'll save you the weeds behind it, but a double-digit underdog rarely has an advantage over its opponent, but the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers do. 

It's even more rare that an underdog would want to speed the game up as much as possible, but Western Kentucky doesn't have a choice. The Tops cannot win in a grind-it-out type game here. They have to stay true to their absolutely bananas, chaotic style of play. It's one that's earned them the spot of the best transition field goal percentage in the entire field, and abandoning that now would be a fool's errand, even if Marquette may not be the best team in the field to employ this style again.

So what do we do with this? For me, it's to bet on Marquette struggling early with the unpredictability of the Western system and grabbing them to cover in the first half as my best bet.

First off, there's the Tyler Kolek factor. By all accounts, the senior guard is good to go and will start the game. But could that be a net negative early? Marquette has now played five games without its star. How quickly does Kolek get into the flow of things? Is there rust? These are all things that are impossible to answer. But they add to the unpredictability of what to expect from Marquette, and it's hard to think that's bad.

Western can throw a few wrinkles at Marquette early in the halfcourt to avoid being overly reliant on scoring in transition. One of those places is in the post. Marquette has not been good there defensively this season, ranking near the bottom of the Big East in points per possession allowed on post-up sets. The Hilltoppers will see this as an opportunity between Babacar Faye and Rodney Howard. Those two players rank in the top 70% of scoring on post-up sets. There's a reasonable path for Western to get some regular, early, consistent offense here to stay close. 

I'm a big fan of this bet. 

Marquette has been on this seed line for a few years now with this identical core of players and thus knows what to expect from these teams. Western's style all but eliminates that familiarity factor. This isn't an underdog that will try to attack you off the dribble; it will run through the post. This isn't an underdog that will play as slowly as possible; they are going to pedal to the pedal. Give me Western to keep this close early and throw Marquette off its game with its chaotic style.

My best bet: Western Kentucky +8.5 first half (-108 at FanDuel)

Western Kentucky vs Marquette same-game parlay

Western Kentucky +8.5 — first half

Marquette moneyline

+114 at FanDuel

For my same-game parlay, I'm using a similar line of thinking as I did with my best bet.

Marquette will settle in the second half, adjust, and win the game. Some of Western's spot-up defensive issues will start to show themselves, and Marquttee has too much of a talent advantage to lose a game that will be played so often in transition.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Western Kentucky vs Marquette spread and Over/Under analysis

Marquette will win this game, just like I've mentioned above.

I see little value in the pregame line, given that I expect Western Kentucky to make this much closer early on. My approach will be to hit our best bet and then double dip with Marquette's live spread. The Hilltoppers have been in quite a cover run lately, and they'll enter this game with covers in seven of their last ten games. Marquette has been hot in its own right, too, as the Eagles have covered three of their previous four games.

I like the Over and played it for a unit. My projections make this total 162 instead of the 158.5 number that oddsmakers have given us.

Oddly enough, I've spent so much time on the paths Western Kentucky has to score that I've barely touched on Marquette. It all centers around Tyler Kolek. With him on the floor, Marquette is a Top 10 efficiency offense, and they'll get the style of game they want: Up tempo and go, go go.

Western Kentucky vs Marquette betting trend to know

Marquette has hit the Moneyline in 13 of their last 17 games (+9.20 Units / 14% ROI). Find more college basketball betting trends for Western Kentucky vs. Marquette.

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