Mississippi vs Tennessee Odds, Picks and Predictions: Ride the Vols as Double-Digit Chalk

The Mississippi Rebels will try to keep their undefeated season alive against their toughest opponent yet this year, as they visit the Tennessee Volunteers on Saturday night.

No. 22 Mississippi (13-0) is off to an unexpectedly good start, though much of that success has come against weak competition. That may be why they are severe underdogs in the college basketball odds tonight, as they face No. 5 Tennessee (10-3) in their SEC opener.

As good as the Rebels have been so far, few expect them to have a shot tonight against the Volunteers. The question is whether they have a shot at covering the spread.

We’ll take a closer look at the matchup in our free college basketball picks and predictions for Mississippi vs. Tennessee on January 6.

Mississippi vs Tennessee best odds

Mississippi vs Tennessee picks and predictions

It would be a mistake to completely dismiss Mississippi's 13-game winning streak. However, everyone is quick to note that this success has come against one of the weakest schedules any team in the country has faced so far.

If you’re searching for a signature win on the Rebels’ schedule, it’s likely their 70-68 road win over the Central Florida Knights last month. Even that victory is far from the kind of performance you’d expect out of a Top 25 squad. 

To Mississippi’s credit, they’ve been accomplishing this with solid efforts on both sides of the court. The Rebels are particularly good on the perimeter, where Matthew Murrell (17.0 ppg) and Allen Flanigan (16.7 ppg) lead a smaller lineup that has had little trouble scoring efficiently from beyond the arc.

Tennessee represents a massive step up in competition for Mississippi, though. Outside of three losses to other powerhouse programs (Purdue, Kansas, and North Carolina), the Vols have ripped through their schedule, finding little resistance from most opponents.

In particular, the Volunteers have been stifling on defense. Tennessee is allowing just 64.3 points per game, despite playing an elite non-conference schedule. It runs the same kind of small-ball lineup that should match up well with Mississippi. The Vols also present a bit more interior size, as 6-foot-11 Jonas Aidoo patrols the paint and is averaging 1.5 blocks per game on the season.

Mississippi is walking into a hornet’s nest tonight. It’s not just that Tennessee is the far better team, but that it is also much more battle-tested. The Volunteers have played the best teams in the nation and will now have the comfort of opening their SEC schedule at home against a wildly overachieving Rebels squad.

The double-digit spread may be shocking to some, but if anything, it understates just how far apart these two teams are. Oddsmakers and the public are giving Mississippi some credit for its record, but in reality, the Rebels haven’t shown anything that suggests they’ll be in this game tonight.

I’m taking the Volunteers and laying the points.

My best bet: Tennessee -11.5 (-110 at bet365)

Mississippi vs Tennessee same-game parlay

Tennessee -11.5

Under 138

Josiah-Jordan James Over 10.5 points

+575 at DraftKings

I like Tennessee to win tonight in a blowout, but that doesn’t mean I expect a whole lot of points to be scored overall.

These are two teams that both play at notably slow paces and when you put them together, that should mean a lot of half-court offense and deliberate play. With that in mind, I’m throwing in a bet on the Under at 138 points.

To round out this SGP, let’s take Josiah-Jordan James to hit the Over on his scoring prop at 10.5 points. While the Volunteers boast an abundance of talent on offense, James has scored at least 12 points in four of his last seven games and has only had one truly quiet contest in that stretch. He’s the best bet on Tennessee to hit a fairly modest scoring total.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Mississippi vs Tennessee spread and Over/Under analysis

Tennessee opened tonight’s game as a 12.5-point favorite. The consensus spread has come down to Tennessee -11.5, with the Volunteers often posted with some added juice on that number. This means you can find Mississippi at odds as short as -102 if you shop around.

Despite being undefeated, Mississippi has put up just a 7-6 mark against the spread so far this year. Tennessee has also disappointed bettors, going just 5-7-1 ATS on the season.

If this game was taking place in Mississippi, you might be able to justify the relatively light spread even with the fundamental gap in talent and big-game experience on these two squads. As it is, this is a home game for the Volunteers and one that they should win with ease. The Rebels have had a great start but will come crashing back down to Earth in SEC play. 

The total for tonight’s game opened at 143.5 points. That number has come down precipitously, and the consensus Over/Under now sits closer to 137.5 points, with some books offering a flat 138.

Both teams have played close to the total this year, with a slight trend towards the Over. The Over holds a 7-6 edge when Mississippi plays this season, and has also gone 7-5-1 when Tennessee plays.

There’s a good reason for the total to have plummeted, as these are both slow-paced teams that want to control the ball. Tennessee, in particular, has been successful at this, playing Under 137.5 points in three of their last four games.

These teams historically play to low scores as well, going Under 135 total points in each of their last five matchups. I’m expecting another low-scoring affair tonight.

Mississippi vs Tennessee betting trend to know

The Under is 7-0 in the last seven meetings between these two programs. Find more college basketball betting trends for Mississippi vs. Tennessee.

Mississippi vs Tennessee game info

Mississippi vs Tennessee key injuries

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