Suddenly, the conference tiebreakers are an afterthought. In three of the Power Four conferences, the paths to the conference championship games should be rather clear.
In the Big Ten, the winner of Indiana at Ohio State on Nov. 23 should face Oregon. In the Big 12, the winner of Kansas State at Iowa State in the regular-season finale should meet BYU in Dallas; never before has Farmageddon meant so much. And in the ACC, SMU and Miami will be favored in every remaining game as the last two unbeatens in conference play.
However, the SEC could become intriguing. If — and it is a hefty if — LSU beats Alabama this week, and if Texas goes on the road and beats Texas A&M in the regular-season finale, there's a distinct chance 11-1 Georgia gets left out of the SEC title game.
Welcome to life with bloated conferences and unbalanced schedules.
College football Week 10 things you should not overreact to
Do not overreact to that SEC thought. There are still hurdles to clear, but Year 1 of the SEC’s scattering divisions may yield absolute and joyful chaos.
In that scenario — Georgia, Texas, and LSU all finishing 7-1 in SEC play — the tiebreakers would reach down to the total winning percentage of each team’s conference opponents.
As things are trending right now, the Bulldogs’ schedule would be dragged down by facing all three of Mississippi State, Kentucky, and Auburn, combining for two SEC wins to date.
The first hurdle to clear for this delightful hilarity is LSU beating Alabama this weekend.
Brian Kelly has yet to lose at night in Baton Rouge, now most of the way through his third season with the Tigers. Most notably, he upset Alabama on a Saturday night in Death Valley in his first season. That's only so applicable to this moment, but Tiger Stadium’s reputation will show up in the gambling line.
Douglas' advice: Both Alabama and LSU were idle this week. This spread should open with the Tide favored by a field goal, give or take the hook. Just know, this is one moment where home-field advantage will be considered in the initial line movement. If you want to back the Tigers on the path to SEC drama, act fast.
Do overreact to Penn State’s loss to Ohio State, but only in that now the Nittany Lions are more dangerous than ever.
Penn State knows better than anyone it has not beaten a quality opponent this year. The Nittany Lions know how much they did or did not stress in preparations up until this past week.
And they know they blew an opportunity against Ohio State this weekend.
Now at 7-1, Penn State should be favored by double digits in every remaining game, only a trip to Minnesota possibly within two touchdowns.
At 11-1, the Nittany Lions should still make the 12-team College Football Playoff, even if that record lacks a signature win, but Penn State needs to remove all doubt moving forward.
Douglas' advice: Start treating the Nittany Lions as if they will throw everything at every opponent, including the kitchen sink. Any spread within -17 against Washington this weekend should be embraced. James Franklin has no choice but to charge forward, and with offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki scheming up gameplans, Penn State will not look any version of conservative any time soon.
Do overreact to Army quarterback Bryson Daily’s absence.
The Black Knights surprised everyone by announcing their star quarterback would miss this weekend’s rivalry game against Air Force, a complete unknown until Saturday mid-morning. That shock moved the line to -18 before kickoff from spending the late week at -21.5 or -22.
And that absence mattered, Army winning only 20-3 without Daily. Most notably, its passing explosiveness disappeared, with backup quarterback Dewayne Coleman going 5-for-8 for 48 yards.
Daily’s stats may seem modest, but in the last five games, he had averaged 110 passing yards on 4.6-for-7.4 attempts per game. In other words, his completions were going for an average of 23.9 yards.
Army did not specify what injury or illness held out Daily, only that he's expected back this season.
Douglas' advice: Expect Daily to miss this week at North Texas. Army should be favored by double digits, and the Mean Green rush defense is woeful. The Knights should not need Daily to notch a win, and then he will have two more full weeks to get healthy before facing Notre Dame. The spread will be properly adjusted for Daily’s absence, but there may be value in attacking an immediate Under on Sunday, anything north of 60 standing out.
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College football Week 10 things you definitely should react to
Also overreact to Florida quarterback DJ Lagway’s apparent hamstring injury on Saturday.
Undoubtedly, Gators head coach Billy Napier will be cagey with Lagway’s status all week. It is all too common in college football nowadays and a frustration for us bettors.
At best, Lagway will be gimpy at Texas. More likely, Florida has to turn to walk-on Aidan Warner. That’s going to go badly.
Douglas' advice: Again, the quarterback worry will be baked into the spread; there's more likely to be value in the Under given Florida may not score at all. Napier will not be oblivious — he may well implement a slower offensive approach, simply in hopes of reducing the magnitude of the blowout. Napier is on the precipice of holding onto his job, a moderately-respectable loss would help. Any total north of 45.5 should welcome a wager on the Under.
Continue to overreact to the roster damage done by late-cycle coaching hires.
The damage done to those rosters has not yet been properly understood. To date, the nine programs that hired new coaches in mid-January or later are 23-42-1 ATS, including 3-3-1 last week and 7-7-1 the last two weeks, not counting Washington’s outright and ATS win against Michigan earlier this season, given both teams fit this description.
Those nine teams: UCLA, Michigan, Washington, Boston College, Arizona, Georgia State, Buffalo, South Alabama, and San Jose State.
Obviously, some teams have evened out to expectations, so two moments were specifically noted last week. Those two went 1-0-1, the push coming only because UConn so generously coughed up a cover against Georgia State.
In a similar vein...
Douglas' advice: UCLA upset Nebraska, a genuine surprise. Now the Bruins host Iowa. Here’s the thing... the Hawkeyes might have a good offense now? Iowa scored 42 points on Wisconsin this weekend, though one touchdown did come on an aggressively short field. So call it a 35-point showing. Last week, 40 points with 24 of them legitimate against Northwestern.
What changed? Quarterback Brendan Sullivan provides a more well-rounded offense than Cade McNamara ever did, but this has not been fully baked into the oddsmakers’ evaluations yet. Iowa should be favored by double digits.
Secondly, Michigan heads to Indiana this weekend. Let’s keep this simple: The Wolverines are 1-4 ATS in their last five, falling short of bookmakers’ expectations by an average of 11.9 points in those four ATS losses. Meanwhile, the Hoosiers are 8-1 ATS this season. In Big Ten play, they've exceeded expectations by an average of 19.5 points. Take Indiana up to -13.
Always remember, this is an idiotic sport played with an oblong ball.
HE KICKED THE BALL OFF OF HIS TEAMMATE'S FACEMASK AND THEN INTERCEPTED IT!!! 🤯🤯🤯pic.twitter.com/CatsWpNB0q
— Covers (@Covers) November 3, 2024
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