After shutting out a lowly Big Ten team last week, Ohio State’s defense has a chance to put a similar performance together against a struggling Northwestern offense at Wrigley Field.
Between the Buckeyes’ suffocating defense and the Wildcats’ non-existent offense, my Ohio State vs. Northwestern predictions expect a lower-scoring game.
Read more in my college football picks for Saturday, November 16.
Ohio State vs Northwestern prediction and best bet
My best bet
Under 44.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
My analysis
Ohio State has hit the Under in three straight games and five of its last six. With last week's total against Purdue hovering between 53 and 56 points last week, the Buckeyes easily hit the Under with their shutout win.
This game should see similar results, with Ohio State poised to score but its defense doing enough work to ensure the Under hits. Hell, Jim Knowles’ unit could even record its second straight shutout.
Ohio State’s defense has surrendered just 23 points since its loss to Oregon (Penn State’s lone touchdown came on a pick-six), and Northwestern doesn’t possess an offense that will end the Buckeyes’ dominant play.
The Wildcats rank 121st in the country in points per game (19.2) and that gets even worse in Big Ten play, where they’re scoring only 17.6 points per game. It’s an offense that has constantly seen drives stall, and now Northwestern has to take on the No. 1 defense by SP+.
Meanwhile, the Wildcats have a competent enough defense to hold the Buckeyes to fewer than 45. Northwestern’s defense sits 29th in SP+ and allows just 21.9 points per game.
Ohio State vs Northwestern same-game parlay (SGP)
Under 44.5
Emeka Egbuka anytime touchdown
TreVeyon Henderson Over 39.5 rushing yards
Jeremiah Smith gets all the hype for this Ohio State pass-catching group, but Emeka Egbuka might end up being a first-round pick this April. He’s found the end zone in six of his last seven games while racking up eight touchdowns during that stretch.
Northwestern’s defense also struggles more against the pass - ranking 74th in EPA per dropback - while Egbuka ranks Top-40 in the country in yards per route run (2.71) per PFF.
He’s not the only Buckeyes senior set to shine, as TreVeyon Henderson has shown off his explosiveness in recent weeks with seven runs of 15-plus yards in his last four games. He’s also topped 39.5 rushing yards in eight of nine games this season and should do so again against Northwestern.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Ohio State vs Northwestern odds
Ohio State vs Northwestern live odds
Ohio State vs Northwestern opening odds
- Ohio State vs. Northwestern spread: Northwestern +30.5
- Ohio State vs. Northwestern moneyline: Ohio State -20,000, Northwestern +2,800
- Ohio State vs. Northwestern Over/Under: 45.5
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
Ohio State vs Northwestern spread and Over/Under analysis
- Ohio State opened between a 30.5 and 31-point favorite, with most books coming down to -28.5.
- The Buckeyes are 5-4 ATS this season and have covered in two straight, while the Wildcats are just 3-6.
- After the game total opened at 45.5, it’s come down to between 44 and 44.5 at most books.
- Northwestern is 5-4 to the Over, while Ohio State has hit the Under in three straight.
Ohio State vs Northwestern betting trend to know
The Buckeyes have hit the game total Under in seven of their last 12 games (+1.55 Units / 12% ROI). Find more college football betting trends for Ohio State vs Northwestern.
Ohio State vs Northwestern game info
| Location: | Wrigley Field, Chicago, IL |
| Date: | Saturday, 11-16, 2024 |
| Kickoff: | 12:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | BTN |
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