On behalf of enjoying actual football in the fall rather than debating realignment, there may be an inclination to bet against the UTEP Miners this week, but the week’s off-field events may actually create value on the Miners, hosting the Sam Houston State Bearkats on Thursday.
My Sam Houston State vs. UTEP predictions will take the risk of trusting off-field momentum to show up on the artificial turf. These free college football picks see value in the home underdog, with kickoff at 9:00 ET on Thursday, October 3.
Sam Houston vs UTEP prediction
My best bet
UTEP +10.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
Picks made at the time of writing may not reflect live odds.
My analysis
This bet is not entirely based on off-field dynamics, but let’s start there. On Tuesday morning, it was reported that UTEP will join the Mountain West in this latest round of realignment nonsense. Is it idiotic to be pushing realignment just days before hosting a home game? Yes, yes it is.
UTEP to the Mountain West makes sense, UTEP's stadium is basically in the side of a small mountain.
— Douglas Farmer (@D_Farmer) October 1, 2024
But UTEP to the Mountain West in October makes no sense. We have three days of football coming up. Let's focus on them! https://t.co/TERKWxuNBh
But in this one particular instance, the joy that should come with this realignment could show up in the stands on Thursday night. El Paso is an underrated college football town. The Sun Bowl — the postseason exhibition, not the stadium itself — is one of the most historic bowl games and the city rallies loudly whenever the game can pull in notable teams like Notre Dame in 2023.
The Sun Bowl — the stadium itself — is one of the most beautiful venues in the sport, holding 51,500. Realize, the El Paso metropolitan population hovers right around a million people and is growing, up more than a percent in the last year.
— Tim Murray (@1TimMurray) October 1, 2024
It can be difficult to get excited about Conference USA games, a 10-team conference ranging from Virginia to Miami to New Mexico. Aside from playing New Mexico State (located just 40 miles away on I-10), there was little for UTEP fans to gear up for. The Mountain West is better competition, and the bulk of it is closer to the most western piece of Texas.
All of which is to say, Miners fans should be enthused this week, and their chance to express that could not be sooner. The usual home field advantage of the Sun Bowl should be weighted more heavily in this week’s line.
On the field, Sam Houston State needed a furious comeback last week, trailing by 18 points with less than 20 minutes left against Texas State, only to score 19 straight points to win with a field goal with just six seconds left. That kind of elation can make for a reasonable letdown.
The Bearkats have one of the most one-dimensional offenses in the country, running 11.1% more often than game state would expect from an average team, the 13th-highest in the country. That kind of approach can raise a program’s floor — which is why the three service academies lead the country in this regard — but also lower its ceiling. Expecting such an offense to cover a double-digit spread is always bold, but especially on the road when the atmosphere may be more exuberant than usual.
Sam Houston vs UTEP same-game parlay (SGP)
UTEP +10.5
Under 50.5
This would often be a moment to counterintuitively side with the double-digit underdog against the spread but also take the Over on the total. Facing an unorthodox offense like Sam Houston State’s on a weeknight is usually the recipe for a hurried defensive game plan and a chaotic game flow.
Fortunately, UTEP had last weekend off, giving the Miners plenty of time to be ready for an offense that could be described as a service academy without both the downfield passing attack and the outright commitment to the bit.
That is not to say UTEP will excel in slowing down Sam Houston State. The Miners' defense is not stellar. But it should fare well enough, particularly since the Bearkats produce quality drives on only 35.6% of their possessions.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Sam Houston vs UTEP odds
Sam Houston vs UTEP live odds
Sam Houston vs UTEP opening odds
- Sam Houston vs. UTEP spread: Sam Houston State -10.5
- Sam Houston vs. UTEP moneyline: Sam Houston State -400, UTEP +310
- Sam Houston vs. UTEP Over/Under: 50
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
Sam Houston vs UTEP spread and Over/Under analysis
- Sunday’s first lines posted UTEP as a 12-point underdog, a number that tightened to +10.5 before the broader market opened.
- The total opened at most books at 50.5 before toggling between 50.5 and 50 early in the week.
- While neither offense is particularly good, it is worth pointing out that both defenses are better, by pretty much any advanced metric than the respective offenses.
Sam Houston vs UTEP betting trend to know
All four of UTEP’s games have gone Under their totals this season by an average of 7.75 points. Find more college football betting trends for Sam Houston vs UTEP.
Sam Houston vs UTEP game info
| Location: | Sun Bowl, El Paso, TX |
| Date: | Thursday, 10-3, 2024 |
| Kickoff: | 9:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | CBSSN |
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