I’m coming off another 1-2 SU week, but am still up 5.5 units on touchdowns this year and have yet to go 0-fer. I don’t believe in jinxes.
This week, I have eyes on arguably the most important receiver in any offense while bargain shopping on a pair of high-usage running backs in bad offenses.
These are my favorite touchdown NFL picks for October 24.
Week 8 touchdown props
- A.J. Brown anytime TD (+150 at bet365)
- Alex Mattison anytime TD (+210 at bet365)
- Chuba Hubbard (+155 at DraftKings)
Read full analysis of each pick.
Best Week 8 TD props
TD Prop bet #1: A.J. Brown
Best odds: +150 at bet365
A.J. Brown is the motor that makes this offense run. He's scored in each of his three games played and is being targeted on a whopping 28% of his route run and 31% of Jaylen Hurts’ dropbacks. He might be the most important WR to any team in football.
A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith have run 85 routes together in 2024.
— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) October 20, 2024
Target share:
37% - AJB
20% - Smith
Air yardage share:
62% - AJB
14% - Smith
PPR output:
66.4 - AJB
31.6 - Smith
He'll have ample opportunities to score for a fourth straight game Sunday vs. the Bengals, who allow 1.6 passing TDs per game (24th). They could also be without starting safety Geno Stone who missed practice on Wednesday.
TD Prop bet #2: Alex Mattison
Best odds: +210 at bet365
Even with Zamir White, it was Alex Mattison who was RB1 last week vs. the Rams. His usage was insane, and despite an ugly offense, I have to take a back who got 26 of 30 running back opportunities for +170 or better.
Gardner Minshew will have to lean on the running back as he threw the ball more than 12 yards just three times last week. Mattison has 11 targets over his last three games and is used in the passing game as well.
He had the only RB carry in the red zone in Week 7, and although the Chiefs are a tough matchup, the Raiders still have a team total of over 14 points.
Mattison has been efficient in the RZ with seven carries and three scores, with the offense going to go through him and Brock Bowers. It's a divisional game, so a neutral game script is a possibility despite the nine-point spread.
The Raiders could give Mattison another 25 touches in Week 8 after 26 last week. It’s an ugly matchup, but the usage and price make this a play.
TD Prop bet #3: Chuba Hubbard
Best odds: +155 at DraftKings
This is the same approach as Alex Mattison. It’s an awful offense that will likely use its lead back for 66% of the offense.
Chuba Hubbard is game-script-proof and never comes off the field. The Panthers were trailing by double digits for 48 minutes last week, but the RB still had 17 of the 20 RB carries. He scored his fourth TD in seven games and has a TD in four of his last five matches.
Bryce Young will get the start, but that could mean even more work for Hubbard on the road vs. the Broncos. It’s not an easy matchup, and Carolina’s team total is around 14 points, but very few RBs in football have a snap share like Hubbard’s, which was 84% last week in the lopsided loss.
He won’t come off the field and will get all the red-zone carries. On the year, he has 19 of the Panthers' 26 RZ opportunities including 15 of the 19 carries.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
