The 4 Nations Face-Off has a Scandinavian showdown between Finland and Sweden on February 15.
Following an overtime loss to Canada in their opener, my top Finland vs. Sweden predictions and free betting picks expect the Swedes to rebound in a big way on Saturday afternoon.
Finland vs Sweden prediction
My pick
Sweden moneyline (-159 at BET99)
My analysis
I’m happy to grab this Sweden moneyline price ahead of Thursday’s tilt between Team USA and Team Finland because I’m expecting the Americans to show off against a weak Finn defense corps and the Swedes to be carrying considerably more chalk for the Saturday afternoon Scandinavian clash.
Sweden also impressed in the second and third periods of Wednesday’s loss to the Canadians. Team Sweden tilted the ice in its favor with a 63.89 Corsi For percentage and 62.25 expected goals percentage at five-on-five in the final two frames Wednesday, and only four Swedes finished below a 50.0 CF%.
Finland is incredibly inexperienced on the blue line, and Miro Heiskanen (knee) missing the tournament is a huge hit. The Finns are going to turn to defenseman Urho Vaakanainen, and he has only played 164 NHL games across his seven-year career, while Nikolas Matinpalo has played just 22 total.
I also give Sweden the advantage in net.
I suspect Sweden will pivot to Linus Ullmark, and he sports a solid .915 SV%, 2.49 GAA, and 0.26 goals saved above average per 60 minutes, including respective .944, 1.84 and 0.84 marks across his past 12 NHL starts.
Finland is going with Juuse Saros against Team USA on Thursday, and he hasn’t been strong with a .898 SV%, 2.95 GAA, and 0.02 GSAA/60. The alternative, Kevin Lankinen, has been moderately better with .905, 2.53, and 0.28 marks and might start Saturday.
Either way, I expect Sweden to outscore Finland.
Finland vs Sweden same-game parlay (SGP)
Sweden moneyline
Under 5.5
Because of the vulnerable collection of Finnish defensemen, I expect them to play ultra conservative to compensate, which will also limit their ability to generate quality scoring chances. Plus, this isn’t a lineup brimming with offensive firepower in the first place.
Mikko Rantanen and Mikael Granlund are the only Finns ranking inside the Top 50 NHL point scorers at 5-on-5, and Rantanen’s 63rd-ranked 11 goals at 5-on-5 pace the lineup.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Finland vs Sweden odds
| Finland | Sweden | |
|---|---|---|
| +140 | Moneyline | -159 |
| +1.5 (-190) | Puck line | -1.5 (+160) |
| Over 5.5 (+110) | Total | Under 5.5 (-130) |
Odds courtesy of BET99.
How to watch Finland vs Sweden
| Location | Bell Centre, Montreal, QC |
| Date | Saturday, 2-15-2025 |
| Puck drop | 1:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | ABC |
Not intended for use in MA.
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