We’ve got four elimination games on the playoff betting slate this evening, including Game 5 between the Toronto Maple Leafs and the Boston Bruins.
My Maple Leafs vs. Bruins predictions are expecting Tyler Bertuzzi to let it fly tonight in this do-or-die game. Find out more below in my NHL picks for this April 30 matchup.
Maple Leafs vs Bruins prediction
My best bet
Tyler Bertuzzi Over 2.5 shots on goal (+115 at SIA)
My analysis
Auston Matthews is a game-time decision due to an undisclosed illness, but the Toronto Maple Leafs practiced Monday afternoon as if he were going to miss the game and completely rejigged the lineup.
One of the beneficiaries of this shakeup could be Tyler Bertuzzi. He’s more than willing to shoot the puck while being on a line with Matthews and Max Domi, but would almost certainly be the go-to shooter if premier set-up man Mitch Marner were to replace 34 on that line tonight.
Bertuzzi’s shot prop is set at 2.5 and is paying plus-money (+115) on the Over. He’s topped this mark in three straight games in this series, averaging four shots per game in just over 20 minutes of ice time over that stretch.
The Leafs winger is second to only AM34 in shots on net this post-season with 14, and a good amount of them are coming from in tight. This is good because that’s the style of hockey the Leafs need to play tonight, which lends itself to Bertuzzi’s strengths — going to the net and getting chances in tight.
An additional coup for Bertuzzi’s shot prop is if he ends up playing alongside Marner. The Leafs playmaker has been among the league leaders in slot passes this season, so as long as Bertuzzi works himself into those areas, there should be ample opportunity for him to get off some shots in tight.
Maple Leafs vs Bruins same-game parlay (SGP)
Bertuzzi anytime goalscorer
Pastrnak anytime goalscorer
Leafs team total Under 3.5
Let’s mirror my Bertuzzi shots prop with an anytime goal. Bertuzzi had five goals in seven playoff games last year and is still sitting on just one this year despite getting to the right areas of the ice. With Marner and Domi teeing him up, there’s a good chance Bert gets a few good looks tonight and hopefully scores on one.
Next up, let’s go with an anytime goal from David Pastrnak. He’s been held in check for the most part this series by Mitch Marner, but if Matthews is out, matchup responsibilities will shift over to William Nylander, who is less effective on his own end. That should free up Pasta a bit at 5-on-5.
For my final leg, let’s take the Leafs Total Under 3.5 because, well, the Buds can’t score. They’ve gone Under this number in 11 straight playoff games.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Maple Leafs vs Bruins odds
Maple Leafs vs Bruins live odds
Maple Leafs vs Bruins opening odds
- Puck line: Toronto +1.5 | Boston -1.5
- Moneyline: Toronto +120 | Boston -140
- Over/Under: Over 5.5 | Under 5.5
Maple Leafs vs Bruins moneyline and Over/Under analysis
- The Maple Leafs stand as +140 road dogs while the Bruins are -165 favorites to close out the series.
- Boston has dominated the Buds, winning nine of the last 10 meetings.
- The total opened at 5.5 and remains there.
- The Over is favored at -120, while the Under is paying even money at +100.
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Maple Leafs vs Bruins trend
The Maple Leafs have hit the third-period game total Under in five of their last six games. Find more NHL betting trends for Maple Leafs vs. Bruins.
Maple Leafs vs Bruins game info
| Location: | TD Garden, Boston, MA |
| Date: | Tuesday, 4-30-2024 |
| Puck drop: | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN, SN |
Maple Leafs vs Bruins latest injuries
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