The Florida Panthers haven’t had an answer for Edmonton Oilers superstar Connor McDavid since Game 1, and the Stanley Cup Final returns to Rogers Place for Game 6 tonight.
McDavid’s Game 5 heroics have him up to three goals and eight assists in the series, and he’s quickly building an impressive case to be the warranted frontrunner in the Conn Smythe odds. Here are our top McDavid NHL picks for Game 6.
Connor McDavid prop picks for June 21
- McDavid Under 0.5 power-play points (-110 at BET99)
- McDavid Under 1.5 points (+110 at BET99)
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Connor McDavid best bets
McDavid Under 0.5 power-play points (-110)
The Edmonton Oilers power play has scored three times in the past two games, and Connor McDavid has collected an assist on all three tallies. Florida held the Oilers in check while shorthanded through the first three games of the series, and both playing more disciplined and tightening up defensively while shorthanded will be key for the Panthers in Game 6.
Florida averaged 4:49 of shorthanded time per game in Round 3 against the New York Rangers, and the Panthers have been down a man for 7:47 per game in the final against Edmonton.
The Cats will clean up their play to limit power-play opportunities for the Oil, with McDavid seeing fewer minutes with the man advantage.
Additionally, Florida’s 72.7 penalty-kill percentage the past two games is well below the 90.2% mark the Panthers posted through their first 20 postseason games, and they also ranked sixth with an 82.5 PK% during the regular season. Statistical correction is ahead.
Connor McDavid prop: Under 0.5 power-play points (-110 at BET99)
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McDavid Under 1.5 points (+110)
Cooling McDavid with the man advantage correlates with him also failing to post a multi-point showing for the first time in four games.
Florida held the star to a single point through the first two games of the series, and the Oilers have an unsustainably high 22.7 team shooting percentage with McDavid on the ice the past three games. Edmonton had a 13.9% mark with No. 97 on the ice through its first 21 playoff games.
Panthers starter Sergei Bobrovsky will play better, too. He has been lit up for nine goals and a .769 save percentage across the past two games, and he’s better than that.
Florida is also a better defensive team than it's shown. The Panthers allowed the second-fewest expected goals at 5-on-5 (2.23) this postseason before this two-game hiccup, and Bobrovsky posted a .953 SV% through the first three games of the series. Look for the Russian’s numbers to meet in the middle tonight, and McDavid’s multi-point streak to end.
Connor McDavid prop: Under 1.5 points (+110 at BET99)
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