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49ers have hank stram formula |
lajohn | 43 |
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@typeone literally lost last year with his awful eagles pick |
don juan | 133 |
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odd how you didnt bump his bet of the eagles last year, which I called him out on |
don juan | 133 |
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Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:
What a next level gambler should do: For each game, use a predictive model to develop your own key numbers unique to that specific game - and assign probabilities to those outcomes. Then get the lowest line / price combination you can for those outcomes, and bet the one that is the cheapest - or best - related to the probability you assigned. Remember - you dont necessarily care if you win THIS bet. You care if you are PROFITABLE over the next 100 bets. You have to get used to the idea that a lot of times you make sports bets that you think will lose, or have a greater than 50% chance of losing, because the payout (or price) makes it a long term good bet.
Wonderful stuff |
Tiltmachine23 | 45 |
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@bobmaloogatimesfive it is hopeless here. I got a smart community of people who arent hopeless |
gooch72 | 17 |
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@gooch72 love to hear it |
gooch72 | 17 |
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replied to
One bet and one bet only -- Celtics vs. Lakers = Finals Exacta @ +2800 on Fanduel right now
in NBA Betting great call sir |
bobmaloogatimesfive | 63 |
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Appreciate this |
Bridge1 | 9 |
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The don juan I know is an "x factor" handicapper. The don juan I know would never take hurts over mahomes in a big game. Period. |
don juan | 200 |
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Good to see you.
You are either biased or losing your marbkles if you believe this "Despite all of the trash that was spoken agains Philly´s super easy schedule during the course of the season, once that everything ended, we go back to check the stats and theEagles actually had the TOUGHEST schedule in the NFL"
Such a bad take, Best qb they played all year was dak prescott who destroyed them. 2nd best was kirk cousins, but it was on primetime, where cousins is like 1-10 |
gutinstinctus | 43 |
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I have just done it With 2 pushes on stats Chiefs 31.5 eagles 22 |
lajohn | 3 |
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Respect to don juan
Blindly following anyone is stupid. Almost as stupid as the line "as I watched Jalen Hurts play at Alabama and Oklahoma, I thought he'd make an excellent NFL quarterback. He exhibited the same calm and composure as Patrick Mahomes over the last two years"
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don juan | 200 |
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I have found that the nfl market is not the efficient goliath that people hype it up to be. You can get ahead of most line moves just by studying the weather and injury reports. The other line moves come when a respected group pounds a side as if they already know the result, but if you trust your numbers, you can fade that steam easily |
garbagetime | 12 |
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@vanzack I will do my best I'm always interested in threads that discuss handicapping. |
garbagetime | 12 |
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Thanks for your thoughts. Clv has become a cult. It is only useful to see if your process is profitable long term. Short term, or in individual cases it means nothing. I also know that many syndicates and large betting groups actually PREFER not to have clv because it affects their potential liquidity if books know their bets destabilize the market line too much. Focus on your process and everything will work out. Plenty of value to be found on a sunday morning |
garbagetime | 12 |
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Easier to rig play calls |
Tressel33 | 22 |
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Current consensus is 2 points, some teams dont even deserve one. It is getting diminished in all sports |
handicap6272 | 25 |
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Don juan is an intangible guy. Prolly bengals |
don juan | 76 |
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Lol its blood money. He gets paid to follow a script. He literally threw the ball right at a defender on purpose |
ActionMagnet | 29 |
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Good to see you don juan |
don juan | 76 |
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