Break out the brooms? Max Fried and the Atlanta Braves (64-56) go for the four-game sweep of Logan Webb and the San Francisco Giants (61-62) on Thursday afternoon at Oracle Park.
I examine the total with my Braves vs. Giants predictions and MLB picks for Thursday, August 15.
Braves vs Giants prediction
My best bet
Under 7 (+100 at BetMGM)
My analysis
Thursday’s series finale features two established, veteran starting pitchers in Max Fried for the Atlanta Braves and Logan Webb for the San Francisco Giants. The first two games of the series were low-scoring while the third saw Atlanta explode for 13 runs after chasing Robbie Ray in the very first inning, so where does that leave us for Game 4?
San Franciso has been in a rut at the plate with an 89 wRC+ (27th) and a .291 wOBA (also 27th) across the last 15 days. Bob Melvin’s squad has scored five runs through the first three games of the series, hardly instilling confidence heading into Thursday.
Fried is as steady as they come, holding an ERA below 4.00 in the last five seasons. The veteran southpaw excels at limiting hard contact, ranking in the 98th percentile in average exit velocity (85.3 mph), the 89th percentile in hard-hit rate (32.3%), and the 86th percentile in barrel rate (5.2%).
With the wind blowing out to center field at 8-11 mph throughout the game, Fried can mitigate that effect with his penchant for inducing soft contact and groundballs (96th percentile ground ball rate).
His counterpart, Webb, is also an extreme groundball pitcher (94th percentile). His profile is tough to gauge this season as he’s been allowing more hard contact than usual, but his 2.87 FIP remains excellent and he’s been nearly unbeatable at home with a 2.49 ERA. The ace squares off against an Atlanta lineup with an underwhelming 94 wRC+ against RHP.
When the starters are pulled, both teams are in relatively good hands as both bullpens have been Top-15 units by FIP and xFIP across the last 15 days.
Sign me up for the Under.
Braves vs Giants same-game parlay (SGP)
Under 7
Max Fried Over 5.5 strikeouts
Matt Chapman 2+ total bases
Fried has recorded at least six strikeouts in three straight outings. The southpaw matches up with a San Francisco lineup that can’t stop striking out against LHP with a 29.1% K-rate in the last 15 days.
The third and final leg of this SGP may seem counterintuitive, but it also results in the +750 price. Matt Chapman has elite underlying metrics this season and crushes LHP with a 143 wRC+. As a flyball hitter. Chapman should counteract Fried’s groundball tendencies.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Braves vs Giants odds
Braves vs Giants live odds
Braves vs Giants opening odds
- Run line: Atlanta -1.5 | San Francisco +1.5
- Moneyline: Atlanta -105 | San Francisco -103
- Over/Under: Over 7 | Under 7
Braves vs Giants spread and Over/Under analysis
- San Francisco is typically tough to beat at home (35-26) but is just 2-5 in its last seven.
- Atlanta is 6-2 in its last eight road games.
- Atlanta has trended toward the Under overall this year (46-68 O/U) while San Francisco has been an Under team at home (28-33-1 O/U).
- Atlanta is 5-6 O/U when Fried takes the mound on the road while San Francisco is 4-7 O/U when Webb gets the call at Oracle Park.
Braves vs Giants trend
San Francisco is 4-9 O/U in its last 13 home games. Find more MLB betting trends for Braves vs. Giants.
Braves vs Giants game info
| Location: | Oracle Park, San Francisco, CA |
| Date: | Thursday, 8-15-2024 |
| First pitch: | 3:45 p.m. ET |
| TV: | BSSO, NBCSBA |
| Braves starting pitcher: | Max Fried (7-6, 3.56 ERA) |
| Giants starting pitcher: | Logan Webb (10-8, 3.32 ERA) |
Braves vs Giants latest injuries
Braves vs Giants weather
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