The Atlanta Braves and Boston Red Sox wrap up a two-game set at Fenway Park this afternoon.
Rafael Devers headlines my Braves vs. Red Sox predictions as he steps into the box against rookie right-hander Spencer Schwellenbach making his second career start.
Read on for my MLB picks for this day game clash in Boston.
Braves vs Red Sox prediction
My best bet
Rafael Devers Over 1.5 total bases (-125 at bet365)
Best odds available in your region
My analysis
Boston Red Sox third baseman Rafael Devers began the season mired in a slump but all he needed was a factory reset. After missing a week with a bone bruise, he returned to the lineup on April 24 and has been raking ever since, slashing .314/.390/.600 in his last 37 games.
Devers is a two-time Silver Slugger winner and the fact that he has ranked in the top seventh percentile in average exit velocity for the last six years is a testament to his consistency. He'll also have a favorable matchup today with the Atlanta Braves sending rookie Spencer Schwellenbach to the mound.
Schwellenbach made his big league debut last week against the Nationals, giving up five hits and three runs while fanning five batters in five innings of work. The 23-year-old is a promising prospect but pitched just 13 innings at Double-A Mississippi and skipped Triple-A entirely, so he isn't quite ready for this level.
The left-handed Devers also has extreme platoon splits and has slugged .552 against righties in his career while boasting an incredible .656 slugging percentage this year.
Braves vs Red Sox same-game parlay (SGP)
Rafael Devers Over 1.5 total bases
Nick Pivetta Over 6.5 strikeouts
Orlando Arcia Over 0.5 hits
The Red Sox are giving the pill to Nick Pivetta, who has a 4.08 ERA with a 1.05 WHIP through seven starts. Pivetta has been sharp in five starts but he struggled mightily in the other two, including an ugly performance in Atlanta on May 8 when he surrendered three dingers and five runs in four innings.
That said, Pivetta has fanned 8+ batters in three of his last four starts and the hard-hitting Braves lineup is prone to striking out. They are a Bottom-10 lineup when it comes to chase and whiff rates and rank 17th in strikeout rate. With Pivetta in the Top 15th percentile in strikeout rate, it makes sense to back him on his Ks prop.
Orlando Arcia is hitting just .235 this year but he had a respectable .264 BA last year and has gone 6-for-7 against Pivetta in his career.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Braves vs Red Sox odds
Braves vs Red Sox live odds
Braves vs Red Sox opening odds
- Run line: Atlanta 1.5 (+140) | Boston +1.5 (-165)
- Moneyline: Atlanta -110 | Boston -110
- Over/Under: Over 9.5 (-120) | Under 9 (+100)
Braves vs Red Sox spread and Over/Under analysis
- While the moneyline has stayed steady, the total has ticked up half a run from the opening O/U of 9.
- The Braves are 6-2 to the Under on their team total since losing 2023 NL MVP Ronald Acuna Jr. to a season-ending injury.
- The Red Sox have an OPS of just .667 over the last two weeks and four regular starters in their lineup are currently sidelined by injuries.
- Braves DH Marcell Ozuna is third in the majors in OPS and has gone 8-for-26 at the dish with six homers against Pivetta in his career.
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Braves vs Red Sox trend
The Red Sox have hit the First Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 14 of their last 22 games (+4.75 Units / 17% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Braves vs. Red Sox
Braves vs Red Sox game info
| Location: | Fenway Park, Boston, MA |
| Date: | Wednesday, 6-5-2024 |
| First pitch: | 1:35 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Bally Sports South, NESN |
| Braves starting pitcher: | Spencer Schwellenbach (0-1, 5.40 ERA) |
| Red Sox starting pitcher: | Nick Pivetta (2-4, 4.08 ERA) |
Braves vs Red Sox latest injuries
Braves vs Red Sox weather
Not intended for use in MA.
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