Atlanta Braves lefty Max Fried vs. Minnesota Twins righty Bailey Ober is an intriguing pitching matchup as both are capable of being among the best hurlers in the game.
My Braves vs. Twins predictions expect both starters will bring their A games tonight at Target Field as my MLB picks circle a low-scoring affair.
Braves vs Twins prediction
My best bet
Under 8 (-114 at FanDuel)
My analysis
Atlanta Braves left-hander Max Fried takes the mound tonight against the Minnesota Twins, and the southpaw who possesses a 3.57 ERA and 1.22 WHIP through 22 starts this season should be a strong candidate to back once more.
His underlying metrics are equally strong as Fried ranks in the 84th percentile or higher in average exit velocity, barrel rate, and hard-hit rate, indicating an ability to suppress damage from opposing hitters. While he's scuffled a bit this summer, he's coming off a strong start against the Phillies where he limited them to two runs on four hits over seven strong innings.
After Fried, Atlanta’s relief staff ranks in the Top 3 in ERA, FIP, and xFIP. That’s not to say the Twins’ bullpen is much worse, given that it ranks in the top half in each of those three categories as well.
I don’t suspect this relief staff will need to be relied upon too much, given that right-hander Bailey Ober gets the ball. Ober is 12-5 through 24 starts with a 3.54 ERA and 0.99 WHIP.
The right-hander’s analytics are even stronger, given that Ober ranks in the 74th percentile or higher in xERA, xBA, average exit velocity, strikeout rate, walk rate, and hard-hit rate. He’s been on a tear over the past couple of months, surrendering three or fewer runs in 11 consecutive starts.
Ober is 7-1 over that stretch with a commanding 2.09 ERA while completing at least six innings each time.
Braves vs Twins same-game parlay (SGP)
Under 8
Max Fried Over 4.5 strikeouts
Bailey Ober Over 5.5 strikeouts
If we expect a low-scoring affair, then both starting pitchers putting together strong performances is a highly correlated outcome. Let’s start with Ober, who ranks in the top quarter of the league in chase, whiff, and strikeout rates.
You can currently find his strikeout prop at 5.5, a total that the right-hander has surpassed in eight of his past 11 starts. Meanwhile, Fried’s strikeout prop sits at 4.5, a number he has covered in four of his past five outings.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Braves vs Twins odds
Braves vs Twins live odds
Braves vs Twins opening odds
- Moneyline: Atlanta -108 | Minnesota -108
- Run line: Atlanta -1.5 (+158) | Minnesota +1.5 (-192)
- Over/Under: Over 8 (-115) | Under 8 (-105)
Braves vs Twins moneyline and Over/Under analysis
- This game opened as a pick ‘em before the market moved Minnesota to a slight favorite at -120.
- I project this line to continue to move in the Twins’ direction, given they outrank Atlanta in runs scored per game, hits per game, BA, OBP, SLG, OPS, and stolen bases.
- The total opened at eight and remains at that number at the time of writing.
- The juice continues to move toward the Under, which makes sense considering all the aforementioned variables.
Braves vs Twins trend
There have been eight or fewer total runs scored in eight of Minnesota’s past 11 games. Find more MLB betting trends for Braves vs Twins.
Braves vs Twins game info
| Location: | Target Field, Minneapolis, MN |
| Date: | Monday, 8-26-2024 |
| First pitch: | 7:40 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Bally Sports North, Bally Sports South |
| Cubs starting pitcher: | Max Fried (7-7, 3.57 ERA) |
| Pirates starting pitcher: | Bailey Ober (12-5, 3.54 ERA) |
Braves vs Twins latest injuries
Braves vs Twins weather
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