The New York Yankees are slight underdogs when they meet the Atlanta Braves for the rubber game of this three-game inter-league series.
Braves vs Yankees prediction
My best bet
Braves first-five moneyline (-110 at BetMGM)
My analysis
With a series on the line and the wind blowing out to left, the Atlanta Braves have the right man on the hill today in lefty ace Max Fried. Fried has tremendous command with a 60% groundball rate and both will be valuable today against a potent New York Yankees offense.
Fried fires an arsenal of seven pitches and has been solid in his last five starts, allowing eight earned runs with 37 strikeouts and a pair of road bombs with seven walks across 34 1/3 frames.
New York's offense has been decent against lefties this season, but it's been a struggle the past 14 days. The Bombers' strikeout rate has increased and its .254 BABIP is 13 points lower than its season average against southpaws.
Yankees starter Nestor Cortes has been solid across his past five starts; the southpaw has yielded 11 earned runs with 23 strikeouts and five home runs. Cortes has been amazing at home (4-2. 1.57) but righties have cracked 10 bombs this season and he’ll likely see seven Braves batting from the right side.
Atlanta is seasonally above average facing southpaws with a good matchup. Cortes is a fly-ball pitcher who may be overwhelming at Yankee Stadium but inconsistent everywhere else. He’s also served up all 10 of his homers this season to right-handed lumber and meets a Braves offense with a .764 OPS, and it’s.310 BABIP suggests the Bravos sticks have been unlucky.
Fried has been money this season and I expect him to keep the ball on the ground, rack up strikeouts, and help the Braves win the first five innings.
Braves vs Yankees same-game parlay (SGP)
Braves first-five moneyline
Under 8.5
Braves moneyline
Our matchup has two strong starters with above-average bullpens. Today’s starting pitching has a combined xERA of fewer than seven runs and Fried has been dominant practically everywhere while Cortes has been highly effective at home.
That should keep the scoring down but Fried has the edge on a windy day. The Atlanta lefty serves up a high groundball rate with quality starts in six of his past nine away clashes. The Yankees have dropped five of their last seven in the Bronx while the Braves are 4-1 against N.Y. across their last five and 6-3 when Fried pitches from the visitors' dugout.
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Braves vs Yankees odds
Braves vs Yankees live odds
Braves vs Yankees opening odds
- Run line: Atlanta -1.5 (+145) | New York +1.5 (-175)
- Moneyline: Atlanta -115 | New York -105
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 | Under 8.5
Braves vs Yankees spread and Over/Under analysis
- Atlanta opened as low as -115 but was bet down with markets trading prices at -108 to -115 with 38% of the bets and 59% of the cash at DraftKings on Atlanta.
- N.Y. opened as an even money underdog, but trading moneyline odds at -104 to -112 with 62% of the wagers and 41% of the money at FanDuel on the Bombers.
- Over/Under markets opened between 8.5 and 9. Over 8.5 markets are priced from -120 to -122 while Under 8.5 is trading odds of +100 to +102.
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Braves vs Yankees trend
The Braves have cashed the moneyline in seven of their last nine games (+4.80 units / 37% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Braves vs. Yankees
Braves vs Yankees game info
| Location: | Yankee Stadium, Bronx, NY |
| Date: | Sunday, 6-23-2024 |
| First pitch: | 1:35 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Bally Southeast, YES |
| Braves starting pitcher: | Max Fried (6-3, 3.11 ERA) |
| Yankees starting pitcher: | Nestor Cortes (4-5, 3.36 ERA) |
Braves vs Yankees latest injuries
Braves vs Yankees weather
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