Game 1 of the Route 66 rivalry between the Chicago Cubs and St. Louis Cardinals goes down Friday night at Busch Stadium, and the NL Central foes enter in opposite form.
The Cubs are rolling along on a 6-1 run that includes four consecutive wins, while the Cards dropped two straight ahead of Thursday’s off day. St. Louis is the betting favorite with veteran righty Sonny Gray starting, and Chicago will counter with a struggling Kyle Hendricks.
Here are our free Cubs vs. Cardinals predictions and MLB picks for the series opener on July 12.
Cubs vs Cardinals prediction
My best bet
Over 7.5 (-125 at Sports Interaction)
My analysis
The Chicago Cubs have woken up offensively during their 6-1 surge with an average of 5.9 runs per game, and there’s no way to hide Kyle Hendricks’ shortcomings as a starter this season. He’s posted a confidence-shattering 8.82 ERA and 1.71 WHIP while allowing opposing hitters to tee off to the tune of a .546 slugging percentage and .397 wOBA across his 11 starts.
It’s been ugly, and Hendricks also left his latest outing after just two innings because of lower-back tightness.
The St. Louis Cardinals have had success against righties, too. They sport a 10th-ranked .316 wOBA and 107 wRC+, and I additionally value the Cards ranking sixth in batting average (.253) against right-handed arms because of Hendricks’ lack of swing-and-miss stuff.
Turning to Cardinals starter Sonny Gray, he has also hit a rough patch in his past two starts and surrendered 11 runs across just 9 1/3 innings. Gray will be pitching with two days of extra rest on Friday, and the back-to-back tough outings were filled with bad luck. He posted a 42.2% LOB% and opposing hitters posted a .483 BABIP.
Still, the pitch values of Gray’s secondary offerings (cutter, sinker, slider and curve) have all dipped in effectiveness the past two starts, per FanGraphs. So, while there’s been some unluckiness, he also hasn’t been as sharp.
Finally, I also value the market moving to the Over in this game early, and the weather forecast at Busch Stadium is favorable for offense with a temperature of 85.9 °F.
Cubs vs Cardinals same-game parlay (SGP)
Over 7.5
Kyle Hendricks Over 5.5 hits allowed
Hendricks sports a middling 7.1% walk rate and ranks 136th in strikeout percentage (16.6%) among 152 pitchers with at least 50 innings this season, so I’m expecting him to continue pitching to contact Friday. As discussed, the Cardinals have also been solid at the dish against right-handed hurlers, so I expect them to find some holes and be busy on the paths.
There’s also a notable edge in the numbers for this same-game parlay through bet365, with it priced at just +178 through DraftKings. We’re landing a positive expected value of 17% with the +225 bet365 odds.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Cubs vs Cardinals odds
Cubs vs Cardinals live odds
Cubs vs Cardinals opening odds
- Run line: Chicago +1.5 | St. Louis -1.5
- Moneyline: Chicago +172 | St. Louis -188
- Over/Under: Over 8 | Under 8
Cubs vs Cardinals spread and Over/Under analysis
- There’s been back-and-forth action on this moneyline at most shops, with Pinnacle opening St. Louis -188 early Friday morning. The number is now -185 after dipping to -191 following initial Cards steam.
- The moneyline has seen similar adjustments through bet365, too. Chicago opened +170 Thursday evening and went as low as +160 before settling at +165 as of Friday morning.
- It’s been a similar story with the total. The number moved from 8 to 8.5 at Pinnacle before returning to 8 (-115/+102) as of Friday morning, and bet365 saw similar shifts in the odds but never left the 8 total.
Cubs vs Cardinals trend
The Cardinals have hit the Team Total Over in 24 of their last 40 games (+6.75 Units / 15% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Cubs vs. Cardinals
Cubs vs Cardinals game info
| Location: | Busch Stadium, St. Louis, MO |
| Date: | Friday, 7-12-2024 |
| First pitch: | 8:15 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Apple TV+ |
| Cubs starting pitcher: | Kyle Hendricks (1-7, 7.53 ERA) |
| Cardinals starting pitcher: | Sonny Gray (9-5, 3.30 ERA) |
Cubs vs Cardinals latest injuries
Cubs vs Cardinals weather
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