Cubs vs Orioles Prediction, Picks, & Odds for Tonight’s MLB Game

Corbin Burnes has been chewing through opposing lineups, and our MLB picks don't see any different tonight when the Orioles host the Cubs.

Neil Parker • Betting Analyst

Jul 10, 2024 • 11:58 ET • 4 min read

This article contains predictions for an old game!

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A pair of All-Star arms go head-to-head with the Baltimore Orioles and ace Corbin Burnes playing host to Chicago Cubs and Shota Imanaga on Wednesday.

Chicago ran away with a 9-2 win in the series opener, improving to a 4-1 stretch. Still, the Cubs are last in the NL Central, while the Orioles are leading the way in the AL East and a sizable favorite to even the series tonight — which my Cubs vs. Orioles prediction tabs Burnes to fulfill.

Here are our free MLB picks for tonight’s rematch.

Cubs vs Orioles prediction

My best bet
Corbin Burnes to record the win (+125 at bet365)

My analysis

There’s been no comparison between the offenses of the Chicago Cubs and Baltimore Orioles, and the Orioles have been even better against southpaws, with a third-ranked .341 wOBA and 124 wRC+ while also ranking second with a .199 ISO. Chicago, respectively, ranks 19th (.304), 17th (97), and 20th (.144) against righties.

I’m anticipating Baltimore starter Corbin Burnes to continue strengthening his Cy Young odds case Wednesday, while the Orioles lineup puts runs on the board against Cubbies lefty Shota Imanaga.

Imanaga hasn’t been nearly as sharp through his past seven starts, with a 6.51 ERA, 1.39 WHIP, and 4.39 xFIP. Those numbers soar way above his 0.84, 0.91, and 3.24 marks through his first nine outings, and it’s pretty clear MLB hitters are beginning to catch up to the 30-year-old rookie.

Of course, it’s primarily been a pair of tough showings that have done the majority of the statistical damage for Imanaga, and he’s toeing the rubber with an extra day of rest Wednesday. Still, the Baltimore lineup packs top-to-bottom punch, and Burnes isn’t eyeing serious statistical correction. His second-ranked 2.32 ERA among qualified starters is supported by a sixth-ranked 3.00 xERA and an 18th-ranked 3.38 xFIP.

Finally, I also value and agree with the consensus movement to the Baltimore side of this moneyline and view this Burnes prop as a complementary offering with better odds. Opting to pivot to the Orioles moneyline is definitely in play, but the best number is long gone.

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Cubs vs Orioles same-game parlay (SGP)

Corbin Burnes to record the win

Corbin Burnes Over 18.5 outs

Orioles Over 3.5 runs

+400 at bet365

Burnes recording the win and pitching deep into Wednesday’s game are correlated plays. He’s pitched at least seven innings in five of his past seven starts, and at least six in all seven while averaging 95 pitches per start.

Additionally, as discussed, I do expect the Baltimore offense to score against Imanaga. However, I also value the Chicago bullpen ranking 20th in xFIP (4.19) with a similar 4.22 mark since July 1. The Orioles are positioned to score late, if needed, too.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Cubs vs Orioles odds

Cubs vs Orioles live odds

Cubs vs Orioles opening odds

Run line: Chicago +1.5 (-140) | Baltimore -1.5 (+120)
Moneyline: Chicago +140 | Baltimore -165
Over/Under: Over 8 (-110) | Under 8 (-110)

Cubs vs Orioles spread and Over/Under analysis

As noted, there has been a move to the Baltimore side of this moneyline. Pinnacle moved from an opening Orioles -160 to -177 as of Wednesday morning, and bet365 similarly adjusted from an opening -165 to -180.
It’s also notable that there was buyback on the Cubs early Wednesday morning, but it was followed with more Baltimore action, so I consider this an accurate and mature market.
This total has also seen notable movement, with the number climbing from an opening 8.0 (-105/-107) at Pinnacle to 9.0 (+104/-117) as of Wednesday morning. Again, bet365 has made similar adjustments.
It’s rare to see a total move an entire run in such a short period of time, and I think it aligns with Imanaga’s recent slide.

Cubs vs Orioles trend

Corbin Burnes has won five of his past seven starts. Find more MLB betting trends for Cubs vs. Orioles

Cubs vs Orioles game info

Location:	Oriole Park at Camden Yards, Baltimore, MD
Date:	Wednesday, 7-10-2024
First pitch:	6:35 p.m. ET
TV:	Marquee, MASN2
Cubs starting pitcher:	Shota Imanaga (7-2, 3.16 ERA)
Orioles starting pitcher:	Corbin Burnes (9-3, 2.32 ERA)

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Neil Parker

Betting Analyst

Neil Parker is, first and foremost, a sports fan. A huge supporter of the Cowboys, Cubs, and Maple Leafs, he has managed to parlay his passion into writing gigs with Sportsbook Review, USA TODAY, theScore, DraftKings Playbook, and RotoWire, among many others. He also co-hosted the Daily Fantasy Edge podcast and can now be seen offering expert golf and hockey advice on Covers’ Before you Bet broadcast.

Neil takes a numbers-based approach to his handicapping and complements his in-depth statistical analysis with a keen eye on the markets to provide the best available odds. He loves to lean on his rolodex of idioms to offset his inner nerd. When it comes to wagering, he throws down on anything that catches his eye at bet365, Betway and BetVictor. He also keeps a close eye on CoolBet because the polar bear brand often has outlier NHL and NFL moneyline prices.

Neil graduated with honors from St. Thomas University in 2007 before completing his BEd at Acadia University in 2010. After teaching a myriad of courses and subjects, he found a groove delivering fun lessons to exceptional learners in non-traditional classroom environments. If his decade-plus teaching run taught him anything about sports betting, it’s to stay the course and use the summer – or offseason – to refresh and prepare to be better in the year to come.

Neil’s top pieces of advice for recreational bettors are to stay within your means and to remember sportsbooks aren’t bank accounts. Don’t be afraid to pull those winnings and treat yourself to a lifetime experience courtesy of a big win.