The Pittsburgh Pirates send superstar rookie Paul Skenes to the hill to cool the Chicago Cubs and try to avoid being swept by their division rival on Wednesday afternoon.
Chicago will counter with veteran Kyle Hendricks, with the North Siders remaining on the fringe of the NL Wild Card race. My Cubs vs. Pirates predictions and MLB picks for August 28 see value in the road underdogs.
Cubs vs Pirates prediction
My best bet
Cubs moneyline (+141 at Pinnacle)
My analysis
The Chicago Cubs are rolling along an 8-3 stretch with a second-ranked .358 wOBA and .231 ISO while also sporting a 17th-ranked .285 BABIP. I believe there’s sustainability in the heater because the Cubbies rank third with a 10.3 BB% and have a fifth-lowest 18.3 K%, too.
Additionally, as stellar as Pittsburgh Pirates starter Paul Skenes has been, his workload is inching closer and closer to being capped.
Ben Cherington says on his @937theFan radio show that there is a range of innings they don't want Paul Skenes to go past this season. That could lead to shorter starts down the stretch.
— Alex Stumpf (@AlexJStumpf) August 25, 2024
I wrote more on that here:https://t.co/oQkeHTdzFK
I expect Skenes to deal per usual and approach 90 pitches across five-plus innings, but that still leaves plenty of time for the reeling Bucs bullpen to blow up. Pittsburgh has already relied on relievers for 10 innings through the first two games of this series, and the Pirates' bullpen sports a 26th-ranked ERA (4.41) and 25th-ranked xFIP (4.29) for the campaign.
Chicago starter Kyle Hendricks has also battled through his past four starts to post a respectable 3.92 ERA and 4.30 xFIP while holding opposing hitters to a manageable 31.9% hard-hit rate. Of course, Pittsburgh checks out as a favorable matchup with a 29th-ranked .290 wOBA against righties this season, too.
I’m not anticipating the Pittsburgh bats pulling away this afternoon, and there has also been a notable move to the Chicago side of this moneyline that I agree with. Finally, I value the improvement from the Cubs' bullpen with their second-ranked 2.94 ERA and sixth-ranked 3.77 xFIP since the All-Star break.
Paul Skenes player prop
My best bet
Paul Skenes Over 1.5 walks allowed (+100 at BetMGM)
My analysis
Skenes has walked two or more batters in three of his past five starts, with his 3.68 BB/9 and 10.3 BB% during the stretch well above his respective 1.57 and 4.6% marks through his first 12 starts of the season. The Cubs are also patient at the plate with a fifth-ranked 9.5 BB% against right-handed pitchers for the campaign.
There’s a two-part explanation for the uptick in walks from Skenes, too. He has been throwing far fewer pitches in the strike zone, and opposing batters have been swinging at far fewer of his offerings overall, per FanGraphs. Just 45.8% of his pitches have been in the zone, and opposing hitters have only swung 45.8% of the time across his past five starts, and those percentages are notably below his respective 54.9% and 51.5% marks through his first 12 appearances.
Cubs vs Pirates same-game parlay (SGP)
Cubs moneyline
Paul Skenes Over 1.5 walks allowed
Seiya Suzuki 1+ strikeout
Cubs outfielder Seiya Suzuki doesn’t get cheated at the dish, and he’s struck out at least once in 11 of his past 13 games while sporting a 27.1 K% that’s right in line with his 28.9% mark against right-handed pitchers this season.
Suzuki has also struck out twice through three at-bats against Skenes, and the Pittsburgh strikeout artist ranks fourth in K/9 (11.25) and third with 32.5 K% among pitchers with at least 100 innings this season. I expect Suzuki to face Skenes three times Wednesday and go down swinging at least once.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Cubs vs Pirates odds
Cubs vs Pirates live odds
Cubs vs Pirates opening odds
- Moneyline: Chicago +151 | Pittsburgh -165
- Run line: Chicago +1.5 | Pittsburgh -1.5
- Over/Under: Over 7.5 | Under 7.5
Cubs vs Pirates moneyline and Over/Under analysis
- As noted, there has been a notable move to the Chicago side of this moneyline, with Pinnacle opening Cubs +151 and trading at +141 as of Wednesday morning.
- There has been a similar adjustment at bet365. Chicago opened +145 and has moved to +140.
- The total has also seen a lot of action. Both Pinnacle and bet365 opened with a 7.5 number and have seen movement to the Over.
- Pinnacle is trading at 8.5 with an even -106 vig on both sides as of Wednesday morning, while bet365 has the Over 8 carrying -120 juice.
Cubs vs Pirates trend
The Cubs have hit the moneyline in 28 of their last 46 games (+9.35 Units / 16% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Cubs vs. Pirates.
Cubs vs Pirates game info
| Location: | PNC Park, Pittsburgh, PA |
| Date: | Wednesday, 8-28-2024 |
| First pitch: | 12:35 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Marquee, SNP |
| Cubs starting pitcher: | Kyle Hendricks (3-10, 6.33 ERA) |
| Pirates starting pitcher: | Paul Skenes (8-2, 2.16 ERA) |
Cubs vs Pirates latest injuries
Cubs vs Pirates weather
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