The Cincinnati Reds will look to make it three in a row to sweep the Chicago Cubs at Great American Ball Park.
There were nine runs in Tuesday’s contest, and my Cubs vs. Reds predictions are calling for both offenses to put more runs on the board tonight.
My MLB picks for Wednesday, July 31 break it all down below.
Cubs vs Reds prediction
My best bet
Over 9.5 (-105 at bet365)
My analysis
Chicago Cubs veteran Kyle Hendricks has allowed nine runs on 11 hits and three walks through 10 innings over his first two starts out of the All-Star break, and the 34-year-old righty is up to a 7.77 ERA while allowing a .375 wOBA to opposing hitters as a starter.
Sure, his 4.35 xFIP and .332 BABIP suggest he’s had some tough luck, but the poor results also align with allowing a higher exit velocity, launch angle, and barrel percentage, per FanGraphs. Hendricks has never been overpowering and succeeded in the past with precision and a smoke-and-mirrors pitch mix that kept hitters off balance.
Unfortunately, the smoke has cleared, and the mirrors are broken.
Turning to Cincinnati Reds starter Nick Lodolo, he’s having a much better season and is a promising young arm with three plus pitches. Lodolo just hasn’t been as sharp at hitter-friendly Great American Ball Park with a 4.05 ERA, 1.39 WHIP, and 4.50 xFIP this season and respective 4.19, 1.46, and 3.84 marks for his career. Additionally, opposing hitters have squared him up for a healthy .361 wOBA over 135 1/3 career innings at home and a .343 mark this year.
Finally, both the Cubs and Reds are eyeing offensive statistical correction. Chicago has only scored 2.6 runs per game with a 29th-ranked .258 wOBA and 30th-ranked .241 BABIP since the All-Star break, and Cincy hasn’t been much better. The Reds have scored 4.1 runs per game with a 26th-ranked .290 wOBA and 20th-ranked .272 BABIP
Cubs vs Reds same-game parlay (SGP)
Over 9.5
Reds moneyline
Nick Lodolo 5+ strikeouts
Cincinnati has a huge advantage on the mound and even with Lodolo’s highlighted ho-hum home metrics, Hendricks is serving up batting practice numbers. Chicago has also been strikeout-prone against righties with its 23.8 K% rate ranking 10th highest, and Lodolo has fanned 13 over his two starts out of the All-Star break.
I also recommend this same-game parlay through bet365 because it’s priced at just +307 through FanDuel. The difference checks out as a positive expected value of 11%.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Cubs vs Reds odds
Cubs vs Reds live odds
Cubs vs Reds opening odds
- Run line: Chicago +1.5 (-155) | Cincinnati -1.5 (+130)
- Moneyline: Chicago +130 | Cincinnati -155
- Over/Under: Over 9 (-110) | Under 9 (-110)
Cubs vs Reds spread and Over/Under analysis
- Cincy opened as a -155 favorite through bet365 and is trading at -150 as of Wednesday morning, while the numbers have only moved a single cent off the opening lines at Pinnacle.
- The total has seen an adjustment at both shops, with action coming in on the Over.
- Both Pinnacle and bet365 have moved off the opening 9.0 total and are trading at 9.5 with the Under carrying the higher vig as of Wednesday morning.
Cubs vs Reds trend
Kyle Hendricks has allowed nine runs on 11 hits and three walks through 10 innings over his two starts out of the All-Star break. Find more MLB betting trends for Cubs vs. Reds
Cubs vs Reds game info
| Location: | Great American Ballpark, Cincinnati, OH |
| Date: | Wednesday, 7-31-2024 |
| First pitch: | 7:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Marquee, Bally Sports Ohio |
| Cubs starting pitcher: | Kyle Hendricks (2-9, 6.95 ERA) |
| Reds starting pitcher: | Nick Lodolo (8-3, 3.45 ERA) |
Cubs vs Reds latest injuries
Cubs vs Reds weather
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