The Miami Marlins broke a nine-game losing skid with a 10-3 victory over the St. Louis Cardinals to avoid their third series sweep to open the young season.
Miami is a short MLB odds underdog tonight when they meet a New York Yankees club riding a two-game winning streak at Yankee Stadium.
Lefty Jesus Luzardo is expected to toe the slab for the Marlins, while fellow southpaw Nestor Cortes Jr. goes for the Yankees.
Can the Marlins pull off the inter-league upset and rattle off back-to-back wins? I break this matchup down with free MLB picks for Marlins vs. Yankees on Monday, April 8.
Marlins vs Yankees odds
Marlins vs Yankees predictions
New York Yankees starter Nestor Cortes Jr. spent much of last season on the IL with various ailments and struggled when he did take the mound.
Cortes understandably got rocked in the Grapefruit League trying to return to form, but his strikeouts during the spring were encouraging as he fanned 16 hitters over 14 frames and looked ready to rumble.
Things haven’t looked quite the same for Cortes since the team headed north. He’s still getting slapped around a bit, and his struggles primarily involve getting out of the first inning unscathed. The opening stanza has been a nightmare for the southpaw. He’s fallen behind hitters early, and the jam-saving punchouts from spring and throughout his career haven’t been there. As a result, he has surrendered three first-inning runs in each of his two starts.
He has typically pitched better thereafter, but his 6.80 whiffs per nine are three below his career average. His walks are up, and the Miami Marlins are coming in hot after scoring 10 runs against the Cardinals.
The Marlins offense has been non-existent through their first nine games. The Fish don’t score much or hit many home runs, but they also don’t strike out too frequently, either. That will make it tough for Cortes to clear 5.5 strikeouts today.
Miami's lumber is confident and has a solid history against the Yankees' southpaw, striking out six times over 34 plate appearances and recording nine hits with one extra-base hit against the Bronx Bombers lefty.
Finally, Cortes' first-inning struggles are real, as is his career 48.5% fly ball rate. Expect both to come into play tonight with the wind blowing out to center field.
Cortes' trend of low strikeout totals will likely continue today against a Marlins offense with a 21% K rate against southpaws this season and minimal strikeout history against the Yankees hurler. Cortes has failed to clear 5.5 strikeouts in both starts, and Miami's contact-laden approach will make it three in a row.
My best bet: Nestor Cortes Jr. Under 5.5 strikeouts (+106 at FanDuel)
Marlins vs Yankees same-game parlay
Nestor Cortes Jr. Under 5.5 strikeouts
Tim Anderson to record a hit
Yankees moneyline
Our three-leg, same-game parlay ticket would make a great start to the week, and I like how it correlates with our best bet.
Marlins shortstop Tim Anderson has gone 5-for-11 against Cortes and enters this matchup riding a three-game hitting streak. I like him to get a hit tonight against the Yankees starter, but I also expect the Yankees to win this game.
Miami starter Jesus Luzardo is a big strikeout pitcher, but the Yankees' sticks slash .306/.359/.528 against the Marlins southpaw. New York is riding a two-game winning streak at Yankee Stadium, boasting the better bullpen, and should come out on top over the struggling Marlins.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Marlins vs Yankees moneyline and Over/Under analysis
- There’s been a bit of back and forth between Miami and New York backers, but the Yankees are still as high as -162 favorite to beat the Marlins.
- Over 8 runs opened +100 at some US markets, but those odds have increased to -120.
- Over 8.5 bettors are looking at market odds of -102 with a consensus Over 8 (-120).
- Under 8 markets have the best odds (+100 to -105), while Under 8.5 markets report prices of -118.
Trend to know
The Yankees are 5-0 in Cortes’ last five home starts vs. a team with a losing record. Find more MLB betting trends for Marlins vs. Yankees.
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Marlins vs Yankees game info
| Location: | Yankee Stadium, Bronx, NY |
| Date: | Monday, April 8, 2024 |
| First pitch: | 6:05 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Bally Sports Florida, YES |
Starting pitchers
Jesus Luzardo (0-1, 4.35 ERA): The Marlins lefty is making his third start today. He’s struck out 13 across 10 1/3 frames with a 0.99 WHIP, and he has a chance to get back on track as the Yankees are one of the worst offenses against left-handed pitching.
Nestor Cortes (0-1, 6.30 ERA): The Yankees southpaw has allowed 13 hits with seven punchouts over 10 innings but might catch a break in his first home start against the third-worst offense in baseball against lefties.
