The hapless Miami Marlins will continue a series with the New York Yankees tonight at Yankee Stadium.
It wasn't pretty for Miami last night against New York as the story of its ugly start continued. The Yankees struck early and often to win by a final score of 7-0. The loss gave Miami its 10th of the year in 11 games.
Read on for my free MLB picks and Yankees vs. Marlins predictions on Tuesday, April 7.
Marlins vs Yankees prediction
My best bet
Yankees -1.5 (+105 at bet365)
My analysis
The Miami Marlins are among the worst teams in baseball based on what they've shown us for almost two weeks of the season.
The Marlins will enter today with the worst record in baseball and are tied with the Rockies for the worst run differential to boot. They haven't just lost games, they've lost them badly, and I see no sign of it changing anytime soon. The Yankees to win by two or more at +105 is a good edge against my projection of -120.
AJ Puk will get the start for the Marlins, and he's coming off two starts where he failed to go over four innings. His most recent was better than his first, but it still sounded the alarm when he allowed two earned runs on five hits in just four frames against the Los Angeles Angels.
What's more troubling than the runs allowed are the underlying metrics that have come with them. Puk recorded a walk rate of just over 25% in two starts, easily the highest in his career. He should be expected to improve from that small sample as the season goes on, but at 29, command issues are likely just part of his game.
Continuing this trend against the New York Yankees would be a problem. New York has Aaron Judge and Juan Soto, two of the most patient hitters. Along with that, it's third in baseball in walk rate. This isn't the type of offense you want to give free passes to, but that will happen if things go to form.
I'll back the Yankees to cause havoc and blow this one wide open.
Marlins vs Yankees same-game parlay
Yankees -1.5
Juan Soto to record a run
I'm pairing my best bet with Soto to record a run. It follows the same line of thinking as my best bet.
Puk has severely struggled with command issues through two starts, and it's something that plagued him earlier in his career. Soto has some of the best plate vision in baseball, and I'll back him to take advantage of that to get on base and eventually score.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Marlins vs Yankees odds
Marlins vs Yankees live odds
Marlins vs Yankees opening odds
- Run line: Miami +1.5 (-126) | New York -1.5 (+105)
- Moneyline: Miami +164 | New York -196
- Over/Under: Over 8 (-110) | Under 8 (-105)
Marlins vs Yankees spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Yankees' hot start has netted moneyline bettors 7.1 units in profit.
- The opposite is the case for the Marlins, who lost a total of -7.7 units to bettors.
- The Over has hit in seven of the last 10 Marlins games.
Marlins vs Yankees trend
The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Over in 23 of their last 37 games at home (+9.70 Units / 24% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Marlins vs. Yankees
Marlins vs Yankees game info
| Location: | Yankees Stadium, Bronx, NY |
| Date: | Tuesday, 4-9-2024 |
| First pitch: | 7:05 p.m. ET |
| TV: | BSFL, YES |
| Marlins starting pitcher: | A.J. Puk (0-2, 9.00 ERA) |
| Yankees starting pitcher: | Carlos Rodon (0-0, 2.79 ERA) |
Marlins vs Yankees Latest injuries
Marlins vs Yankees Weather
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