Two teams looking to move up the standings in their respective divisions meet on Friday as the New York Mets (67-61) visit the San Diego Padres (72-57).
After the Mets took Game 1 by a score of 8-3, the Padres will look for a quick response. Manny Machado can help make that happen.
Read on for my Mets vs. Padres predictions and MLB picks for Friday, August 23.
Mets vs Padres prediction
My best bet
Manny Machado Over 1.5 total bases (+125 at bet365)
Best odds available in your region
My analysis
The weather forecast appears to be pitcher friendly on Friday night with 10-11 mph winds blowing in toward the first base sideline. The books have priced the total at 7.5 despite both starting pitchers holding ERAs in the 4.00s, so the expectation is for a lower-scoring game.
While I’m not challenging that assumption and I’m not playing the Over, I do want to take a closer look at the starting pitchers to determine if they warrant a lowered total. Paul Blackburn of the New York Mets is of particular interest as he faces a dangerous San Diego Padres lineup with the second-best wRC+ (115) against right-handed pitching.
One thing that stands out about Blackburn’s profile is he has severe reverse splits. He’s held lefties to a .201 BA and .253 wOBA but has been torched by righties (.281 BA and .365 wOBA).
The 30-year-old holds a 5.61 FIP and 1.47 WHIP against right-handed bats. If those numbers stood in isolation, we’d be targeting Blackburn as a “fade” pitcher in the market rather than assuming the weather will help him pitch to a low-scoring contest.
He’s also seen a run of poor performances away from home as his 5.59 ERA and 5.08 FIP on the road pale in comparison to his home numbers (2.75 ERA, 3.58 FIP).
One right-handed San Diego bat with something to gain from this matchup is Manny Machado, who has a long track record of hitting well against pitchers of either handedness. He has solid xBA and xSLG numbers against the sinker, cutter, and four-seamer — pitches that Blackburn throws 18-21 percent of the time, respectively, against righties without much success.
Mets vs Padres same-game parlay (SGP)
Manny Machado Over 1.5 total bases
Joe Musgrove Over 5.5 strikeouts
Padres moneyline
Joe Musgrove hasn’t been quite right this season and the National League hasn’t been the same without his steadying presence. He’s amassed a 4.97 ERA across just 12 starts, sitting on the IL from late May until mid-August.
Despite a rough start to the year, he seems healthy now and has allowed one earned run or fewer in each of his last four starts. His 12.8% swinging strike rate is the highest it has been since 2020 and Ks can be had against this Mets lineup (23.5% K rate against RHP in the last 15 days).
If Musgrove truly is back to normal, then San Diego has an advantage at starting pitcher and in the lineup. Considering the Padres also have the league’s best FIP (2.45) and xFIP (2.65) out of the bullpen in August, it’s hard not to back them in this spot.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Mets vs Padres odds
Mets vs Padres live odds
Mets vs Padres opening odds
- Moneyline: New York +119 | San Diego -129
- Run line: New York +1.5 | San Diego -1.5
- Over/Under: Over 7.5 | Under 7.5
Mets vs Padres moneyline and Over/Under analysis
- Both starting pitchers have been winners this year — Blackburn’s teams (Oakland, New York) have won nine of his 13 starts while the Padres are 5-3 in Musgrove’s last eight starts.
- The Padres are on fire, winning 13 of their last 18 games overall and 15 of their last 20 against the National League.
- The Padres have cashed the Over in 24 of their last 33 games.
Mets vs Padres trend
Blackburn has allowed at least one right-handed hitter to record two or more total bases against him in nine of his last 10 starts. Find more MLB betting trends for Mets vs. Padres.
Mets vs Padres game info
| Location: | Petco Park, San Diego, CA |
| Date: | Friday, 8-23-2024 |
| First pitch: | 9:40 p.m. ET |
| TV: | SNY, SDPA |
| Mets starting pitcher: | Paul Blackburn (5-3, 4.19 ERA) |
| Padres starting pitcher: | Joe Musgrove (3-4, 4.97 ERA) |
Mets vs Padres latest injuries
Mets vs Padres weather
Not intended for use in MA.
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