The New York Mets will look to build off their first win of the year as they visit the Cincinnati Reds for the start of a three-game series on Friday night.
The Mets (1-5) finally got their first win of the season on Thursday, as they rallied for two runs in the ninth inning to beat the Detroit Tigers 2-1. The Reds (4-2) are off to a much better start, having won each of their first two series of the year, and they're the MLB odds favorite to add another one to the win column tonight.
New York hasn’t been able to score runs so far this season, while Cincinnati’s offense has carried it to a solid start. We’ll break down what to expect in tonight’s game in our free MLB picks and predictions for Mets vs. Reds on Friday, April 5.
Mets vs Reds odds
Mets vs Reds predictions
When Pete Alonso hit a home run in the ninth inning for the New York Mets on Thursday, it sparked a rally that gave his team a little relief after losing its first five games of the season. However, it did little to solve the problems the Mets offense has been facing so far this year.
The Mets are averaging just 2.17 runs per game so far this year. The team is hitting only .173 with an OPS of .538, both of which rank dead-last in the majors. Outside of Francisco Alvarez and Alonso, nobody has been able to get anything done for New York on offense, with Jeff McNeil, Francisco Lindor, and Brandon Nimmo all hitting under .100 on the year.
Things may not get any easier for them tonight. Hunter Greene is coming off a solid first start to this season, and the weather in Cincinnati will be cold and rainy. The Mets are countering with Jose Quintana, who is off to a solid start himself. However, he’ll face off against a Cincinnati Reds lineup that is averaging a strong 5.67 runs per game to start the year.
With the Mets struggling to produce anything at the plate, they won’t be able to score enough to stay with the Reds tonight. I’m taking Cincinnati to win outright at home.
My best bet: Reds moneyline (-120 at FanDuel)
Mets vs Reds same-game parlay
Reds moneyline
Under 9
Hunter Greene Under 7.5 strikeouts
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I like the Reds to win tonight, and I’m going to pair that with a bet on the Under for our same-game parlay. The Mets aren’t scoring but have enjoyed solid pitching, and tonight’s game will be cold with the chance of some scattered rain. That should lead to a miserable, low-scoring night for these offenses.
I’m also taking the Under on Greene’s strikeout prop. It’s hard to say how long Greene will pitch after going just 4 2/3 innings in his first start. In addition, the Mets are one of the lowest strikeout teams in the league offensively, so 7.5 strikeouts is just too high for Greene tonight.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Mets vs Reds moneyline and Over/Under analysis
- The Reds opened this game as -124 favorites. Some books are now offering -120 on Cincinnati, with the Mets available at +105.
- New York has lost more than five units on the moneyline this season, while the Reds have won two units for bettors.
- Tonight’s total opened at 9. That remains the consensus Over/Under, with -110 available on both sides.
- The Over has gone 5-1 when the Reds play this season. The Under has a 4-2 edge in New York’s first six games of 2024.
Trend to know
The Mets are 4-10 in Quintana’s last 14 starts. Find more MLB betting trends for Mets vs. Reds
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Mets vs Reds game info
| Location: | Great American Ball Park, Cincinnati, OH |
| Date: | Friday, April 5, 2024 |
| First pitch: | 6:40 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Apple TV+ |
Starting pitchers
Jose Quintana (0-1, 3.86 ERA): Quintana gave the Mets a solid start in his debut this year, allowing two runs over 4 2/3 innings against the Milwaukee Brewers on Opening Day. Once a strikeout pitcher, Quintana has morphed into pitching to contact over the past three seasons, doing an excellent job of keeping the ball in the park and giving up less than a hit per inning.
Hunter Greene (0-0, 3.86 ERA): Greene has shown plenty of promise over his first two seasons with the Reds but hasn’t yet produced great results, pitching to a 4.61 ERA. The 24-year-old allowed two runs on five hits over 4 2/3 innings while striking out seven in his first start this year.
