The New York Mets will try to earn a series win against one of the best teams in the majors as they host the Baltimore Orioles at Citi Field on Wednesday afternoon.
Baltimore picked up a win on Tuesday to move back into the AL East lead, but it’s home favorites I’m targeting with my Orioles vs. Mets prediction.
Baltimore has had to call up a pitcher on Wednesday. I’ll look at how that impacts the matchup in my free MLB picks for August 21.
Orioles vs Mets prediction
My best bet
Mets moneyline (-132 at FanDuel)
My analysis
The Baltimore Orioles placed starter Zach Eflin on the 15-day injured list on Tuesday night due to shoulder inflammation, forcing the team to find someone else to take the mound on Wednesday. With most other options on short rest, the Orioles are calling up Cole Irvin against the New York Mets in the series finale.
Irvin last took the mound for Baltimore in late July after making five appearances out of the bullpen — usually as a long man — after previously acting primarily as a starter for most of the season. In 14 starts, Irvin went 6-4 with a 4.06 ERA, averaging 5.38 innings per outing.
Irvin hasn’t been wholly ineffective for the Orioles, and his versatility has been an asset at times for the franchise. But the 30-year-old has never been much of a threat to finish off hitters, averaging just 6.3 strikeouts per nine innings on the season with a 1.405 WHIP.
Those aren’t numbers that bode well against a Mets lineup averaging 4.78 runs per game and once again showing its length in recent days.
The Orioles also boast a formidable lineup, but the Mets have a much more reliable answer in the form of veteran lefty Sean Manaea. The 32-year-old is 9-5 with a 3.46 ERA, and has remained solid down the stretch.
While the Mets have struggled to fill out a strong rotation without the injured Kodai Senga, Manaea is 3-1 with a 2.25 ERA in his last four starts, striking out 28 batters in 24 innings while allowing just a single homer.
Manaea will be in for a battle with the Baltimore lineup, which can test the best of pitchers. But at least we can be relatively certain that Manaea can give the Mets some innings, while Baltimore will likely be scrambling to mix and match arms throughout the afternoon, as there’s no guarantee Irvin can give them even five good innings in his return to the MLB level.
While Baltimore is the better team in a vacuum, the Orioles find themselves in an awkward spot on Wednesday as they try to patch together a pitching staff. I’m going with the Mets to win outright today.
Orioles vs Mets same-game parlay (SGP)
Mets moneyline
Over 8.5
Brandon Nimmo 1+ hits
The Mets should be able to grab a series win at home this afternoon, but this will also be another excellent opportunity for both lineups to put up runs against shaky pitching. I’m taking these explosive offenses to hit the Over today for the second leg of my same-game parlay.
To round out my SGP, I’ll take Mets outfielder Brandon Nimmo to pick up at least one hit. Nimmo has hit in four straight games and is a solid bet to continue his mini-streak against Irvin and whomever else the Orioles pull out of the bullpen on Wednesday.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Orioles vs Mets odds
Orioles vs Mets live odds
Orioles vs Mets opening odds
- Moneyline: Baltimore +105 | New York -125
- Run line: Baltimore +2 (-190) | New York -2 (+160)
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 (-110) | Under 8.5 (-110)
Orioles vs Mets moneyline and Over/Under analysis
- The Orioles have won about three units on the moneyline this season, with the Mets having dropped a bit more than a unit for backers in 2024.
- New York has put up a 16-8 record with Manaea as its starting pitcher this season. Baltimore is 9-5 when Irvin has started for them, which he hasn’t done since June 30.
- The Mets and Orioles have hit the Over in seven of their last 10 meetings.
- Baltimore is playing to an average total of 9.38 runs, with New York averaging a total of 9.35 runs per game.
Orioles vs Mets trend
The Mets are 8-2 in Manaea’s last 10 starts. Find more MLB betting trends for Orioles vs. Mets.
Orioles vs Mets game info
| Location: | Citi Field, Flushing, Queens |
| Date: | Wednesday, 8-21-2024 |
| First pitch: | 1:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: | MASN, SNY |
| Orioles starting pitcher: | Zach Eflin (9-7, 3.72 ERA) |
| Mets starting pitcher: | Sean Manaea (9-5, 3.46 ERA) |
Orioles vs Mets latest injuries
Orioles vs Mets weather
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