The two best teams in the AL East are squaring off when the New York Yankees welcome the Baltimore Orioles to town for a three-game stand.
After losing its first series in quite a while to the Boston Red Sox over the weekend, the Yankees are now .500 in their last 10 games. In addition, it's seen its AL East lead shortened to just 1.5 games. That makes this series even more critical as Baltimore on their tail, having gone 8-2 in its last 10 games.
Read on for my free Orioles vs. Yankees predictions and MLB picks for Tuesday, June 18 featuring a chance to make some money before this game even goes final.
Orioles vs Yankees prediction
My best bet
Orioles F5 moneyline (+120 at bet365)
My analysis
The wrong team is favored here. A big reason is that the Baltimore Orioles have a significant advantage on the mound. With that in mind, I'm isolating some of this game and playing the first five innings moneyline.
Nestor Cortes will take the mound for the New York Yankees tonight, and there are some troubling metrics for him in this matchup. He was always going to regress from what we saw last season, and that's happened, seeing jumps in his expected batting average and barrel rate, amongst other items.
The key metric is how hard Cortes has been hit this season. He'll enter today with a rating that places him at the Bottom 20% of the sport in hard-hit rate and against a lineup like Baltimore, that is a significant concern.
Baltimore will come in today with the best hard-hit rating in baseball and the second-best barrel rate. That makes them the only team in baseball amongst the Top 3 in both metrics. It also gives them a serious argument for the most potent offense in baseball, a title they'd compete directly with New York for. Getting them at plus money against a pitcher who has had issues giving up the hard-hit ball is difficult to pass on, and I won't do it.
If you look back at some of the worst games Cortes has had, they have, unsurprisingly, come against teams who hit the ball hard:
- Four earned runs allowed against the Los Angeles Dodgers, who rank fourth in hard-hit rate and second in barrel rate.
- Four earned runs allowed against the Houston Astros, who rank eighth in both metrics.
- Four earned runs allowed against this same Orioles team earlier this season.
That's three of the five times he's allowed four earned or more this season, coming against teams that rank in the Top 10 of both metrics. I see no reason why the Orioles don't have a similar performance against Cortes to the one they had earlier this year.
Orioles vs Yankees same-game parlay (SGP)
Orioles F5 moneyline
Adley Rutschmann Over 1.5 total bases
Adley Rutschman is one of the best hitters in baseball against left-handed pitching and he'll see one tonight in Cortes, so we're pairing him with our best bet.
Rutschman will enter today with the second-best batting average against left-handers in baseball, along with a Top-25 isolated power rating. He's among the few players in the sport in the Top 25 of both metrics, making him a perfect fit for this matchup.
Outside of that, Rutschman has excellent power. He is fifth overall in hard-hit rate among the Orioles but comfortably above the league average. With that in mind, he should be well-suited to attack Cortes' main weaknesses.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Orioles vs Yankees odds
Orioles vs Yankees live odds
Orioles vs Yankees opening odds
- Run line: Baltimore +1.5 (-162) | New York -1.5 (+134)
- Moneyline: Baltimore +128 | New York -152
- Over/Under: Over 9 | Under 9
Orioles vs Yankees spread and Over/Under analysis
- Baltimore has dominated this head-to-head series recently with seven wins in the last 10 games.
- The total has been priced quite accurately in these meetings as indicated by three pushes and a 4-3 Over record in the other seven.
- Baltimore has won eight of the last 10 games and netted bettors over four units in that period.
- New York is 5-5 in its last 10 games, resulting in a slight loss for their backers in that sample.
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Orioles vs Yankees trend
The Yankees have covered the run line in 29 of their last 40 games (+22.55 Units / 48% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Orioles vs. Yankees
Orioles vs Yankees game info
| Location: | Yankee Stadium, Bronx, NY |
| Date: | Tuesday, 6-18-2024 |
| First pitch: | 7:05 p.m. ET |
| TV: | MASN, YES |
| Orioles starting pitcher: | Albert Suarez (3-0, 1.61 ERA) |
| Yankees starting pitcher: | Nestor Cortes (3-5, 3.59 ERA) |
Orioles vs Yankees latest injuries
Orioles vs Yankees weather
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