The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit a wall at the most crucial point of the season, dropping five of the past six games headed into this crucial matchup against the San Diego Padres.
My Padres vs. Diamondbacks predictions see Arizona earning a much-needed victory, with leadoff hitter Corbin Carroll playing a big part in the process. Let’s dive into my MLB picks for September 29.
Padres vs Diamondbacks prediction
My best bet
Corbin Carroll Over 1.5 H+R+RBI (-115 at DraftKings)
Best odds available in your region
My analysis
Martin Perez is a pitch-to-contact starter who gives up a lot of hits, and he has an especially difficult time against left-handed bats — allowing a .283 average on the season.
Serving as the Arizona Diamondbacks' leadoff hitter, the left-handed Corbin Carroll will see Perez as much or more as anybody else on the roster.
Playing in the friendly hitting environment that is Chase Field will also serve as a boost for Carroll. He's teed off on opponents at home for months, recording two H+R+RBI or more in 24 of the past 30 games in Arizona.
The San Diego Padres can’t move up or down based on the result of this game. They’re firmly locked in as the top Wild Card seed, which means their primary focus is staying healthy, and they’ll be managing with an eye towards Tuesday.
In a favorable matchup with the season on the line, I expect the red-hot Carroll to continue building on his home success and lead the charge for the Diamondbacks.
Padres vs Diamondbacks same-game parlay (SGP)
Corbin Carroll Over 1.5 H+R+RBI
Eugenio Suarez Over 1.5 H+R+RBI
Diamondbacks moneyline
Eugenio Suarez disappointed against the Padres on Saturday, but I love his chances of bouncing back in what’s essentially a do-or-die game for the Diamondbacks.
The veteran has smashed left-handed pitching this season, particularly when playing at Chase Field. He's sporting a .341 average, a .406 on-base percentage, and a .418 xwOBA against lefties in AZ.
Suarez is also chasing some very achievable milestones. He’s one homer away from 30 and one RBI shy of hitting 100. What better way to end the season than hitting a milestone or two in an effort to try and push your team into the playoffs?
Playing Arizona on the moneyline is naturally the third leg of this parlay. If Carroll and Suarez have successful nights at the plate, the Diamondbacks will have a great chance of earning a win.
Not to mention, the D-backs will be leaving no stone unturned in terms of bullpen usage, etc., while the Padres will likely be a lot more conservative with their top arms.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Padres vs Diamondbacks odds
Padres vs Diamondbacks live odds
Padres vs Diamondbacks opening odds
- Moneyline: San Diego +150 | Arizona -180
- Run line: San Diego +1.5 (-130) | Arizona -1.5 (+110)
- Over/Under: Over 9 (+100) | Under 9 (-120)
Padres vs Diamondbacks moneyline and Over/Under analysis
- The Diamondbacks have once again taken plenty of money and are trading at -190 on bet365.
- The total remains at 9.0 on bet365 but the under is slightly favored at -120.
- The Diamondbacks have hit the team total Over in 21 of their last 33 games at home (+7.25 Units / 19% ROI)
Padres vs Diamondbacks trend
Corbin Carroll has averaged 3.1 H+R+RBI over his last 20 games in Arizona. Find more MLB betting trends for Padres vs. Diamondbacks.
Padres vs Diamondbacks game info
| Location: | Chase Field, Phoenix, AZ |
| Date: | Sunday, 9-29-2024 |
| First pitch: | 3:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: | SDPA, ARID |
| Padres starting pitcher: | Martin Perez (5-5, 4.25 ERA) |
| Diamondbacks starting pitcher: | Brandon Pfaadt (10-10, 4.80 ERA) |
Padres vs Diamondbacks latest injuries
Padres vs Diamondbacks weather
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