The Boston Red Sox and Houston Astros wrap up a three-game set at Minute Maid Park on Wednesday afternoon. Houston ace Justin Verlander returns to the mound for the first time since June, but my Red Sox vs. Astros predictions don't see his day going very well.
Here are my best free MLB picks for this AL clash on August 21.
Red Sox vs Astros prediction
My best bet
Red Sox team total Over 3.5 (-135 at bet365)
My analysis
Justin Verlander is a nine-time All-Star but the Houston Astros hurler is now 41 years old and is clearly on the decline. At his peak in 2018 and 2019, Verlander had an OBA of .186 with a strikeout rate of 35.1%. But since the start of last season his OBA has climbed to .230 while his strikeout rate has plummeted to 21.5%.
Verlander began the year on the IL due to inflammation in his throwing shoulder and after 10 starts he went back to the IL with a neck injury. He hasn't pitched since June 9, when he surrendered four runs with just three strikeouts in five innings against the Angels.
The future Hall of Famer made a rehab start at Corpus Christi last Saturday where he threw 57 pitches. Although he looked sharp in that outing, there's a massive jump from the Double-A level to the majors, where he's been shaky this year. He has allowed 4+ runs in four of his last seven MLB outings and his three quality starts during that span came against three of the worst offenses in the majors (the Mariners, A's, and Tigers) at pitcher-friendly venues.
Now the right-hander faces a highly productive Boston Red Sox lineup that is loaded with lefties. The Red Sox are second in the majors in batting average (.261) and third in OPS (.769). They've been even better since the All-Star break, batting .281 with an OPS of .830.
With the BoSox averaging an impressive 5.25 runs per game on the road, take the Over 3.5 on their team total today.
Red Sox vs Astros same-game parlay (SGP)
Red Sox team total Over 3.5
Justin Verlander Under 4.5 strikeouts
Cooper Criswell Under 1.5 walks allowed
Verlander has thrown just 52 and 57 pitches, respectively, in a pair of rehab stints, so he'll likely be on a pitch count which will limit his strikeout numbers. Keep in mind that he has thrown fewer than 4.5 strikeouts in seven of his last 11 starts, and that's with a full workload.
Cooper Criswell gets the pill for Boston and while he's struggled out of the bullpen over the last month, he's been more effective as a starter. Criswell is in the Top 30th percentile in walk rate (6.5%) and has allowed fewer than two walks in 10 of 13 starts. The Astros have the fourth-lowest walk rate (7.2%) in the majors.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Red Sox vs Astros odds
Red Sox vs Astros live odds
Red Sox vs Astros opening odds
- Moneyline: Boston +125 | Houston -150
- Run line: Boston +1.5 (-170) | Houston -1.5 (+145)
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 (-115) | Under 8.5 (-105)
Red Sox vs Astros moneyline and Over/Under analysis
- The Red Sox beat the Astros 6-5 last night to improve their record to 65-59.
- Despite that loss, the Astros are 11-2 in their last 13 and sit atop the NL West with a 68-57 mark.
- Criswell has a 4.02 ERA with a 1.23 WHIP across 62 2/3 innings as a starter, while he has a 7.30 ERA with a 2.03 WHIP in six appearances as a reliever.
- Boston is plating 5.78 runs per game since the start of July but has also surrendered a whopping 5.93 runs per game during that span.
Red Sox vs Astros trend
The Red Sox have hit the team total Over in 41 of their last 61 games on the road (+16.95 Units / 23% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Red Sox vs. Astros.
Red Sox vs Astros game info
| Location: | Minute Maid Park, Houston, TX |
| Date: | Wednesday, 8-21-2024 |
| First pitch: | 2:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: | NESN, SCHN |
| Red Sox starting pitcher: | Cooper Criswell (5-4, 4.56 ERA) |
| Astros starting pitcher: | Justin Verlander (3-2, 3.95 ERA) |
Red Sox vs Astros latest injuries
Red Sox vs Astros weather
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